Near future prices is summarized
Period nickel since in July 120 thousand progressively callback is begun after seeing a top by many sided influence, appear the weak force that cuts a be issued to lower levels goes situation. Come to those who see nickel to go at present force is main be supplied end to anticipate pressure increases an influence, and the case of crop of opposite stainless steel with demand real end is better do not have enough to nickel price generation support in the near future actually, the stainless steel price that goes weak however instead squelched the person is opposite of nickel price anticipate.
Domestic and international ferronickel supplies step up, entrance gain intermittence is opened cause electroanalysis nickel merchandise on hand is bounteous
The new increase production of science and technology of sea of domestic Shandong Xin can have begun taphole, but increase production speed anticipates not as good as. And at the same time this year the rest of time is Indonesian still will have produce newly can put into production, the ferronickel that imports home will be increased significantly, farther extruding electroanalysises the demand end of nickel. Electroanalysis nickel consumption drops substantially the situation that will create the breach of supply and demand inside global limits to will decrease to achieve supply and demand to balance even substantially. At the same time early days is opened for many times as a result of entrance gain space, it is beyond the mark that inventory of free tax zone flows into home to cause Russian nickel in great quantities bounteous, domestic stock also increases somewhat, still need time to digest.
Stainless steel inventory is maintained smooth, do not have close care and have long view
At present inventory of market stainless steel increases somewhat, but steelworks is current crop keeps on the high side. As demand of overlay of fall after a rise of price of later period stainless steel upright expression slants weak, the steelworks crop of next year or meeting are affected.
Supply increase to be fulfilled stage by stage, next year demand carries pressure will bigger
From future the 3 processes to 6 months look, supplying end can be one fulfils new increase production stage by stage can circumstance. In light of rhythm, demand carries increment speed to carry rate quickly at supplying, month of place up to will be strong Yu Yuanyue. But the demand using nickel of direction of later period stainless steel will be squashed inevitably.
Demand end has possibly still to slant next year weak condition, dependency of area of new go into operation of the demand expression of stainless steel and building is taller. Strong position slants before at present landed start working will still maintain this, start working still can preserve the possibility a few months. But land sell one's own things has from the point of area and amount turn weak, follow-up and landed start working carries existence pressure.
One, domestic ferronickel follow-up is produced can increase apparent, extruding is right electroanalysis nickel demand
Got first half of the year last year inside environmental protection of unconscious Jiangsu and other places " look round " influence, domestic ferronickel output falls substantially, stainless steel regards nickel as occurrence breach of end of the biggest demand, be electroanalysised at the same time by home nickel import tariff adjusts an influence, those who import home electroanalysis nickel amount reduces drive up substantially nickel price. This ability is the crucial factor with nickel strong first half of the year this year price. And the to nickel beans reserve that the tall excessive price of vitriolic nickel brings side of new energy resources is used up more be on this foundation perfect.
And because the electrify of market of strong together with of nickel price solves nickel resource first half of the year slant relatively little, ferronickel becomes stainless steel to be opposite the main source of nickel demand. Ferronickel price of whole is climbed apparently this year, at the same time profit rate also brought usury to produce can of crop pick up. According to SMM data, crop of cast iron of nickel of 1-10 month whole nation three hundred and seventy-three thousand eight hundred nickel ton, accumulative total value is added compared to the same period 9.32% .
And at present market logic is to stem from the ferronickel of instantly to produce not just can pick up on, more new increase production that are prospective ferronickel can go up, domestic and international metropolis has new increase production can put into production increases ferronickel supply.
The place that domestic place has those who get attention is science and technology of Shandong Xin sea plans the furnace of 8 48000KVA that enlarge produces, produce can 60 thousand metal ton, overlay is original produce can crop will achieve year of ferronickel of Xin sea science and technology 180 thousand metal ton. And as we have learned, at present Xin sea science and technology already put into production begins taphole, and time of the 2nd put into production somewhat postpone, be not what predict formerly inside year with respect to put into production 6 plan. Will see whole at present 6 complete put into production need when next year 1 quarter ability is finished entirely. Produce at the appointed time can every month increases be close to 5000 tons will great alleviate the circumstance that is short of nickel. Every months of domestic steelworks is at present right electroanalysis nickel demand is controlled for 15000 tons) .
