On one hand, plumbic market is supplied successional the interference that in winter Yi Shouhuan protects; On the other hand, busy season feature is not apparent, demand end turns stage by stage weak. Accordingly, supply weak demand situation or make plumbic price continuance closely exalted oscillation.
Since second half of the year, macroscopical market focus upgrades around global trade friction spread out, expression of whole of this your metal market slants weak, but plumbic price performance is low existence is propped up. Current, plumbic price goes situation wander, we think, plumbic market is supplied successional the interference that in Qiu Dong Ji Yi gets environmental protection, but turn stage by stage as a result of demand end weak, supply weak demand situation or make plumbic price continuance closely exalted oscillation.
Environmental protection element is restricted
The market anticipates to increase production of the concentrate outside the condition this year taller, but cost of treatment of entrance lead concentrate is stabilized continuously in 20 dollars / ton around, cost of homebred mine treatment is maintained continuously be in 1800 yuan / ton, mirrorred mine Duan Kuansong to still need to come true more for long. Four quarters mine supplies integral hasten comfortable, supply add fast nearly 5% , the raw material that creates to plumbic concentrate considering useless lead stock replaces year after year to rise, concentrate supply and demand is fluctuant conduct to the price relatively finite, we think plumbic market is contradictory and not be in mine, pay close attention to what smelt carries morely to disturb however the relay with demand.
From the point of global limits, plumbic market supplies variable more to be in our country. Home supplies Duan Zaiqiu winter to suffer the interference of environmental protection easily, this is we think four quarters of plumbic city are supplied maintain slant close prime cause. Area of Henan aid source started early-warning of yellow of heavy pollution weather in November, requirement key lash-up decreases an enterprise to adopt " one factory one plan " executive stop production or reduction of output, decrease a 10% above. Henan area brings about individual business to be restricted to produce accentuation because of polluting weather to upgrade again last week, and Hunan area checks influence part because of environmental protection superintend and director small-sized smeltery production. Suffer supply slant to be restricted closely, difference of price of lead of second birth of former unripe lead maintains narrow cut wave motion, predicting later period supplies increment short-term more difficult implementation.
Level of gain of second birth lead is not high
Be opposite from national environmental protection of plumbic industry again and again after shuffling, at present market of second birth lead already was formed " 3 without " produce can atrophy of year after year, close compasses produce the pattern that can expand gradually. Domestic Anhui China is platinic in November 2 period put into production of 450 thousand tons of project, increase second birth lead to supply foreground, bring about extent of agio of second birth lead to expand. But second birth lead is supplied successional also suffer the interference such as environmental protection, profit, consumption likewise the element is more, level of gain of whole of second birth lead is not at present high, environmental protection superintend and director checks normalization, expect new increase production can increment is lesser to supply concussion.
Demand of plumbic acerbity accumulator is abate
Feature of weak busy season of plumbic city consumption is not apparent this year, busy season not flourishing is off-season not weak. The loss of company of plumbic acerbity battery since 2 quarters is brought about 7, busy season consumption sold at a discount greatly in September. 3 quarters fall as plumbic price centre of gravity move, cost of company of plumbic acerbity battery is reduced, anticipate profit of company of four quarters battery picks up conduce to consumption holding firm. Plumbic price is low in November an oscillation, profit margin of company of acerbity accumulator of current and downstream lead is maintained in 15% over, because half-baked order or continuance reach pay,expect go into operation of large battery company by November, performance of production of company of small-sized lead acerbity battery is relative poorer, or acid of lead of small be a burden on batteries whole is consumed.
Current, supplying the case that gets interference continuously to fall, level of gain of second birth lead is general not tall, accept environmental protection obligation, anticipate supply grow considerably hard. In the meantime, consumption anticipates turn stage by stage weak, in whole small stock level falls, anticipate plumbic price will continue exalted oscillation, fluctuant interval is in Shanghai lead 18000, 19000 yuan / ton.