. Cupreous concentrate grew odd be born 2019, concentrate of next year copper is maintained slant close anticipate. But short-term in light of inventory of concentrate of refine factory copper is more abundant, TC perch can keep period of time.
. Useless 2018 copper is imported considerably cut it is inevitable trend, but specific gravity is compared because of abandoning 6 kinds to occupy in importing useless copper expand, useless copper grade rises somewhat, breach of domestic useless copper did not anticipate so big. And at present essence of life abandons valence difference is in opposite perch, useless copper replaces a gender to increase to copper of essence of life. Useless in October copper makes lever start working lead for 61.54% , annulus comparing increases 11.17 percent, to copper of essence of life consumption forms handicap.
. Terminal consumption is not quite hopeful, air conditioning and automobile data are more exhausted weak. Notable nevertheless is, wire cable investment begins to pick up, according to historical experience electrified wire netting investment can be finished basically or exceed its to plan the specified number, next cable of wire of a few months is worth to expect with cupreous volume.
. Inventory is in in last few years relatively low, total reserve of big exchange of consummate Zhou Wusan is cut 442 thousand tons, relatively had reduced 488 thousand tons of inventory bit 930 thousand tons higher March. Go up nevertheless period place has appeared tired library evidence, on period place inventory from October of the bottom low go to 135 thousand tons of present 111 thousand tons, had accumulated 24 thousand tons of stock, inventory of dominance of follow-up whole world stops likely decrease open add.
Pay close attention to a dot: Copper mine of circumstance of Sino-US commerce negotiation supplies dollar index useless copper policy.
Since be born of custom duty of Sino-US in September commerce, cupreous price almost open condition of narrow cut concussion, especially fluctuant interval maintained Shanghai copper basically October be in 49500 yuan / ton - 51000 yuan / ton, the near future as dollar index go strong and of downstream consumption turn weak, stability bandwidth just expands somewhat. Week of Asian copper industry is held smoothly last week, cupreous concentrate grows unit price eventually be born, have what effect to price of later period copper.
One. Concentrate of copper of be born of TC long sheet expected 2019 supply slant close
Jiangxi copper industry and Antofagasta reached the cupreous concentrate 2019 to grow odd negotiation, sign TC/RC to be 80.8 dollars / ton, 8.08 cent / pound, TC relatively 2018 82.25 drop 1.45 dollars / ton, this price accords with the market to anticipate. But there still is certain information to carry display vigour to use to the market after the message is announced, make cupreous price has go up certainly. Shanghai copper is highest ever broke through 50000 yuan / ton, human relations copper also is open 5 Lian Yang goes power is supreme reach 6296 dollars for a time / ton.
Hui Gu 2018, the situation of the raise after TC appears basically to or first. Long unit price of cupreous concentrate smelt was 2018 for 82.25 dollars / ton, in TC of the beginning of the year basic be around move this fiducial price moves, and CSPT2 quarter is decided TC floor price already reached 78 dollars / ton low. Indian Vedanta banner issues 400 thousand tons later / year thick refine is produced can close stop, make TC begins tall. Thick refine of more of follow-up whole world is produced can appear in succession problem, for instance Philippine PASAR makes acerbity equipment malfunction, Yu Guangjin lead make cave in of oxygen equipment conduit, this makes TC is climbed all the way litre, already reached 95 dollars recently / ton exalted. And the 3rd quarter was spent with the four seasons 2018 CSPT floor price not the government is announced, occupying us to figure should be smeltery is expended to seek equaler treatment intended and do it. Anyhow, the situation of the raise after annual TC appeared basically to or first 2018, but notable is TC/RC climb litre was not end of cupreous concentrate mine to appear problem, the thick temper with fire that says before main reason or us is produced can problem.
Look into 2019, before long 2019 odd TC gives heat, the market is right TC is general 2019 not quite hopeful, even somebody forecasts TC will with 7 words begin. The market predicts cupreous concentrate was supplied 2019 generally add fast will glide, and cupreous smeltery puts in produce can will increase. According to us union reachs about orgnaization statistic, copper mine was supplied 2018 add fast will relatively 2017 - 1% rise 3.5% , copper mine was supplied 2018 add fast because base is lesser last year,rising basically is. Strike of 44 days played by a definite date of Escondida copper mine considerably last year low the copper mine of annual furnished 2017, and strike interference element has gotten removing effectively this year, make copper mine supply gets picking up certainly this year. Predict copper mine was supplied 2019 add fast will glide once more to 2% the left and right sides, the reason is mine of new put into production less, among them increment is bigger is the Cobre Panama mine with subordinate First Quantum, predict to be controlled for 100 thousand tons.
