Global economy is added fast put delay
Those who pass a many month dish after rectifying, dish of whole interval is defeated to support below this week copper price. Market difference is very at present big, LME stock falls the low that comes to come for years, nervous to supplying be anxious to exist all the time. Nevertheless, global economy growth puts delay, especially China is consumed not beautiful, plus the dollar strong, cupreous price pressure is greater. Look from the technology, cupreous price opens the interval that be down, possible meeting continues to check early days low, innovate even low. Accordingly, buy of proposal take advantage of an opportunity is empty, pay close attention to the deduction of home and LME inventory at the same time.
Copper is basic face difference is vast pay close attention to change of domestic and international stock
The difference with near future the biggest market depends on the change of domestic and international inventory going up, LME stock falls continuously, had fallen at present those who reach one hundred and thirty-seven thousand six hundred tons is low, for the lowermost level that came 2009. In the meantime, cancel a storehouse sheet is as high as 81 thousand tons, hold stock than 58% , premium of merchandise on hand rises again to 44 dollars, be anxious to make market central point to what copper supplies shortage.
But domestic copper inventory has increased 3 weeks continuously, break away from early days 111 thousand tons low, last week 5 achieve 148 thousand tons. Agio is in all the time since domestic copper merchandise on hand is by September, those who mirror a home to supply is comfortable, this and domestic output and entrance increase considerably about. Copper mine is supplied this year comfortable, treatment expends prep above year to machine cost, reach 90 dollars at present / ton above. Plus home is produced newly this year can put in, amplitude of domestic copper output exceeds last year. Show according to the data of national statistic bureau, amplitude of output of copper of country of before this year 9 the middle of a month is 11.4% , prep above 6.2% last year. The data of SMM statistic, amplitude of output of copper of before 9 months is 11.7. Install the data of peaceful division statistic to also go up ceaselessly tone, install peaceful at present crop increased division general 8.2 million tons from the beginning of the year 2018 8.54 million tons, with 8 million tons crop was compared 2017, amplitude can be in 6% , go more than year of amplitude of 4.7% . Meanwhile, the copper that China did not forging and amplitude of volume of cupreous material import are as high as 16% , the corresponding period was last year - 10% , the entrance increases 500 thousand tons, this also is supplied to domestic copper provided support.
But look from consumption, cupreous consumption amplitude is far this year under last year. Although network of nation of second half of the year invests to increase somewhat, but amplitude of before 9 months still is - 9.6% , annual becomes a full member all up. Automobile industry is successive 4 months enjoy growth, amplitude of before 9 months has 0.6% only, far under 19% last year. Air conditioning industry also is entered off-season, although crop amplitude had in September,pick up, but the situation of integral fall after a rise has been formed. Newest PMI data continues fall after a rise. The situation that understands from the industry looks, the near future has a state only the order of the net is OK still, other cable and air conditioning industry do not have what window.
This week copper price falls, agio of domestic merchandise on hand begins to narrow, but consumptive industry still did not appear to be bought very well dish. At present entrance deficit exceeds 1000 yuan every tons, the entrance is restrained. Accordingly, future is domestic and international of cupreous inventory deduct the central point that makes market attention.
Exchange rate of difficult hopeful dollar becomes macroscopical area dominant element
Cupreous city and stock market are economic barometer together, walk along situation and global economy cycle to agree basically. The 3rd year when go up as cupreous price, cupreous city turns the possibility of situation is very large, conflict of Sino-US this year trade causes immediate blow to the market, at present global estate is mixed automobile industry a pessimism. IMF predicts originally today bright two years economic growth can be maintained last year the perch of 3.9% , but had reduced at present to 3.7% , global economy growth puts delay to make of cupreous city go up the foundation begins to shake.
From the point of newest data, the United States appears on the market company outstanding achievement is better, consumer confidence is achieved came 2000 new tall, but Europe already was gloomy, initial value of GDP of the 3rd quarter has 1.7% only, under expect the cost before mixing, dollar index emersion is strong, break through early days to be opened bit higher go up space, these all form pressure to cupreous city. On November 6 metaphase election also is not certain factor, this matters to Telangpu policy whether continuously. Sino-US leader of next month G20 is potential meeting, but Telangpu's opinion on public affairs still is given priority to with menace, of concerned trade war be anxious still dominant market.
Overall look, in global economy growth turns in weak process, cupreous city forms the possibility of weak force oscillation to increase. The near future we put the central issue on dollar exchange rate, this is global economy and the vane that invest a preference.
If be defeated on dollar index success 97, so cupreous city to in August low 5700 dollars / ton even to last year first half of the year dish whole interval is low a 5500 dollars / ton the possibility of be issued to lower levels is very large, the price of domestic correspondence is 47000 yuan / ton mix 45000 yuan / ton. Accordingly, suggest investor still is given priority to with buy sky, pay close attention to the change of main area at the same time.
(writer unit: The country sends the futures that bring a letter)