Supply gap is difficult to make up

  • Jan, 11th 2019

The domestic soybean oil main contract 1905 once approached 5300 yuan / ton and then stopped falling and rebounded, and now returns to 5400 yuan / ton above. The author believes that short-term soybean oil has a need to continue to rebound.

The two benchmarks were weak

After China-US trade negotiations made positive progress, China returned to the US soybean market for procurement. Up to now, China has purchased about 2.75 million tons of US soybeans twice. It is rumored that the third purchase of about 2 million tons before the end of December 2018 has been determined to be lost. The actual purchase volume in China failed to complete 5 million before the end of 2018. The procurement plan of tons is even less than the expected purchase level of more than 10 million tons in the CBOT market.

In addition, South American soybean production prospects continue to improve, Brazil's high-yield pattern is basically clear, Argentina's core planting area is full of rain, and it is expected that the new season soybean production will recover sharply, while Brazilian early-maturing soybeans will begin to harvest, leaving US soybeans to concentrate on exports. There are not many window periods. It is expected that US soybeans will fall back below 900 cents/lb under the pressure of less-than-expected purchases in China and the near-being of South American soybean competition.

At the same time, the Fed raised interest rates again. The latest EIA data also showed that there was no sign of “OPEC+” crude oil production cut. The previous agreement on the reduction of production could be effectively fulfilled, which caused the crude oil price to continue to fall. From this point of view, the weak pattern of US beans and crude oil determines the weak tone of the oil, thus limiting the rebound.

The supply gap is difficult to make up

On the one hand, the number of US soybeans purchased in China is far less than market expectations; on the other hand, most of the purchased US beans are shipped in January-March 2019, from USDA. The weekly soybean export inspection report has not seen export data to China for the time being. The world granary maintains the estimated import data of 5.5 million tons of imported soybeans in January and 3.2 million tons of Hong Kong in February. Still staying at 5.5 million tons, which means that the current wireless cable proves that the purchase of US beans can make up for the possible domestic soybean supply gap in February-March.

In addition, the use of the purchase of US beans is actually not clear. The market generally believes that the current purchase volume is mainly transferred to the reserve. The oil mill has no procurement behavior due to the fact that the tariff has not been lowered temporarily, so the current import changes Can't help make up for the domestic supply gap.

From the price structure, support

, whether it is soybean oil import profits, or futures disk profit, can provide support for soybean oil prices. At present, the cost of landed soybean oil in South America is 5,500-5,600 yuan/ton, the import profit of January contract is -500 yuan/ton, and the import profit of May contract is about -150 yuan/ton, which basically eliminates the extra import demand. Incremental.

In terms of profit on the face of the disk, according to the cost of Brazilian beans, the processing profit in May was less than 20 yuan/ton, and the profit in September was a loss of 70 yuan/ton. From the point of view of the profit, the oil plant also has no additional willingness to hedge. At the same time, on the basis of the overall support of oil and sputum on the basis of the loss of oil on the plate, if the soybean meal performance is weaker, it will change the oil plant into a slick strategy, which will help the soybean oil rebound.

The increase in downstream delivery

Since the third week of December 2018, the operating rate of the oil plant has rebounded and it is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise in the later period. However, with the gradual start-up of the stocking before the Spring Festival, the amount of goods collected downstream of the oil plant has increased significantly, making the stock of soybean oil continue to decline, and has now dropped to the same level in 2017. The downstream stocking is expected to last until the middle and late January of 2019. Although the shipments will be affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the oil plant shutdown will make the supply less, and after the Spring Festival, due to the stocking consumption, the downstream often has seasonal replenishment. demand. Therefore, from the monthly balance table, the decline in soybean oil stocks is expected to continue until April.

Based on the above analysis, although the two major benchmarks of US soybean and crude oil are still weak, the current procurement behavior of US soybeans cannot guarantee that the domestic supply gap in February-March can be compensated, and the domestic soybean oil phase is In terms of supply and demand situation, with the Spring Festival approaching, soyoil stocks are expected to continue to fall, and prices may rebound. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the soybean meal can continue the weakness, and under the suppression of factors such as the US soybean, crude oil and macro, how much the soybean oil rebounds. In operation, you can pay attention to the opportunity to try more dips, but you must strictly set the stop loss.

(Author: Guohai Liangshi Futures)