Besides grade of cupreous concentrate itself reduce and the addition of exploitation difficulty brings about the supply of cupreous concentrate slanted 2019 close, domestic smelt is produced can fast dilate also is TC bear the one big reason that press. Before benefit from benefit from a few years cupreous concentrate TC/RC is in perch to drive reach home to promote cathode copper to carry self-sufficient ratio requirement, nearly two years Chinese smelt is produced can enter period of peak of put into production, and these projects are cast basically build in China. Thick refine is produced can enlarge produces line of business of bigger copper of southeast of the aluminium in Guangxi thes southern part of the country cupreous industry is mixed, in thick refine of industry of aluminous southeast copper is produced can increase 400 thousand tons.
2. Difference of useless price of essence of life pulls the big spending that abandon copper to turn strong
Customs data shows, the entrance abandoned copper in September 200 thousand objective ton, drop compared to the same period 37.81% . Entrance of 1-9 month accumulative total abandoned copper 2018 1.78 million objective ton, drop compared to the same period 35.9% . From this year data looks, importing the quantity that abandon copper to drop is inevitable trend, because enter,this is the country abandons copper to abolish 7 kinds of control especially to the entrance after 2018 more severe, make an entrance useless copper decreases considerably. Do not give an accident, this year is 7 kinds of useless copper last years of the entrance, new policy only the part of aptitude of treatment of production of be patient of is large area of the garden that tear open solution can take an entrance to approve civil, up to batch of article already extended before distributing news dispatches 23 batches. What announced 2018 restrict kind of entrance that abandon copper to approve language amount to be nine hundred and forty-seven thousand nine hundred tons, relatively 2017 three million and five thousand eight hundred tons of annual, decrease compared to the same period 68.46% . The business that at present countrywide place wins batch of article quota gross to exceed 10 thousand tons 20, among them 16 are located in Zhejiang area, guangxi area 2, guangdong and Jiangxi area each 1.
approve article quota to be in two hundred and seventeen thousand two hundred tons about first quarter, the 2nd quarter approves article quota gross to be two hundred and seventy thousand eight hundred tons about, place of the 3rd quarter obtains batch of article to be controlled in 390 thousand tons, the fourth quarter approves civil estimation to also be controlled in 200 thousand tons. Had neared end 2018, the entrance abandons copper considerably reductive trend is inevitable. Domestic useless copper reclaims to father and step forward because of environmental protection hasten dimension difficult, and domestic useless copper reclaims use still existing tax bill question, transition of useless copper company is so imperative.
On June 24, 2018, the State Council is released " the opinion that the State Council of Central Committee of Communist Party of China makes fight of assault fortified positions of good pollution prevention and cure stoutly about strengthening zoology environmental protection in the round " , will prohibit silvering coin in the round rubbish enters a country, severity hits smuggling, do one's best reduces solid trash to import sort and amount considerably, the target is solid trash came true before 2021 0 entrances. Do not go out inaccessibly from issuance article, sequel abandons 6 kinds of entrances to also will tend prohibit strictly importing even, there was concrete step to come on stage 2019 probably. Although abandon cupreous gross to drop range is bigger, but metallic volume drops range may be so big without what anticipate, the reason is useless between entrance useless copper 6 kinds are occupied than beginning to grow, 6 kinds are abandoned to occupy in importing useless copper at present according to estimation than be 63% the left and right sides.
Because abandon cupreous entrance to decrease considerably, and home abandons copper at present reclaim quantity as before less, before bringing about essence of life to abandon valence to differ, be in all the time low. What useless price of essence of life differs is low fan make useless copper right copper of essence of life replaces a gender lesser, be willing to make cupreous material with copper of essence of life more downstream, this makes consumption of copper of essence of life more considerable, inventory also is decreasing all the time. Do not cross the near future as cupreous price rebound and desire of shipment of useless copper trafficker is increasingly strong, essence of life abandons valence to need the power that already had dilate. End price of copper of Guangdong Fosan brightness was 44400 yuan on November 20 / ton, difference of useless price of essence of life is 5530 yuan / ton, valence is poor than before somewhat outspread. Insufficient follow-up as policy tighten up further, waste 6 kinds of confined also words for instance, useless copper supplies a problem to will be highlighted again come out.
3. Car air conditioning consumes cable of exhausted weak wire to be quickened with cupreous hopeful
2018 1-9 month, power source infrastructure invests accumulative total of the forehead that finish to be 130.2 billion yuan, drop compared to the same period 1.8% , relatively before the investment of wh what month had pick up certainly. 2018 1-9 month, infrastructure of electrified wire netting invests accumulative total of the forehead that finish to be 337.3 billion yuan, drop compared to the same period 9.6% , the value is before 13.7% , compared to the same period downtrend somewhat abate. In light of the situation that understands from national electrified wire netting according to us, national electrified wire netting planned investment of electrified wire netting to be 498.9 billion yuan 2018. Generally speaking, investment of electrified wire netting can be finished basically or exceed its to plan the specified number. And prep above of investment of second half of the year first half of the year is the job that produces constantly, from investment annulus comparing is added fast in light of, big probability of investment of second half of the year will pick up. From the point of the circumstance of survey, wire cable sale is at present more considerable, the price is higher also, we have reason to figure the consumption that gives follow-up wire cable will have window. Wire cable occupies downstream copper to consume ratio to be about 36% , pull to what copper of essence of life consumes move very considerable.
