What the everybody on black industry catenary pays close attention to quite now is steely production profit. Review a year to see with whorl steel the price is exemple, the price did not appear too decent fall after a rise, besides the beginning of the year. Period of time just gives now to drop recently. The price that heat coils is even poorer than whorl steel, why? Because there is a few now,course of study of new increase production is being put, prospective heat coils produce can exceed 330 million tons. The price of raw material falls in circumstance of profit tall look forward to, steely industry is willing to produce, be willing to give more concession for raw material price. Coke price rises steadily, cooking coal price rises steadily, price of useless recently steel just appears fall after a rise, this is very important phenomenon, what to show? The gain that shows upriver short circuit appears compress, short circuit steelworks begins medicine of Xiang Yuan makings. This logic applies to the coke that did not come for some time and iron ore likewise.
Terminal demand, investment is added fast 5.7% , estate is added fast appear continue to glide, 9.7% , there is one to the part is built and install investment in estate investment, construction project invested September is - 3.45% , former - 3.24% , install a project - 7.97% , it is before - 7.28% . Estate investment is pulled to rolled steel demand move a likelihood to enter phase of be a burden on. From the point of now, demand of short-term rolled steel is about to enter off-season, at present the demand among slants a little weak, steel trade business dare not take money, take money do next ten days sell how to go out to do? From long-dated look, investment of long-dated fixed assets is added fast drop.
Investment cent is 3, estate, manufacturing industry, capital construction. Real-estate industry appears this year more significant change, of area of estate new go into operation and construction area add fast pretty good, build how to give now to fall. After everybody takes land, hope as soon as possible enter sale segment, because this appears necessarily,work, enter sale segment to control cost, undertake controlling again in construction schedule respect. Real-estate industry appears after 67 month this year more apparent manner change, before May not start working, but to July a few building site at the same time start working. What reason? The market may change, take land to must change now, will come otherwise of deficit is estate company. The area that buy the land adds estate fast occurrence change, growth was lost October 10% . With respect to eye antecedent condition looks, it is normal that at present construction compares real-estate industry building site, be in partly among them work. A moment ago demand is like pretty good, until go up a week, demand just appears a few glide.
Environmental protection had restriction to construction last year, but restrict this year, negate needs in 567 tigidity this year and very good, but anticipate winter is environmental protection shutdown this year, to this year winter does not have environmental protection shutdown, before paragraph time is in construction busy season, from north Xiang Na is. Real-estate industry appears anticipate inflection point, although financing source accumulative total is added at what stabilize quite compared to the same period now fast, but discover through the communication with estate company, the anticipation of the situation after they are right produces a change. Such anticipation that meeting change takes ground speed to also can change investment rate, be opposite thereby rolled steel, especially the demand influence of whorl steel produces be a burden on.
Manufacturing industry investment picks up quickly, the nature after certain profit can invest industry gain, because hope to expand,produce can, perhaps hope to undertake ability changes, perhaps ask to need to have investment according to environmental protection. How should after profit exceeds now to fall, do? Investment is added fast it is stable, very possible flabby, industrial company profit is added fast had begun to glide.
Capital construction investment is added fast live firmly, investment is added fast very low. In huge amount local debt setting falls, does the enthusiasm of capital construction of local government investment have many tall? Now is interrogation. Because local government is right,chase after duty care about quite, if generate new debt, responsibility pays do not rise. From long-dated in light of, capital construction investment is added fast won't appear pull litre. China is changed at pattern of new old growth period, changeover period just is new growth pattern did not shape, old growth pattern is ebbing. Although such is opposite,the economy of Chinese future also should have hope.
Rolled steel consumes busy season to had neared end, end should from may begin last weekend. From the situation that trafficker understands from building site steelworks, have a sign, for instance before trafficker wants money to steelworks, steelworks has two norms to perhaps have a norms only only commonly, pull. A week appears on, what to want to have, although go up from the price and quantity, did not appear to be changed apparently at that time, but figure from the phenomenon, steelworks swings inventory to be about to happen.
