Senior analyst He Jianhui from number of job seniority card: F0242190
Alleviate as panicky mood, whole of department of Zhou San black exceeds drop rebound, whorl steel goes situation is opposite stronger, 1901 agreement rise 1.53% . Look from main area, at present building materials demand still is in off-season, heating season is restricted to produce have not materiality is reflected, whorl steel supply and demand is in the poorest phase, but the space that later period has progressively improvement. Predicting whorl period value is short-term still have repeatedly, agreement complete a business transaction drew near in January progressively astringent at merchandise on hand, far month agreement or the raise after oring first, later period can grasp the opportunity that low buys appropriately.
One, be restricted to produce anticipate not as good as, later period strength or increase
Became on November 23, countrywide blast furnace is produced can utilization rate (do not contain fall into disuse produce can) 83.84, relatively 1.34 percent drop before a week, and this data was the corresponding period last year 78.52. Discover not hard from data, heating season has not begin materiality to be restricted to produce this year, policy document is much, actual related each place the action is little. Because the market anticipates heating season is restricted to produce no longer this year, steelworks ton type of bluff of steel gross profit glides, heat coils to had been close to profit and loss near the balance, whorl steel profit also has been not worth 500 yuan / ton.
Although rectify body strength to be loosened somewhat, but we think heating season is restricted to produce cancel possibility completely not quite, later period strength or increase somewhat. On one hand, although environmental ministry and local government were changed infirmly specific be restricted to produce proportional demand, but chroma of number of day of heavy last year pollution, PM2.5 is already inferior, should finish target difficulty this year not small, be restricted to produce go up in rhythm or tighten after the pine first, bedding face of near future whole nation accumulates an area to spend mist haze to will force policy carries out strength to upgrade again continuously. On the other hand, be restricted to produce limits to expand this year, useless steel adds scale to had been in higher level, although be restricted to produce strength to loosen, those who supply pressure to also may imagine without the market is so big.
Graph 1, countrywide blast furnace is produced can utilization rate (do not contain fall into disuse produce can)
Graph 2: Ton type of bluff of steel gross profit glides
2, demand is in off-season, later period still has prop up
Demand side, because air temperature drops shutdown of northward building site, at present building materials demand is in a tradition off-season, also did not see besides additional glide considerably, inventory of rolled steel society, steelworks inventory did not appear to be accumulated apparently. Whorl steel drops inside spot price short time 1000 yuan / ton, what to off-season supply and demand aggravation has reacted is relatively sufficient.
From now on before the macroscopical October data that publish looks, pressure of economic be issued to lower levels still bigger, nevertheless become divided of sex of structure of rolled steel demand still is in continuance. Landed investment although somewhat fall after a rise but add fast still taller, as fill short board raise the quota, capital construction investment is added fast somewhat look forward to is firm, and immediate outcome gets manufacturing industry and rolled steel Sino-US trade friction is pounded still relatively fatigued and weak. Policy of predicting later period carries steady growth to basically still count investment, we are not too pessimistic to whorl steel demand, heat up a demand to still slant weak, but Sino-US trade friction still has repeatedly, follow-up influence remains to observe.
Graph 3: Building materials demand still is in a tradition off-season (Shanghai line snail purchases an amount: 10 thousand tons)
Graph 4: Inventory of whorl steel society still handles level of on the low side of historical the corresponding period
Graph 5: Sex of structure of rolled steel demand splits up, building materials whole is good at plank