2018 1-10 month, value of accumulative total of area of building new go into operation is one billion six hundred and eighty-seven million five hundred and forty thousand five hundred square metre, accumulate grow 16.3% compared to the same period; Building complete area accumulates a value to be five hundred and seventy-three million nine hundred and eighteen thousand one hundred square metre, accumulative total decreases compared to the same period 12.5% . Can see, accumulative total of building complete area is added compared to the same period fast drop continuously, had arrived at present - of 12.5% low. Unlike whorl steel and cement, copper basically is used at building the later period of the project, so complete area can mirror cupreous consumption more, the depression with opposite 2018 estate has effect of certain be a burden on to consumption of copper of essence of life, this kind of trend leads sequel to still can continue probably.
Crop of air conditioning of 1-10 month home was 171 million 2018, grow 10.6% compared to the same period, crop was thirteen million five hundred and sixty-eight thousand in October, drop compared to the same period 0.4% . According to the industry online data, air conditioning is overall September sell 9.014 million, glide compared to the same period 8.2% . Do not go out inaccessibly, air conditioning is shown a bit with cupreous later period lack of power, below inventory of current tall air conditioning, amplitude can be greeted only close narrow, early days air conditioning pulls the consumption that move copper to may be in logically not quite applicable now.
Output of 1-10 month car was twenty-three million two hundred and twenty-two thousand 2018, grow compared to the same period - 0.4% ; Car output was 2.426 million in October, decrease considerably compared to the same period 9.2% . Car output was 2.426 million in September, decrease compared to the same period 10.6% . 9, car output reduced the fall after a rise that caused crop of car accumulative total directly considerably October, month output maintains all the time before in of 3% add fast, 9, the output level October is pulled directly low the increase rate of accumulative total crop arrives negative worth. Regard Jin Jiuyin as 10 busy season, the car shows busy season however not the feature of flourishing. Remained only 2018 finally two months, car of predicting later period is consumed also too won't hopeful, car spending is weak this year last year it is big probability incident. Car of new nevertheless energy resources behaved stronger growth momentum, output of car of 1-10 month new energy resources is 925 thousand, grow 54.4% considerably compared to the same period. Calculate according to us, volume of total copper of car bad news maintains about be in 810 thousand tons.
4. Inventory refresh inside year low sequel has tired library likelihood
Total reserve of big exchange of consummate Zhou Wusan is cut 442 thousand tons, odd week reduces 24 thousand tons of inventory. Among them LME inventory reductive is most, odd week reduced 10 thousand tons of inventory to reach 161 thousand tons. Period place and COMEX reduced 7490 tons of inventory and 6444 tons of inventory respectively on. Review before, dominance stock falls 930 thousand tons all the time from the perch by March, at present already accumulative total reduced 488 thousand tons of inventory, dominance library existence keeps refresh is worn in recent years inventory low. Nevertheless as consumption put delay, we think sequel should be met enter tired library process. This from on period place inventory sees one spot, on period place inventory from October of the bottom low go to 135 thousand tons of present 111 thousand tons, had accumulated 24 thousand tons of stock.
Cheating wave of macroscopical condition cloud weirs, g20 peak is met will hold in Argentina at the end of this month, from Department of Commerce of the closest United States make known his position to see trade friction have the power that looks up again. And American economy is ceaseless to good, initial value of Markit integrated PMI was the United States in October 54.8, considerably good at anticipating 53.9, chu Li of overlay beautiful couplet leads conference eagle to distribute speech, the United States is added breath anticipate increase, dollar index goes up ceaselessly, the near future is a breakthrough more 97. Below strong dollar and not affirmatory macroscopical condition, pressure of cupreous price upper part is greater.
Cupreous concentrate grew sheet 2019 eventually be born, concentrate of next year copper slants close anticipation got evidence, offer the market certain hope, but inventory of concentrate of smeltery copper of near future home is more abundant, TC will maintain the perch of period of time. At present essence of life abandons price difference to be in opposite perch, make useless copper right of copper of essence of life replace a gender to decrease, to copper of essence of life consumption has certain handicap, although import useless copper to be less than considerably last year, but useless copper is savoured rise somewhat, this makes in abandon cupreous breach and imagining so big. Global dominance inventory decreases continuously, but consumption of air conditioning car is shown a bit exhausted weak, the consumptive hopeful of follow-up wire cable makes window. Be aimed at above analysis, we predict price of later period copper slants to move infirmly, the key pays close attention to 47500 yuan / ton prop up.