Merchandise on hand tightens spruce overlay cost to increase
Whorl steel goes nearly a few days situation slant weak, appear to be adjusted continuously, brunt 1901 agreement relatively callback of 5 closing quotation exceeds 100 yuan last week / ton, we think, whorl steel continues the space of the callback is relatively limited. On one hand, supply and demand of respect of merchandise on hand tightens balance pattern continuance, whorl steel stock falls continuously, market natural resources is limited, steelworks and trafficker hold out valence mood thicker, whorl steel does not have the base that drops continuously. Nearly a few date go now situation deviate from, the merchandise on hand below the case that goes weak continuously in futures still strong, bring about futures agio to expand continuously, restrict dish of range further be issued to lower levels. On the other hand, after whorl steel new GB is carried out, manufacturing cost rises somewhat, new GB prohibits wearing water craft production, the dosage of silicon manganese and vitriol increases, drive up the manufacturing cost of whorl steel. Be based on the influence of new GB, at present cost of production of electric arc furnace is in 4200, 4300 yuan / ton between, cost restricts dish of face to continue be issued to lower levels.
Period go now power is continuous differentiation
Near future futures and merchandise on hand go situation split up continuously, bring about futures agio to expand. From last week 5 to now, futures brunt agreement drops more than 100 yuan / ton, and merchandise on hand does not drop to go up instead, merchandise on hand of steel of Shanghai area whorl rises 20 yuan / ton. Period show differentiation to still be in continuously, at present 1901 agreement agio is in whorl steel brunt 650 yuan / or so tons.
Respect of merchandise on hand, the pattern that supply and demand tightens a balance still is in continuance, inventory of the rolled steel after 11 long holidays appears 3 weeks to drop considerably continuously, and fall fast accelerating ceaselessly. Cut is consummate Zhou Wu, steelworks and social inventory tot thirteen million nine hundred and fifty-one thousand six hundred tons, relatively fifteen million eight hundred and thirty-six thousand six hundred tons after the National Day drop 1.885 million tons, fast spruce rate still is in merchandise on hand aggravate, appear to be short of the circumstance of norms partly even. Trafficker and steelworks resource all relatively nervous, the desire that hold out valence is stronger, do not have the power that casts goods to pound price.
Futures respect, the market is stemmed from right tall supply and of estate adjusting control anxious, go situation slant continuously weak. On one hand, be restricted to produce this year anticipate not as good as, steelworks yield rises somewhat, brought greater psychological pressure to the market; On the other hand, the sale goes estate continuously this year weak, anxious sale goes the market to be able to be conducted sooner or later infirmly to new go into operation, the demand of steel of whorl of be a burden on.
Above of futures tall agio goes up means completes repair
Since 2018, the biggest agio exceeds agreement of whorl steel brunt 1000 yuan / ton, among them the biggest agio is 1801 agreement 1048 yuan / ton, the biggest agio is 1805 agreement 1216 yuan / ton, the biggest agio is 1810 agreement 1474 yuan / ton. Although every agreement all appears,cross deepness agio, but final all repair, and all be finish with the means that futures rises.
The reason that all previous tall agio forms is narrated like preamble place is to stem from the pessimism of pair of main areas to anticipate, but all did not cash finally such pessimism anticipates, it is spots persists instead the pessimism of market of bogus of driving and continual evidence anticipates, cause dish of cover final up repair. Although we do not deny the close balance pattern of whorl steel to be able to change direction finally somewhat, but in light of the 1901 agreement from instantly, supply and demand of merchandise on hand two flourishing, and be about to enter in November, this kind of pessimism anticipates have again by the likelihood of card bogus, futures chooses possibly still finally up repair.
New GB carries litre of production cost
Begin from October 1, whorl steel new GB is carried out, period place also revised the requirement of complete a business transaction of whorl steel on. New GB is more strict to the quality requirement of whorl steel, the technology wearing water that very much in the past small steel mill uses will be prohibited completely, and need increases the dosage of manganese of the silicon in alloy and vitriol, this will bring about whorl steel to produce cost to carry further litre, price of near future vitriol rises continuously. Understand according to us, new GB makes the steelworks production cost that the part needs to increase silicon manganese and vitriol dosage raises 200, 300 yuan / ton, cost is at present highest is factory of electric arc furnace, cost of its newest whorl steel production is in 4200, 4300 yuan / ton, 1901 contract price is in dish of face 4100 yuan / ton around, actually already under electric stove cost. Accordingly, cost factor can be dish of face to bring stronger prop up.
The place on put together is narrated, we think, whorl steel continues callback space is relatively limited. Supply and demand of respect of merchandise on hand tightens balance pattern continuance, whorl steel stock falls continuously, steelworks and trafficker hold out valence mood thicker, whorl steel does not have the base that drops continuously. And, after whorl steel new GB is carried out, the dosage of silicon manganese and vitriol increases drive up the manufacturing cost of whorl steel, cost factor also restricts dish of face to continue be issued to lower levels.