Apparent consumption, go tall all the way this year, apparent consumption was September 91.55 million, september is 92 million. Look from high frequency data, begin countrywide building materials to clinch a deal last week appear to glide apparently.
Trafficker is more careful, because be about to enter off-season December. Stock of rolled steel society goes now to slip, middleman does not take money, stock of company of key rolled steel appears rise. Steelworks inventory has to drop, does the fall that dropping is passivity drop actively still? If be to drop actively to begin usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price on behalf of steelworks, such undersell is told to the price won't resembling again is to prop up like before, become pressure instead. From Lan Gegang trade purchases handler index to treat everybody interest appears abate.
Enter immediately December, this year winter store when to spread out, steel trade business and steelworks manner polarity. Goods of hoard of steel trade business seldom has spring this year those who make money, before paragraph time communicates everybody to get hurt with steel trade business again very serious, if steelworks does not give more appropriate value,compensate in the winter this year, winter of steel trade business store interest is real not tall. Combine next year issue, take sale of the next year after rolled steel, next year is downstream demand how, everybody dare be told now. Macroscopical now look empty, below so difficult situation, new the Political Bureau did not say to start estate market as before in the conference. Prospective rolled steel, there may be one part suppress on building materials demand especially, next year rolled steel total demand may be smooth slightly abate circumstance.
Data of share of October of grab produce and sale is better, have descendent sign, the car is added compared to the same period fast - 10% , decreased 10% . This explains downstream consumption appears really a few problems, include other evidence.
Rolled steel of rolled steel crop is supplied, crop of October portion cast iron 67.74 million tons, and calculated growth compared to the same period last year 12.87% , crude steel grows 9% , whorl steel grows 0.08% only, whorl crop has a few to be restricted. Of rolled steel and cast iron crop than, crop of short circuit steelworks is being released stage by stage. Crop of short circuit steel products is made an appointment with by profit system, if destroy this part, the market can appear reduce an amount, this need continues to dog.
Be restricted to produce this year, from this year spring arrives a few days ago all the time crying be restricted to produce, but after be restricted to produce, yield did not appear too big fall, our crop is restricted sensory passivation by environmental protection. Recently it may not be a bad idea of two years of steely businesses, cooking business it may not be a bad idea, the investment in environmental protection respect is bigger, a steelworks is affected cost by environmental protection every tons of steel raises the possibility 200-300 yuan. It had had a few equipment to come up, can achieve a requirement. The 2nd respect, the profit of steely industry is maintained all the time in condition of on the high side, below the condition that carries an environment, can take other technical step, let crop undertake rising, this sees short circuit abandons steel to add a phenomenon namely, final result is rolled steel output did not fall, appear rise.
Steely industry purchases handler index to look, everybody interest pretty is tall, the reason is profit tall. When reduction of output? Be compressed when steely company profit only certain level when just can appear reduction of output. The closest period of time, because profit appears,dismantle slippery, environmental protection, rate of blast furnace start working, day all crude steel crop is affected, such influence is unalterable the market anticipates, be in especially at present, intermediate demand becomes very small. Arrived year end, the demand among transforms even the supply among, such circumstances are not quite advantageous to supply demand relations.
This is output of steel of main business whorl and wire crop, the reason is profit margin taller. Amount of rolled steel exit is smaller, the reason is domestic steel price very good. Look from stock of rolled steel company, in steel assist the data that publish sees show tired library. Next the problem depends on, be the measure that take support value of reduction of output or adopts undersell? Come round to look from eye, crop does not have too apparent fall it seems that, process of so tired library still can last, if stock is expensive it is certain to arrive degree, likelihood the price can appear to fluctuate downward, the reason is rolled steel begins usu. in anticipation of or in order to bring about a fall in price.
