Whorl steel is short-term maintain oscillation to slant weak

  • Dec, 04th 2018

In the market pessimism of macroscopical to home economy anticipates with terminal demand glides considerably below expectant resonance impact, market of domestic steel products appears to drop considerably continuously situation. Merchandise on hand of steel of Shanghai area whorl (HRB400 20mm) from November 4700 yuan first / ton drop considerably 17.66% reach 3870 yuan / ton; Agreement of brunt of whorl steel futures 1905 from November first highest 3805 yuan / ton drop to lowest all the way 3179 yuan / ton, the biggest drop extent is achieved 16.45% . Half of care of happy event of current economy data, finance goes lever still lasts, supply add fast somewhat slow down, but demand whether maintain existence uncertainty, together with steelworks and social inventory split up, market of steel of later period whorl will appear oscillation to slant weak situation.

Data of A country economy is fond of care half

Accompanying project of domestic numerous capital construction of policy of progressively be born, imports and exports come on stage reach carry out, the foreign trade of drive economy and investment target present improving evidence, but consumption continues bear pressure, and manufacturing industry dilate already also was immersed in backwater condition, domestic economy data is fond of care half.

The graph adds fast change for the drive index of domestic economy

From the point of investment, the end that rectifies to PPP project as superintendency layer and numerous already approved funds of capital construction project reach the designated position, investment is added fast glide the trend gets turning round. Statistical bureau data shows, 1, October, domestic fixed assets invests accumulative total to achieve 54.76 trillion yuan, grow 5.7% compared to the same period, add fast relatively before 9 months are 0.3 tall percent. From the point of foreign trade, in the government the support of policy of multinomial imports and exports falls, foreign trade is added fast also pick up somewhat. Data of statistic of customs total office shows, 1, in October, forehead of Chinese foreign trade reachs 3.84 trillion dollar, grow 16.1% compared to the same period, add fast relatively before 9 months are 0.3 tall percent. This shows domestic economy gets be carryinged certainly brace up, and industry was added in October fast pick up criterion from confirm of a flank afore-mentioned results. Statistical bureau data shows, in October, chinese industry increases a value to grow 5.9% compared to the same period, add fast relatively 0.1 tall in September percent, ended the trend of further fall after a rise temporarily.

Nevertheless, domestic consumption is added fast glide continuously reach manufacturing industry dilate to be immersed in backwater to show economic level still bears pressure of greater be issued to lower levels. Statistical bureau data shows, 1, October, total volume of retail sales of domestic society consumable achieves 30.98 trillion yuan, grow 9.2% compared to the same period, add fast relatively the corresponding period is low last year 1.1 percent, relatively before 9 moons are small 0.1 percent. Among them, consumable turnover grew 8.6% compared to the same period in October, add fast relatively the corresponding period is low last year 1.4 percent, relatively low in September 0.6 percent, no matter be accumulative total,add compared to the same period fast still add compared to the same period that month fast the trend that all presents to glide further.

Consumption is added fast glide further while, manufacturing industry dilate is basic sink backwater. Statistical bureau data shows, index of PMI of domestic manufacturing industry signed up for in November 50% , relatively the corresponding period is low last year 1.6 percent, relatively low in October 0.2 percent, as it happens of index of manufacturing industry PMI falls at " vicissitude line " on, mean backwater of sink of dilate of domestic manufacturing industry. From divide an index to look, production and new order index glide further, manufactured goods inventory is accumulated somewhat, producer price appears considerably fall after a rise. Statistical bureau data shows, production and new order index fell respectively in November 0.1 come with 0.4 percent 51.9% with 50.4% , index of manufactured goods stock rises 1.5 percent come 48.6% , producer price index falls 5.6 percent come 46.4% . Producer price index considerably fall after a rise while, index of manufactured goods stock rises, this means later period whole manufacturing industry may be immersed in atrophic pattern further, also bring pressure of be issued to lower levels to domestic economy then, commodity market especially industrial product market will be faced with certain concussion.

B finance goes lever still is undertaking

Current, domestic banking goes lever still is undertaking. The money is supplied add fast go low continuously, social financing dimensions also continues to carry the state with contractive whole. Supply from the money in light of, narrow sense and supply of broad sense money are added fast all glide further. Data of statistic of Chinese people bank shows, in October supply of narrow sense money (M1) achieve 54.01 trillion yuan, grow 2.7% compared to the same period, add fast relatively the corresponding period is low last year 10.3 percent, relatively low in September 1.3 percent, whole continues to maintain glide trend; Supply of broad sense money (M2) achieve one hundred and seventy-nine thousand five hundred and sixty billion yuan, grow 8% compared to the same period, add fast relatively the corresponding period is low last year 0.9 percent, relatively low in September 0.3 percent, whole appears likewise continue to glide trend. M2 is added compared to the same period fast add compared to the same period with M1 fast poor value also appears to enlarge a trend further, poor in October value is 5.3% , photograph comparing enlarged a percent in September.

