The 3rd week of data looks October city
Introduction: Pursue the point of view of supply and demand, seek the essence of the market, the law that data supports lasts long, data of orchid case plank looks city to will take you to review October hot-rolling of the 2nd week of home coils board main data behaves the market.
Last week, sky of good profit of message side profit is pestered, always steel is restricted to produce 50% , the stock market drops greatly affect black fastens all fronts to go drop, heat up a spot price, narrow cut concussion; On the weekend, downstream the part purchases low to enter the arena, make market level improves somewhat. The open quotation at the beginning of week, market level alleviates somewhat. According to Lan Gegang platform of iron cloud business monitors: Up to on October 23, domestic hot-rolling coils board all valence 4204 yuan, relatively the corresponding period drops last week 10 yuan, relatively go up fall after a rise of lunar the corresponding period 29 yuan.
This piece first weeks of heat after analysing a section from the respect such as crop, overhaul, inventory, futures coils the market is relevant data circumstance, with period the city after be being discussed jointly, home heats up a price how to can walk out of predicament.
One, steelworks of this the mainstream inside Zhou Guo heats up a new first phase dish price is certain in hasten is weak
This Zhou Bengang, head 3 steelworks published steel, Ning Gang new first phase heats up a value policy, price of this 3 steelworks peaceful steel reduces 80 yuan greatly, this steel, head steel price dimension is certain, to hind market price case, steelworks attitude is relatively cautious. Enter October share especially, after downstream demand division although somewhat to the limit of one's capacity, but nearly two weeks of demand are released anticipate not as good as, trafficker operation is followed into follow, dare not become too much stock. Experienced September drop greatly, october portion already passed most, the market is spent basically in narrow cut concussion, to this kind of form, manner of partial steelworks respect still slants Yu Jinshen. The near future, because heating season draws near, each areas publish difference of Qiu Dong season to change wrong peak to produce policy in succession. To market price case rise rise to promote action. The author thinks, this year Qiu Dong season, environmental protection is restricted to produce execute poor dissimilation, prohibit " one knife is cut " flexible policy, make environmental protection is restricted postpartum city anticipates unidentified, the market can acclaim an element less, steelworks carries a manner opposite early days is gentle, dish valence also becomes loose somewhat in nearly two months.
Express 1 October portion policy of value of attune of steelworks of dominant of the 3rd week of home
From the market performance looks, at present the market interweaves for nothing more, home heats up a predicament that entered narrow cut shake it seems that, all valence relapses around 4200 yuan or so concussion; Environmental protection is restricted to produce a field, last week, jiangsu, Shaanxi publishs blue sky to defend battle plan, tang Shan announced wrong peak to produce directory, but pull to spot market price go up degree is finite. Investigate its reason, the author thinks, starting at demand side slow, autumn winter season differs dissimilation to be restricted to produce expect strength not as good as last year, market sentiment is relatively pessimistic. Together with was passed September drop greatly, the market is compared at present at early days market much a reason, operation of trafficker of merchandise on hand shows to decrease a storehouse to cover more, although near future price improves somewhat, but from mentally, trafficker follows go up apiration is poorer. According to Lan Gegang platform of iron cloud business monitors: Up to on October 23, domestic hot-rolling coils board all valence 4204 yuan, relatively the corresponding period drops last week 10 yuan, relatively go up fall after a rise of lunar the corresponding period 29 yuan.
Graph 1 2018 year in April, in October 2018
Home heats up a price to take situation picture
2, share 3 steelworks to publish hot-rolling to overhaul a plan up to this week
This week releases hot-rolling to produce a line to overhaul a plan without steelworks, in October up to 23 days, 3 steelworks released steel of domestic mutual bag, new steel, willow steel the overhaul plan that the heat inside the factory joins rolling mill, add up to the influence coils board produce 220 thousand tons of above. October portion, environmental protection is restricted to produce emerge in endlessly, and other places of Dan of the Han at the beginning of the month, Tang Shan, Shanxi publishs wrong peak to produce a document, last week always steel also was released was restricted to produce the plan of 50% November, specific plan returns Sha Gang to was not announced, wrong peak of steely industry of Tang Shan city produces directory to announce, make the price has on the weekend certain look up. Steelworks profit is higher still nevertheless, steelworks of the city after eliminating uses base of useless steel, air to be restricted to produce policy to developing environmental protection. Crop respect, the steel in occupying assist statistical data shows, in September day of crude steel of look forward to of steel of key of the last ten-day of a month all crop one million nine hundred and eighty-four thousand eight hundred tons, annulus of a period of ten days is compared increase 1400 tons, grow 0.07% . Average in September daily output is 1.98 million tons, grow 69 thousand tons than August, growth range is 3.61% , crop picked up in September extent is taller. And look from domestic stock respect, the steel in occupying assist data, home heats up an inventory stocks of steel products of company of iron and steel of key of the last ten-day of a month was twelve million four hundred and twenty-five thousand tons in September, annulus of a period of ten days is compared reduce one hundred and fifty-three thousand seven hundred tons, drop 1.22% . Social inventory respect, according to me net statistic heats up an inventory of merchandise on hand two million and eighty-eight thousand five hundred tons, annulus is added than last week 0.73% . Increase scope not quite. Hind city, need pays close attention to stock change circumstance mainly, and the real executive strength that environmental protection is restricted to produce.
