. Policy is restricted to produce logistic limit the influence is abate, anticipate cash the line on logic.
. Seasonal off-season advent, hopeful of inventory pressure later period magnifies.
. Industry metaphase puts hidden trouble.
. Northward price difference expands apparently south whorl steel, gross falls south predicting north material or exceed last year, continue to rise to price of whorl steel later period existence is pounded certainly.
In October 2018, black industry chain is in experienced the adjustment September after baptism, new concussion goes up, but still lost power eventually in lunar base. The iron ore of main raw material of steel mine chain carries whorl steel at finished product relatively more strong, in coal anxious chain advocate photograph of raw material cooking coal is more strong to carrying coke at finished product.
Traditional " Jin Jiuyin 10 " already passed, "Policy is restricted to produce " logistic limit affects wear off, "Anticipate cash " already went up logically line. Be restricted to produce policy as heating season by " one knife is cut " adjust for " one factory one plan " , be restricted to produce anticipate intensity drops, demand anticipates carry relatively litre, four quarters still intensity of limit of both sides of key focusing supply and demand contends.
Watch: Black is main in October 2018 product value
Steel products is basic face circumstance
1, policy is restricted to produce logistic limit the influence is abate, anticipate cash the line on logic " policy is restricted to produce " logistic limit affects wear off, be restricted to produce policy as heating season by " one knife is cut " adjust for " one factory one plan " , be restricted to produce anticipate intensity drops, "Anticipate cash " already went up logically line. Whorl steel base difference continues to expand, merchandise on hand works in near future estate to demand prop up fall to still slant strong, futures criterion is ceaseless in logistic transition process happen adjust, close strong far weak pattern is clear.
Rolled steel is supplied keep exalted all the time since picking up September, supply face pressure to be more than last year the corresponding period, rate of start working of the blast furnace after the National Day began to drop in October, crude steel day all crop perch fall after a rise, produce can utilization rate also gives now to fall, be restricted to produce as short-term environmental protection enter cash period reach seasonal feature, rolled steel is supplied already appeared basically the peak value inside year.
2, seasonal off-season advent, hopeful of inventory pressure later period magnifies
Demand of October busy season picks up somewhat, line snail purchases the first ten days of a month in the quantity to pick up, lunar end fall after a rise, affect in downstream estate jumped-up in falling, short-term demand has prop up certainly, expression is relatively driving still.
On one hand, social inventory appeared to accumulate a phenomenon during National Day, but extremely brief, began subsequently new round go quickly inventory, carry in capital insecurity and cost under the double setting that rise, "High yield + costly case " make this year winter store demand is short of apparently break, trafficker is wait-and-see the sentiment is strong, market state of mind turns cool. On the other hand, from October the last ten-day of a month begins to consume off-season advent to the rolled steel south by north as home, social stock goes changing apparent and inventory of steel look forward to is successive and apparent rise, social inventory is transferred to steelworks inventory gradually, demand anticipates cash the circumstance is not hopeful, rolled steel price gets apparently handicap.
Northward price difference expands apparently south whorl steel, gross falls south predicting north material or exceed last year, continue to rise to price of whorl steel later period existence is pounded certainly.
3, industry metaphase puts hidden trouble
Basically leave processional job to rolled steel, still viewpoint of report of the month on reservation. Investment of real-estate industry development is added fast retain as before tenacity, add fast maintain in 10% or so relative stability, but the contribution that is like eliminate land to purchase cost, the result is afraid quite breathtaking, and purchase cost to add as land fast go up of passageway pressure highlight gradually, estate is strong and periodic basic and complete terminative; Turn as weather cold, construction is off-season advent, estate drives time limit for a project to still have to current requirement at present prop up, but from the point of industry index metaphase hidden danger is obvious, demand terminal variable still is increasing.
Infrastructure construction investment is added fast continue to glide, posture of continuance fall after a rise, hair change appoint strength of capital construction of support of raise the quota of project of give an official grows, but an effect that policy sex sustains often do not accomplish in one move, still need time to conduct.
Watch: National hair changed 2018 appoint already general view of project of give an official