Supply in the money add fast glide continuously below setting, social financing dimensions also presents contractive state. Data of statistic of Chinese people bank shows, dimensions of financing of whole in October society 730 billion yuan, relatively the corresponding period is little last year 470 billion yuan, relatively reduced 1.44 trillion yuan in September; 1, accumulative total of dimensions of financing of whole in October society achieves 16.1 trillion yuan, relatively the corresponding period reduced 2.79 trillion yuan last year, capacity of accumulative total of social financing dimensions presents farther reductive trend.

Of course, the deposit reserve that 2.5 percent achieve through accumulative total of 3 rounds of extent inside year is led reduce, situation of insecurity of home market fluidity gets alleviating certainly really. Wind statistic data shows, up to on November 30, a lunar period mixes 1 year period Shanghai SHIBOR is torn open put interest rate to be respectively 2.7010% with 3.5270% , part relatively inside year highest when low 2.042 percent and 1.22 percent, and SHIBOR interest rate from June the last ten-day of a month answers backward whole to keep stable continuously quickly. While SHIBOR interest rate goes low, long-term bond yield also goes low continuously. Wind statistic data shows, up to on November 30, 10 years period in card national debt expires yield opens debt to expire with 10 years of period countries yield signs up for respectively 3.3698% with 3.8375% , expire yield parts relatively inside year highest when 3.9773% and 5.0207% low 0.6075 with 1.1832 percent, and expire yield appears to walk along small current further. Situation of market liquidity insecurity gets alleviating continueing to maintain for sequel go the rhythm of lever provided fundamental safeguard.

The graph is 10 years period national debt opens debt to expire with 10 years of period countries yield changes

C is supplied add fast somewhat slow down

The beginning of the year comes this year November the middle of a month, persistent usury embellish drive is worn steelworks allows to issue utmost ground to produce in policy, supply end to present the state that adds continuously. Mysteel statistic data shows, up to on November 15, the gross profit of domestic whorl steel, hot-rolling and cold rolling is 1070.96 yuan respectively / ton, 561.18 yuan / ton mix 431.71 yuan / ton, average gross profit is 1232.74 yuan respectively / ton, 1178.29 yuan / ton mix 9339.72 yuan / ton, relatively average is much 2017 59.33 yuan / ton, 219.56 yuan / ton mix 127.02 yuan / ton. Usury embellish drive is worn production of steelworks utmost ground, output of crude steel only month achieves a history ceaselessly new tall. Statistical bureau data shows, crop of domestic crude steel achieved eighty-two million five hundred and fifty-two thousand tons in October, grow 9.1% compared to the same period, add fast relatively the corresponding period is 3 high last year percent, relatively 1.6 tall in September percent, and crop achieved the history again in October new tall.

Enter in November, steelworks produces strength to be increased further. Wind statistic data shows, in November the first ten days of a month, day of domestic crude steel all produces two million four hundred and forty-five thousand two hundred tons, relatively two million four hundred and thirty-five thousand one hundred tons of the last ten-day of a month increased ten thousand one hundred tons in October, day all crude steel production continues to maintain exalted level, compare 2017 day of the corresponding period all is mixed 2.29 million tons day of the corresponding period all increased 2.265 million tons apparently 2016.

But, from November the middle ten days of a month begins, companion drops quickly considerably as rolled steel price, rolled steel profit appears to glide apparently. Mysteel statistic data shows, up to on November 30, whorl steel, hot-rolling and cold rolling gross profit sign up for 816.89 yuan respectively / ton, 489.99 yuan / ton mix 325.36 yuan / ton, relatively reduced 254.07 yuan on November 15 / ton, 71.19 yuan / ton mix 106.35 yuan / ton. Of rolled steel profit glide quickly, also make scale of domestic gain steelworks fast reduce. Wind statistic data shows, up to on November 30, number of countrywide gain steelworks is 73.01% , a week before annulus is compared is low 7.97 percent, relatively when the middle ten days of a month is highest in November low 11.04 percent. Gain steelworks counts decrease, rate of start working of blast furnace of your whole nation presents next slippery state. Wind statistic data shows, up to on November 30, rate of start working of countrywide blast furnace is 66.71% , a week before annulus is compared is low 0.83 percent, relatively when the middle ten days of a month is highest in November low 1.11 percent.