2, Indonesian nickel industry sends force continuously, ferronickel imports hopeful to soar
Early days comes out news, domestic steelworks spread out stainless steel to turn over dumping investigation to stainless steel industry. Although practical effect comes,look and too won't big. But be hit by the combination of domestic industry pressure can affect green hill to be in more or less Indonesian project is politic, it will increase future the crop of the ferronickel of usury embellish, at present Indonesian green hill has the RKEF stove of 20 33000KVA, it will be in 2019 again put into production 6 new 33000KVA stove, long-dated and Indonesian green hill produces per year a quantity to will obtain metal of 160 thousand nickel ton. And actually enough green hill is in 20 current Indonesian stainless steel project is used, 6 when add newly are produced can predict to go to more carry home, every month 3000 tons of metals ton volume level. And De Long is to continue the plan that increases to 12 inside year. Predicting next year will continue inside 6 months put into production goes to 15. Photograph comparing increases 5 at present a month is controlled 3000 tons.
And according to statistic, at present Indonesian ferronickel is in produce produce can be metal of 30 thousand nickel ton every months, and predict to next year end still has 10 thousand metals first quarter ton produce can put into production, because ferronickel does not have import tariff. Be hit in current and Indonesian stainless steel by the part press and below the circumstance with slower progress of stainless steel project, the ferronickel that imports home will be increased significantly, farther extruding electroanalysises the demand end of nickel.
3, electroanalysis nickel storehouse sheet is maintained slant little, but domestic stock increases apparent
The beginning of the year electroanalysises after nickel imports custom duty to decrease, longer divide inside time long assist electroanalysis nickel of solution of dispatches from foreign news agency of nickel open waters flows into home hard, cause the market to go up nickel board resource is in short supply, cooperate taller vitriolic nickel to be opposite at the same time nickel excessive price, domestic smelt enterprise purchases nickel beans to be used at machining vitriolic nickel in great quantities. As a result of the existence of breach of supply and demand, domestic and international stock falls speed carries significantly litre formed nickel price carries considerably first half of the year this year rise a cornerstone.
But because the near future imports gain space to open, it is beyond the mark that inventory of free tax zone flows into home to cause Russian nickel in great quantities bounteous, domestic stock also increases somewhat, still need time to digest. Predict next year after first quarter, electroanalysis the breach that nickel carries in stainless steel will be squashed substantially.
4, stainless steel inventory is maintained smooth, do not have close care and have long view
According to " I want stainless steel " statistic, the first ten days of a month was 239164 tons without stocks of example of tinnily area stainless steel in November 2018, annulus is compared the last ten-day of a month increased 9448 tons in October, amplitude 4.11% . . Data shows increase and not quite, but if classification does not look of 300 departments inventory raise rate apparent faster, and other produce a line to raise rate and be unhappy. Long-dated meeting 300 departments inventory has greater pressure to appear.
Wide blueness of black mountain system began increase production in October 300 departments steel-making is produced can, at present increment is in every months 30 thousand tons, every months of 6~8 can be amounted to later 10 thousand tons, corresponding nickel demand increases 5000 tons. Still climbing slope to did not achieve the situation that produces completely to be able to have the bigger effect that prop up to increment is being supplied at the beginning of 4 quarters. Predict 27 steelworks crop will increase to 2.3 million tons to fluctuate, compared to the same period amplitude 2.2% , annulus is in than amplitude 6%
At present profit of stainless steel steelworks is located in near balance of profit and loss, not big to crop influence. And inventory pressure is not at present great the rhythm of the production inside year of the steelworks below the circumstance will continue maintain. But clinch a deal as the fall after a rise of later period of stainless steel price and market not free, the yield of steelworks next year can may restrict somewhat.
5, supply increase to be fulfilled stage by stage, next year demand carries pressure will bigger
From future the 3 processes to 6 months look, supplying end can be one fulfils new increase production stage by stage can circumstance, the yield of predicting home abroad can increase will exceed 14 thousand metal ton, will see increase production rate at present slow at anticipating; And demand end is produced can crawl slope condition actual faster, hopeful demand end uses up 5000 tons, but later period can plan without new increase production. In light of rhythm, demand carries increment speed to carry rate quickly at supplying, month of place up to will be strong Yu Yuanyue. The demand using nickel of direction of later period stainless steel will be squashed inevitably.
But demand end has possibly still to slant next year weak condition, dependency of area of new go into operation of the demand expression of stainless steel and building is taller, reason gives birth to area of new go into operation of the demand of nickel and building to have higher associated rate formerly. From the point of inventory pressure, strong position slants before landed start working will still maintain this inside year. And from 70 big in in light of urban house price, house price annulus returns not complete subsidise than the heat that rise. Look on the history, landed start working glides to turn possibly to lose or develop business capital by house price extreme nervousness can conclude come out. Current and both not apparent still, so start working still can last a few months. But land sell one's own things has from the point of area and amount turn weak, follow-up and landed start working carries existence pressure.