Since the intraday low of 10,910 yuan/ton on December 25, 2018, the main contract of Hujiao Futures 1905 has started to fluctuate and rises. It once showed the daily “five consecutive years” and closed on January 4, 2019. The contract closed at 11,845 yuan / ton. Analysts said that the central bank's loosening of monetary policy, the NDRC's approval of infrastructure investment projects and the typhoon in Thailand to invade Thailand's events have all contributed to the Shanghai rubber futures price. However, from a technical point of view, there is still some pressure on the top. Break through the situation.
The volume of the price increased greatly
On January 4, the price of the Shanghai rubber futures increased significantly, the main contract 1905 rose 3.54% to 11,845 yuan / ton, the volume increased by 235,000 hands to 54.6 With 10,000 hands, the number of positions increased by 14,102 hands to 350,000 hands.
"The central bank relaxed monetary policy, the National Development and Reform Commission increased the approval of infrastructure investment projects and the typhoon in Thailand to invade Thailand, making the natural rubber market extremely pessimistically improved." Hu Huahan, senior analyst of SDIC Anxin Futures, said.
Specifically, one of them, the typhoon hit Thailand, the market speculation is strong. On January 3, CNN reported that the typhoon "Pabu" is expected to land on the afternoon of the 4th local time in Thailand. Surat Thani and Nakhon are the Chumphon on the eastern border of the village. ) Near the archipelago. Experts predict that the typhoon will become the devastating typhoon after the tropical storm "Harriet" in 1989.
Second, loose signal reproduction. The central bank website on January 4th news, in order to further support the development of the real economy, optimize the liquidity structure, reduce financing costs, the People's Bank of China decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point, of which January 15, January and January 2019 On the 25th, the percentage was lowered by 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, the Medium Term Lending Facility (MLF), which expires in the first quarter of 2019, is not renewed.
Third, infrastructure investment accelerated. According to media reports, in the past month, the National Development and Reform Commission has approved urban rail and railway construction plans (including new) in eight cities and regions, including five urban rail transits in Chongqing, Jinan, Hangzhou, Shanghai and Changchun, and Guangxi Beibu Gulf. Economic zone, newly built Xi'an to Yan'an, Jiangsu Province, along the Yangtze River urban agglomerationThe construction of three regional railways has a total investment of about 860 billion yuan. Among them, the relevant planning investments in Shanghai and Jiangsu were approximately 298.348 billion yuan and 218 billion yuan respectively.
Concerned about the upward breakthrough in the market outlook
"Even without considering the typhoon disaster in Thailand and the introduction of China's stimulus policy, the current natural rubber market fundamentals are not conducive to short positions." Hu Huahan said, well known, natural rubber As an agricultural product, it has obvious seasonal characteristics. From December to March of the following year, China is in a period of suspension, while the main producing areas in Southeast Asia have entered a period of reduced production, and the global supply of natural rubber is in the off-season. Thus, changes in the supply end during this period are clearly favorable for speculative bulls of natural rubber, while shorts are very passive.
However, it is worth mentioning that investors are still worried about China's economic downturn and the global economic slowdown. The European and American stock markets have fallen at historically high levels, and there is no sign of a steady decline. It is still not to be ignored. Risk factors.
Hongye Futures (Hong Kong stocks 03678) analyst Wang Laifu said that although the recent price of Hujiao has fluctuated, but technically, it is still in the low range of bear market, still in the bottom of the bottom period, and later Whether to continue the upswing depends on the degree of attack on the pressure along the interval of 12,850 yuan / ton. In addition, from a policy perspective, it is still necessary to pay attention to the evolution of the international trade situation and the policy changes in the Southeast Asian producing areas. However, with the current subsidies from Thailand and Malaysia to boost the confidence of planters and rubber farmers, the upward breakthrough There is still a lot of pressure along the short term.
In terms of operation, Hu Huahan suggested that long-term Hujiao futures investors should reduce their holdings in a moderate amount, wait patiently for the end of Thailand's typhoon speculation and the external financial environment to improve and then re-receive multiple orders.