Since October, concussion of cupreous price narrow cut, expression is not lukewarm not fire, but in lunar end the last trade day, cupreous price jumps considerably empty, break through concussion interval. To hind city, the author thinks increase of macroscopical uncertainty factor, cupreous price or will continue bear pressure, but lower part space is limited.
Macroscopical element still is suppress copper price advocate because of
3 quarterly GDP of American are added fast be as high as 3.5% compared to the same period, achieve the corresponding period is highest since 2015 add fast. Index of confidence of consumer of Zi chamber of commerce recorded the United States in September 137.9, achieve since September 2000 new tall. European respect, ji Huan of 3 quarters GDP compares euro area initial value 0.2% , achieve lowest is added since 2014 fast. Index of manufacturing industry PMI all achieved heart, standard in October even more comes 2 years lowermost level. American economy lasts driving, and fatigued and weak posture did not see European economy improve, beautiful Europe economy goes situation continue to split up, aid the raise on force dollar index, break through 97 integral col for a time, give coloured market pressure.
American president Telangpu is warned, if Sino-US fail to come to an agreement with respect to trade problem, beautiful square likelihood announces to be defeated by beautiful product to add to all and other China at the beginning of December impose custom duty. Go up in G20 summit meeting accordingly, two countries head talks whether obtain progress to will concern trade war future to go situation. Additional, show of Chinese economy data is fatigued and weak, PMI of Chinese government manufacturing industry was recorded in October 50.2, relatively before value and anticipate glide, also increase the market to be anxious to Chinese demand.
Global dominance stock goes low, on the structure inside tighten outside the pine
Since June, stock of global dominance copper goes low continuously, end on October 26, 3 big exchange and inventory of free tax zone add up to 84.84 tons, relatively the corresponding period dropped last year 23.1 tons. Look from the structure, LME inventory is not worth 140 thousand tons, relatively nod 388 thousand tons high this year, drop more than 60% . Foreign stock goes low continuously, also draw premium of litre of merchandise on hand, this week LME premium is as high as 47 dollars for a time / ton, show merchandise on hand supplies insecurity. And go up period place stock is consecutive all around growth, at present car and air conditioning industry all appear negative growth, downstream consumption is fatigued and weak, and be based on the city after be opposite to slant pessimism anticipates, after cupreous price goes low, also did not see purchase actively into city downstream. But the author thinks, the market also need not too pessimistic, go up period place inventory relatively last year the corresponding period still low 4 tons. From the point of the industry, the forehead of accumulative total of investment of electrified wire netting of 1-9 month home that finish glides compared to the same period 9.6% , although still be negative growth, but fall close continuously narrow. Media says China or purchase the car duty halve, in order to stimulate fatigued and weak automobile industry, give cupreous city to prop up.
Graph origin of data of reserve of dominance of 1 whole world: Wind, founder metaphase academy is arranged
The place on put together is narrated, draw near as American metaphase election, sino-US trade problem did not see improvement, US stock October encounters a callback several times, macroscopical uncertainty grow in quantity, economy of overlay beautiful Europe goes situation continue to split up, the dollar lasts exalted, cupreous price or will continue bear pressure. But considering copper mine increment less and smelt is produced can outspread be in a height, copper mine furnishs or show gap, and global copper stock still goes low continuously, space of cupreous price lower part is limited. Proposal investor discretion is wait-and-see, await Sino-US trade situation Anacreontic.