Watch 2 2018 year October heats up a repair sheet of make friends line the 2nd week
3, period snail period now base poor bigger option market considerably concussion
From this week option market looks, zhou Chu suffers environmental protection to be restricted to produce policy to emerge in endlessly, the Central Bank falls impact of exact benefit good fuse, price of overlay whorl steel period now base differ those who amount to 600 yuan to be apart from, futures price is pulled quickly litre, two days of accumulative total are pulled go up 100 yuan. Suffer this to drive, period roll price Yi Mingxian is tired go up 50 yuan, and heat coils spot market expression is inanimate however, dimension is certain move, clinch a deal the respect improves somewhat. Good times don't last long, last week 4, global stock market steeps fall, affect commodity futures drops considerably, because heat up a demand of merchandise on hand not as good as whorl, add period now base difference is opposite not quite, cause period roll price list day steeps fall 121 yuan, spot market still maintains the Buddha of narrow cut concussion to fasten pattern, market confidence is opposite nevertheless be thwarted. Up to 23 days, period roll the price 3873 yuan, relatively Tianjin heats up a difference of radical of merchandise on hand to be - 247 yuan, maintain normal level basically. From the point of this week show, as a result of whorl steel radical is differred bigger, go up to the price ever propping up, in second drive, close larger in January possibility is futures concussion goes up to draw close to merchandise on hand, repair partial radical is poor.
Graph 2 hot-rolling coil board period present price difference collects general drawing
4, this week Tianjin heats up an inventory to be digested somewhat
This week Tianjin heats up an inventory to appear to be digested certainly. According to statistic of net of Lan Gegang iron, main storehouse total reserve is market of 10.16-10.22 Tianjin hot-rolling 139 thousand tons, zhou Huan comparing falls 18 thousand tons. This week Tianjin heats up a price a week to be in basically dimension is certain in spend, according to trafficker report, as a result of Zhou Chu futures rises greatly, the initiative that takes money downstream has strengthen certainly, trafficker shipment of 4140 yuan of prices. As dish of case of metaphase commodity price decline again, market shipment has certain set back, the trafficker on the operation dimension firm discretion is wait-and-see. Will look at present, downstream demand releases a space finite, jiashanghong watchs message face to cover this world, to hind city, trafficker is general relatively pessimistic, the near future is fortunately comfortable meet heating season, various places comes on stage in succession be restricted to produce program, gave aid to on certain rate rate the price (this week, linyi publishs poor dissimilation to be restricted to produce program) , in at present the situation falls, major trafficker chose dimension firm wait-and-see, wait for a good price to sell. According to Lan Gegang iron net is monitored, tianjin heat coiled on October 16 the price is certain, 3.75-11.75*1500mm general coils, bao Chengtang steel, respect property, an Feng, in iron, too steel 4140 yuan, manganese adds 150 yuan.
Graph 3 Tianjin heat up an inventory count graph
This week, home heats up a price to maintain pattern of narrow cut concussion, trafficker manner discretion is pessimistic. demand end, up to now, downstream demand release force is spent finite, each economy data covers this world last week, 3 quarters GDP is added fast 6.5% , under 6.6% what the market anticipates. 1-9 month, capital construction investment grows 3.3% compared to the same period, relatively before the value is added fast fall again 0.9 percent, and September car sales volume 1.905 million, glide compared to the same period 13.2% , successive two months glide more than 10% , demand side or have secret worry. Hind city, the author thinks, short-term inside domestic heat coils or will still maintain pattern of narrow cut concussion, and will for a long time look, heat up a price or pressure of existence be issued to lower levels.