. Although enter heating season around, sex of phase of iron ore demand exceeds the market to anticipate, but later period demand will still progressively fall after a rise.
. In become a useful person wait for black to fasten breed to turn strong before, iron ore will still maintain weak force prices.
. Iron ore is short-term drop considerably continuously the space is not large, after can paying close attention to far month agreement to continue to drop considerably super- cheapen value.
Nearly a few trade day, the iron ore futures with strong all the time early days drops considerably quickly; Although on November 19, come to grade of iron ore operation be adjusted first in nearly a few months for " hold empty " , and near future prices goes force is main in according with quarterly reports " iron ore may appear ' before strong hind weak ' posture, structure matching mine may change somewhat, concussion interval predicts to be 470-530 " judgement, but iron ore inside what black department drops is rapid and acuteness, still exceed anticipation of most market personage; For this, later development will undertake to prices of iron ore later period brief discuss:
One, at present although iron ore demand exceeds the market to anticipate, but later period still has drop space
Last week, season of heating of make one's bow, most area environmental protection is restricted to produce executive strength still not tall, domestic blast furnace is produced can quantity of utilization rate, evacuation of cargoes from port still maintain exalted level, end of iron ore demand behaves supermarket field actually to anticipate. Up to on November 23, countrywide blast furnace is produced can utilization rate still maintains the higher level of 83.84% , grow 6.8% considerably compared to the same period; Day all quantity of evacuation of cargoes from port is two million seven hundred and eighty-five thousand six hundred tons, grow 0.9% compared to the same period.
But profit of near future steelworks already by compress quickly considerably, overhaul of partial steelworks blast furnace will increase somewhat, rate of start working of countrywide blast furnace was on November 23 64.54% , week comparing drops 0.28% ; And as winter seasonal the grow in quantity that pollutes weather, the environmental protection that assesses as each district administration is restricted to produce strength to still can increase somewhat; Accordingly, although enter heating season around, sex of phase of iron ore demand exceeds the market to anticipate, but later period demand will still progressively fall after a rise.
2, supply of early days iron ore exceeds seasonal on the low side, but later period will increase somewhat
Normally, four quarters are busy season of abroad mine shipment, but suffer maintenance of force develop haven, BHP to derail this year wait for element influence, shipment of abroad mainstream mine still does not have apparent increment, came on October 1 on November 18, 4 big mine always deliver goods the quantity is one hundred and thirty-three million four hundred and eighty thousand tons, drop compared to the same period about 8 million tons / 5.7% ; Brazil always delivers goods the quantity is 53.75 million tons, drop compared to the same period about 2.11 million tons / 3.8% , australia always delivers goods to China the quantity is 88.41 million tons, drop compared to the same period about 9.33 million tons / 9.5% .
Current, the influencing factor such as the haven of mine shipment, content shedding is solved already basically, and mainstream mine needs to finish year shipment to plan normally, reach according to sailing date already announced shipment figure computative, shipment of mine of later period Australia reachs harbor quantity to will have more apparent increase, brazilian mine increment is not big, predicting the four seasons spends global iron ore to supply will still small growth makes an appointment with 11 million tons.
3, weak situation changes short-term iron ore hard, value of Dan Yuanyue contract may be reflected stage by stage
1, macroscopical economy pressure still is in, "The dredge that the money conducts channel " it is one of main factors
"Macroscopical economy pessimism and environmental protection are restricted to produce limit to loosen " it is two when epicycle black department drops main factors. The market is loosened to environmental protection limit already had more sufficient knowledge, and carry to macroscopical economy: October although economic data shows landed tenacity still is in, capital construction look forward to is firm pick up somewhat, become a useful person waiting for effective demand is winter only seasonal glide, did not appear economy glides suddenly the appearance that causes demand atrophy; But be in harmony of M2, company, credit and manufacturing industry glide relatively apparent, before be like, conference of the Political Bureau puts forward, domestic economy still faces pressure of be issued to lower levels; Nearly a few months come, the government is rolled out ceaselessly " capital construction fills short board " , " 6 firm policy " wait for firm economy hurried to increase measure, but at present effects still not apparent. Combinative early days is macroscopical produce classics survey situation, think " the dredge that the money conducts channel " it is macroscopical economy when can look forward to is firm one of main factors that pick up.
2, steelworks profit glides apply press raw material, iron ore is short-term weak situation changes hard
Integrated analysis of before two parts, heating season around, field of main area supermarket anticipates iron ore improvement -- achieve level sex " prosperous acme " , and two upright pressure all will increase later period supply and demand, main area will walk along iron ore stage by stage weak; In the meantime, since November, steelworks profit glides quickly make an appointment with 320-700 yuan / ton, increasing steelworks begins small profit even deficit, its take the cost of the raw material such as iron ore seriously to compress more and more, match mine to also change gold to the pace cling to, in exceeding hill of special, Rhea to wait small assortment, on any account tastes price difference to close further narrow, although will make dish of face but complete a business transaction tastes the price relatively strong, but centre of gravity of price of iron ore whole will fall move;
Accordingly, in become a useful person wait for black to fasten breed to turn strong before, iron ore will still maintain weak force prices.
3, short-term drop considerably continuously the space is not large, attention far month exceeds possibly cheapen value
Current, black department market still is in panic in the center, still do not have mass reduction in production, be restricted to produce wait for advantageous element to appear, iron ore base difference is pulled quickly also go to about 80 yuan greatly / ton inside year high point position, as inventory of steelworks on the high side use up reach spot price to drop quickly, steelworks of partial small stock will appear demand of certain low filling money, make later period high base poor likelihood with dish concussion of area weak potential, merchandise on hand draws close stage by stage means is progressively repair; In the meantime, become a useful person advocate have certain space through the low inside year still is apart from after a month drops repeatedly, but iron ore advocate be in repeatedly deduct exchange rate after fluctuant element, already a bit under the low inside year, rise continuously in crop of global crude steel (came in January crop of global crude steel was 1.194 billion tons in August, rise compared to the same period 4.8% ) below setting, if far month agreement continues to drop considerably, it is certain to be had stage by stage super- cheapen value;
Accordingly, iron ore is short-term drop considerably continuously the space is not large, after can paying close attention to far month agreement to continue to drop considerably super- cheapen value.
Will integratedly look, iron ore deducts exchange rate element to already dropped to the low inside year around, base difference expands to inside year near high point, market risk mood is released somewhat, short-term will with weak force dish whole give priority to, continue to drop considerably the space is limited; But main area pressure will still increase later period stage by stage, if black fastens whole to continue to lose, criterion price centre of gravity still can fall subsequently move, after can paying close attention to far month agreement to continue to drop considerably super- cheapen value; In the meantime, should be on guard the key nods an iteration around concussion washs dish of influence that reachs the macroscopical economy risk such as Sino-US trade friction.