Since November, shanghai copper whole is small shade drops, the main contradiction of current copper city still is consumption demand is exhausted be not worth with investor confidence infirmly. Macroscopical respect, beautiful couplet store increase breath dollar index innovation is tall, coloured whole bear press be issued to lower levels. Main area side, it is essence of life abandons price difference to expand, the economic benefits that abandon copper is shown, replace consumption of copper of essence of life; 2 it is window of 3 quarters entrance is opened ceaselessly, entrance copper arrived centrally in October, inventory of period place copper picks up on; 3 it is current higher treatment cost, will make smeltery keeps high start working rate, domestic output will continue to increase in November, four quarters are supplied will reach a peak, just meet again at the appointed time cupreous demand is off-season, benefit sky is long-dated cupreous price. Yuan Chao of domestic copper output anticipates
The near future, overseas market most those who get attention is the US stock drops the influence of pair of market confidence. The US stock drops greatly direct fuse is beautiful in between the trade situation that upgrades increasingly and risk of ground fringe politics, its core element is beautiful couplet store add continuously breath the US stock that cause counter-purchases strength abate, the US stock is additionally consecutive city of 10 years of oxen also accumulate contain tremendous adjustment pressure. The couplet that be like the United States store continue constrictive, so the US stock follows probably global stock market sees a fall after a rise. Through near future beautiful couplet store reach Telangpu to make known one's position, beautiful couplet store have put the pace with constrictive delay, telangpu makes known his position to reduce Sino-US antagonism, at present sex of level of global capital market alleviates.
Fine copper entrance increases, domestic output Yuan Chao anticipates. According to Wind data, 1, fine copper output was 6.607 million tons in September, accumulative total increases compared to the same period 11.2% , crop was 764 thousand tons in September, lunar annulus is compared increase 1.87% . Import side, as a result of August, entrance window was opened continuously in September, arrived continuously in October, so 1, only import of the copper that did not forging September and cupreous material is 3.381 million tons, increase compared to the same period 19.2% , imported 453 thousand tons in September, lunar annulus is closer than increasing considerably 100 thousand tons. According to statistic, the plan put in 2018 produce can 2.25 million tons, at present already put into production can 1.8 million tons, field of can far supermarket expects new increase production. From the point of the put into production of the enterprise and crop cycle, began domestic output to will appear to grow apparently in November. Copper of essence of life and difference of useless copper price expand
According to customs data, 1, volume of import of useless in September copper is 1.78 million tons, decrease considerably compared to the same period 36% , but useless copper contains cupreous volume to promote considerably, abandon copper actually to contain copper to measure decrement far be less than objective to reduce proportion. Suffer policy effect, useless copper is supplied decrease and difference of useless price of early days essence is too low, make copper of essence of life replaces the consumption that abandon copper. Begin from October, pattern of domestic supply and demand produces a change, homebred copper annulus is compared grow considerably, difference of price of useless copper of copper of essence of life expands to 1700 yuan / ton above, bring about the economic benefits that abandon copper to show, demand rises restrain consumption of copper of essence of life, merchandise on hand goes weak apparently, inventory is accumulated, the entrance is hanged tremendous. Predict domestic output increased ceaselessly in November, in demand insufficient setting falls, difference of price of useless copper of copper of essence of life will close narrow.
Investment of electrified wire netting is to consume exclusive window downstream. Since October, downstream consumption puts delay apparently, car, air conditioning shows two digit to enjoy growth. In addition, overseas order for goods decreases ceaselessly, to cupreous consumption character, investment of electrified wire netting is increased is current exclusive window. Industry of cable of copper cash of before this year 3 quarters behaves bright look, rate of company go into operation carries growth state all the time. According to statistic, rate of start working of whole of company of countrywide wire cable was as high as 88.85% in September, in addition investment of infrastructure of electrified wire netting finished the forehead in September 57 billion yuan, annulus comparing increases 25% , add fast rise apparently. At present project of each district capital construction contends for photograph mount a horse, capital construction holds base economy intent in the palm apparent, those who come from project of national electrified wire netting invest energetically, enlarge wire cable demand, the copper that prop up is consumed.
Estate investment is added high fast can not mirror the market to turn warm, policy level did not shake evidence. 1, area of sale of commodity house accumulative total grew 2.9% in September, and the estate development forehead that finish grows 9.9% compared to the same period. In industry investment of production, fixed assets is added fast all below the setting of be issued to lower levels, forehead of accumulative total of investment of our country estate is added fast still maintain perch however, data backside is worth to pay close attention to. At present data of estate investment statistic includes two, it is building installation investment, 2 it is land purchases cost. Land purchases cost to press pay actually the forehead in installment plan invest into estate, it is the index of an opposite lag. Land purchases cost to add this year fast going tall is to push litre of estate to invest whole to add fast brunt, can not mirror market investment to turn warm. At present policy level did not shake evidence, the four seasons spends steady growth to will descend on capital construction.
The place on put together is narrated, the author thinks, at present Shanghai copper still has drop space, four quarters will appear the low inside year.