The entrance of iron ore maintains position of on the high side, but October portion entrance decreases somewhat. Deliver goods the quantity may be restricted by trade margin, mine price comes up, price difference is pulled, can see a lot of people are willing to import. The market reflects trade margin, from the entrance quantity and crop look, the individual thinks at present the circumstance of nonexistent in short supply. Where is whole central point? It is mine and steelworks rich play chess. Appear in price of 90 month mine rise, at that time industry of corresponding steelworks iron and steel supplies library behavior, to usable on November 9 day number rises, lie to compare high level in recent years. Next need paid close attention to rhythm of steelworks filling library to stop. If stopped, deliver goods very quickly now with respect to conference put oneself in another's position quantity reductive circumstance. From eye antecedent condition looks, steelworks ore reserve came up. Below normal circumstance, filling library motivation may give now to fall. Come round to look from eye, lie as before the position of opposite on the high side.
Homebred mine output slants relatively weak, not big to mine price impact. Basically be entrance mine, look to had begun from useless steel, when short circuit crop reduces fixed rate, also began to growing flow to compress, that moment brings about iron ore price to be compressed.
Coke supply wave motion is not big, 10 crop are in position of opposite on the high side. Have attention of a need, cooking factory is carried produce ascendant space to may be restricted, produce can utilization rate year after year drops. If did not come for some time, for instance next year spring, when steely enterprise produces interest to begin to rise, may discover coke supply got affect. Steelworks is filling recently coke inventory, one part enterprise fills rise, one part enterprise did not fill completely rise. Price negotiation lies now in very delicate process, some cooking workses fall 100, some steelworks coke fall 50, enter relative balance state now. As coke filling library is finished stage by stage, as rolled steel manufacturing profit is compressed, the likelihood is nodded when prospective certain, perhaps issueing spot price of coke of a period of ten days of the middle of a month to may appear drop. Where is core? Steely production profit is core.
When steely production profit just began to drop, the movement of steelworks raises yield, reduce cost, such profit can have some of safeguard, but when steely price falls continuously, we can see pressure of meeting upstream marry again. Continue to fall downward when steely profit, drop to certain level, steely industry just can appear reduction of output. The core central issue that prospective market core pays close attention to is steely production profit.
Come round to look from eye, rolled steel demand is about to enter off-season, what intermediate demand reflects is intermediate supply, what trafficker reflects is intermediate supply, when can trafficker just go this year winter store, it is only when the price is likely. Say year after year not winter store, have a winter year after year store, the key is the price when appropriate. When we and northward trafficker chat, some moment 3500, he is appropriate, steelworks is appropriate do not know, future may undertake rich weichis here.
Rolled steel is restricted to produce anticipate not as good as, although in steel assist announce data to a few drop, but descendent range is very narrow. Rhythm of steelworks filling library, when just beginning profit to drop, steelworks is willing to raise yield more, he is good to the demand pretty of raw material, but it is certain to continue to drop when profit degree when, we can see meeting upstream want profit.
Coke, short-term supply comes round to see cooking enterprise have stock rarely from eye, the reason is steelworks wants money more exuberant. All along of enterprise of the 2nd cooking does not have how many inventory, this is to fight risk ability decision, most cooking enterprise does not have the ability of so big stock. Receive an inflection point now, this inflection point is steelworks filling library may enter end.
We should pay close attention to rolled steel to produce profit, at present steely production profit is dropping, we see short circuit steelworks begins upstream to abandon steel to want profit, look next when steel price appears to drop quickly. From eye antecedent condition looks, whorl steel grows flow to produce an enterprise to look, inventory pressure is more apparent, achieve through depreciating fall library effect when the fall that be being brought necessarily is manufacturing profit, the fall that produces profit can appear up conduct, this time is nodded, opinions vary, the likelihood is in recently, because off-season came, the profit on industrial catenary is in compress. When undertaking communicating with steely enterprise recently, everybody is pessimistic unlike last year in that way, right this year next year, right what did not come one year is macroscopical the pessimism that go up has undertaken conductive to the industry. The extent that steel price drops this year should be compared possibly big last year. Trafficker winter store opportunity choice appears in spot price more substantially drop to just can appear.