"Position " again and again does fall black fasten bull "

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Whorl steel issues explore to come 3500 a little bit further

Since the last ten-day of a month in August, whorl steel rushs on 1901 agreement reach 4400 yuan / ton sex of the phase after upper part sees a top, subsequently progressively fall after a rise, but end of merchandise on hand is still good as a result of expression of demand of busy season terminal, spot price is behaved in perch strong, cause futures price considerably agio merchandise on hand. However good times don't last long, enter after November, macroscopical anticipate overlay north weather turns cold, make demand progressively enter off-season, and other places of concussion Hua Dong falls south northeast resource, spot price begins to drop considerably, hangzhou building materials is to be in more drop in the day go to 140 yuan / ton, how will be prices of steel of so follow-up whorl deduced?

Costly suppress demand

Turn gradually as northward weather cold, backwater of building site construction, whorl steel enters demand off-season. Additional, grind machine start rate to look from monitored countrywide cement, also had been in seasonal in gliding, this shows demand of whorl steel authenticity is going weak slowly. While northward demand goes weak, resource of northward whorl steel is progressively south market of next concussion Shandong, Hua Dong, Hua Na, before the whorl steel price of Shenyang, Hangzhou is poor also from 400 yuan / ton upper part closes narrow reach 40 yuan / or so tons.

Watch speculation demand instead, at present spot price still is in Shanghai whorl steel 4300 yuan / or so tons, the better filling library price in be apart from trafficker heart still has a space, so current speculation demand still is squelched by costly case. Dare not fill easily in trafficker below the circumstance of the library, inventory of whorl steel society also is in all the time low move, and did not accumulate apparently. In light of whole, follow-up authenticity demand goes weak to will continue to drive spot price to drop, when the price drops to cause the speculation demand of trafficker to logical place, ability drives look forward to of sex of level of whorl steel price firm.

Supply pressure is greater

Before September, before environmental protection is basically perforative 3 quarters, the market anticipation to environmental protection also all the time more sufficient. Nevertheless, as economy bear press be issued to lower levels, the sound of environmental protection correct an error rings gradually, right early before Beijing ferry look forward to and circumjacent area " 2018, air pollution administered Qiu Dong season integratedly 2019 program of action of assault fortified positions (ask for an opinion to stalk of grain) " revise, more anticipate consistently environmental protection hasten is severely before was being turned round. However, after heating season is restricted to produce formal open last week, our observation is produced to countrywide blast furnace can utilization rate does not fall to rise instead, this is carried out strictly with what heating season was restricted to produce last year form bright contrast, also confirmed the logic that environmental protection shakes. Because at present the manufacturing profit of whorl steel still has 800 yuan / or so tons, be in the corresponding period more exalted buy, also greatly the manufacturing profit that tower above heat coils.

Since this year, suffer as the production of blast furnace be restricted, electric stove is produced can put in increment to be able to achieve 20 million tons. Although have the effect of new GB, but the basis is calculated profit of steel of whorl of Hua Dong electric stove is at present passable, newest electric stove is produced can utilization rate is in 75.77% the left and right sides, tower above goes year of the corresponding period 15 percent. Produce in short circuit can put in overlay to produce can below the double action that utilization rate rises, short circuit supply rises. Steel couplet is newest weekly crop is in whorl steel of statistic 3.45 million tons / or so weeks, be in perch of the corresponding period. In light of whole, below the setting that shakes supply of overlay short circuit to increase in environmental protection, the supply pressure of whorl steel is greater also.

The technology is in drop situation

Hold a storehouse to look completely from before whorl steel 10, maintain a warehouse completely from October the first ten days of a month turns by how since sky, already successive a month is in headroom condition, before 1901 agreement are newest 10 hold a storehouse to be headroom completely 138 thousand more than hand. The near future, of whorl steel drop to keep consistent with the change that maintain a warehouse, of a few main chairs hold a storehouse to also be headroom. Additional, say from the technology, whorl steel 1901 agreement fall defeat 3800 yuan / ton hind, achieve ceaselessly piece new low, show the market still lies drop in the trend, sequel 1901 agreement or play detective further 3500 yuan / ton.

Integrated above is analysed, on one hand, because authenticity demand takes case of weak overlay high price, still control the speculation demand of whorl steel; On the other hand, environmental protection shakes supply of overlay short circuit to increase, cause supply pressure still bigger. In two end bear below the setting that press, although futures price agio is at present bigger, but the means rehabilitate that follow-up agio basically will drop through spot price. However, still have in spot price bigger below the background that takes weak space, whorl steel futures has the possibility that continues to drop, 1901 agreement or issue explore to reach 3500 yuan further / ton.