D downstream demand still puts secret worry

Since this year, estate market is in what show below adjusting control setting continuously " tenacity " supported demand of rolled steel market effectively. Estate company is passed prepare oneself, collection deposit and defer pay the means such as due to contract effectively to developing bank credit brought capital pressure, ensured the abidance of estate market is developed strong. Statistical bureau data shows, 1, October, domestic estate development invests accumulative total to achieve 9.93 trillion yuan, grow 9.7% compared to the same period, add fast although relatively before 9 moons are small 0.2 percent, but relatively the corresponding period is 1.9 high last year percent, add fast continue to maintain approaching the level of 10% . Meanwhile, because of bank credit constrictive negative impact is opposite effectively to rush, estate company takes polarity of measure of land to also be able to maintain. Statistical bureau data shows, 1, October, land purchases an area to achieve 220 million square metre, accumulative total grows 15.3% compared to the same period, add fast relatively the corresponding period is 2.4 high last year percent; Wait for development land area to achieve 438 million square metre, accumulative total grows 30.9% compared to the same period, add fast relatively the corresponding period is 33.3 high last year percent, relatively before 9 months are 2.4 tall percent, add fast begin to carry once more litre. Estate company purchases land actively, for follow-up estate development provided basic safeguard.

But, area of new go into operation of estate market building is added compared to the same period fast fall after a rise and building complete area reduce scope compared to the same period expand to show estate market secret worry still exists. Statistical bureau data shows, 1, October, accumulative total of area of domestic building new go into operation grows 16.3% compared to the same period, add fast relatively before 9 moons are small 0.1 percent; Accumulative total of area of domestic building complete drops compared to the same period 12.5% , drop speed relatively before 9 months accelerate 1.1 percent. This means estate to develop plan putting delay ceaselessly, to rolled steel later period demand will form bigger negative impact.

In addition, investment of domestic capital construction is added fast appear pick up. Statistical bureau data shows, 1, October, domestic infrastructure construction invests accumulative total to grow 3.7% compared to the same period, add fast relatively before 9 months are 0.4 tall percent, to pick up first inside year. But, because capital construction is right,the demand of rolled steel is consumed in rolled steel occupy mediumly than be less than estate market apparently, the progressively be born because of project of this capital construction whether be opposite effectively to developing estate market of rolled steel demand glide to still be put in huge uncertainty.

E society inventory and steelworks inventory split up

The graph is inventory of steel of whorl of domestic main town

Enter four quarters, tired library of inventory of society of domestic steel products is slow, continue reductive trend still was not turned round. Mysteel statistic data shows, up to on November 30, domestic main town is main reserve of rolled steel breed is total eight million two hundred and twenty-eight thousand three hundred tons, a week before annulus is compared reduces one hundred and ninety-five thousand three hundred tons, for successive the 8th Zhou Cheng reduces a current now. Among them, up to on November 30, reserve of steel of main city whorl is total two million nine hundred and fifty thousand eight hundred tons, a week before annulus is compared reduces one hundred and seventeen thousand seven hundred tons, relatively the corresponding period reduced one hundred and fifty-nine thousand one hundred tons last year, inventory appears continuously fast reductive trend, and inventory of steel of whorl of current and main city is in historical lowest level around.

But, steelworks inventory increases somewhat. Mysteel statistic data shows, up to on November 30, reserve of steel of whorl of steelworks of countrywide building materials is total two million and eighty-three thousand nine hundred tons, relatively the corresponding period is much last year five hundred and fifteen thousand two hundred tons, a week before annulus is compared increases one hundred and forty-six thousand seven hundred tons, present the state that adds continuously. If inventory of steel of whorl of will main city and steelworks inventory are amalgamative,calculate, aggregate achieve five million and thirty-four thousand seven hundred tons, relatively the corresponding period is much last year three hundred and fifty-six thousand one hundred tons, it is namely below steelworks inventory and setting of social inventory become divided, integral inventory relatively the corresponding period increased somewhat last year. Later period should pay close attention to trafficker to whether fill mainly library and filling library strength.

Anyhow, in rolled steel market short-term inside maintain oscillation to slant weak probability is bigger, in drop for a long time the space is limited. On strategy, short-term Ke Fenggao buy is empty, after dropping considerably, can consider to be in 3000 yuan / ton around long term layout far month is much onlier.