Downstream demand lasts low confuse heat to coil rise power

  • Dec, 04th 2018

From October after heat coils to break through concussion interval downward since end, drop continuously, november 1 is to achieve close half an year to come more low 3655 yuan, day drops amount to 3.55% . Suffer trade war effect, heat up a photograph relatively breed of black department other is in weak force all the time, the market forms apparent nominal to go situation, heat up a brunt yesterday price of 1901 agreement closing quotation 3720, settle accounts price 3687, maximum price 3740, minimum price 3650, go up drop - 0.03 % , clinch a deal quantity 1037074, the quantity that maintain a warehouse 717362, the quantitative change that maintain a warehouse is changed - 23568, with settle accounts price computation goes up drop change - 34.

Heat up a spot market to clinch a deal poorer, spot price also from September 4400 yuan first / or so tons all the way fall after a rise arrives at present 4000 yuan / or so tons level, during although futures price rebounds somewhat but did not drive spot price. Market sale pressure is greater, businessman state of mind is more pessimistic, tianjin area is sent continuously except the part outside reaching an agreement, over-the-counter trading clinchs a deal quite low fan, partial businessman to alleviate inventory pressure must depreciate sale. Steel mill of sanded on November 1 steel reduces 100 yuan to heating up a Q235 producer price / ton it is market pessimism anticipates aggravate more. End on November 8, hot-rolling coils board average price of 4.75mm whole nation is 4086 yuan / ton, beijing price is 3980 yuan / ton, tianjin price is 3950 yuan / ton, guangzhou price is 4020 yuan / ton, shanghai price is 3910 yuan / ton, happy it is 4040 yuan from the price / ton.

In light of supply end, heat up a start working rate to produce can utilization rate lasts exalted, show according to Mysteel survey, end on November 2, heat up a steelworks start working to lead 93.75% , steelworks is produced can utilization rate 83.65% , grew 3.96% last year compared to the same period, on the whole, a steelworks is heated up to produce the perch that 80% above can be located in all the time between time-sharing of utilization rate greater part since this year. In light of later period, each district enters season of autumn winter heating to be restricted to produce level gradually, but be restricted to produce strength this year on the whole not as good as last year, be restricted to produce plan to look from what and other places of hill of near future the Tang Dynasty announces, be restricted to produce policy to become loose somewhat, heating up a manufacturing steelworks at the same time basically is the large steelworks of China north area, heating season is restricted to produce policy to be affected to its lesser, predicting later period heats up a crop to drop not apparent.

Heat up a downstream demand end to last low fan, industry of main and downstream automobile fails to continue since this year high speed rose situation last year, as a result of base of produce and sale of our country car already bigger, quantity of car produce and sale is already successive 3 months drop compared to the same period, end September, car output accumulative total twenty million four hundred and ninety-one thousand three hundred, grew 0.87% only last year compared to the same period, and home appliance industry suffers effect of be issued to lower levels of 34 lines real estate, begin to add from July fast put delay gradually. At the same time Sino-US trade friction coils to also have certain effect downstream to heat, among them the downstream industry such as electric machine and equipment manufacturing industry, current equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing industry and metal industry is higher to exporting depend on sb or sth for existence to spend, what suffer an effect bigger.

Mysteel publishs reserve data yesterday, heated up a total reserve annulus on November 8 than dropping one hundred and sixty-nine thousand nine hundred tons, heat up a social inventory to drop two million two hundred and forty-three thousand four hundred tons, annulus comparing drops one hundred and sixty-six thousand three hundred tons, steelworks inventory annulus is compared drop 3600 tons. In light of whole, in heating up an inventory to be in the history small position, heat up an inventory to drop considerably yesterday, alleviated on certain level market sentiment, futures price begins to rebound afternoon, but stock goes changing whether remain to observe continuously. And the city after most trafficker thinks heat coils nots allow generally hopeful, to filling actively the desire of the library is not great. Annulus of steelworks board order is compared since November also give now to slip, sale pressure increases, steel trade business mirrors partial steelworks to begin to offer money actively.

On the whole, heating season is restricted to produce lesser to heating up an influence, although be put in heat to coil,change the line of production whorl phenomenon, but heat up a crop to realize annulus to compare growth as before, the possibility that volume of later period supply drops considerably is not large, and demand end lasts low confusing is to squelch the price rebounds more, will look from technical level, at present heat coils to still be located in early days to drop inside the passageway, but 3650 around existence are propped up more by force, nominal decreases a storehouse to drive the price to rebound later period pays close attention to 3800 around whether breakthrough. Roll although snail difference begins repair, but on one hand thread is main the face coils by force at heat, on the other hand as whorl steel new bid execute, whorl steel cost rises somewhat, later period is long strong board weak structure predicts to will continue to continue.