Presiding forecast: 2019 open year of steel price to drop is

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Setting: October since end, black is each main breed all appears of different level drop, among them whorl brunt agreement falls situation particularly remarkable. From futures dish on the face for, a marked change is very fetching attention: Whorl brunt agreement holds a storehouse to measure after the near future drops continuously, appeared to rise quickly on November 6, what accompanying brunt agreement is broken a be issued to lower levels, to dish the change on the face, how should be we unscrambled, does period snail follow-up go situation how should judge again?

Period snail price already fell at present price of cost of furnace of broken electric arc is the following, can this kind of trend last? Drop considerably in whorl price while, sure sign of brief look forward to already appeared on hot drum face, what is the account that takes situation backside? ...

To afore-mentioned problems, we interviewed Wang Jianhua of analyst of banquet of radicals by which characters are arranged in traditional Chinese dictionaries of career of rolled steel of Shanghai steel couplet technically, be wide readership to offer black of li clear near future is period the reference that spot market walks along situation backside logic.

Core viewpoint:

1, price of period snail brunt calls 4000 the following positions, explain Duokongbo weichis to be increased further. 1901 contract price hits period snail considerably the airspace that control is finite, future is gigantic a fluctuant probability is bigger.

2, main area price gives place to stage by stage futures fixes a price, and the abidance of futures drops considerably, shook of spot market slant much hope, this kind of influence just just began, but should go much far, influence is much more profound, also should treat futures short-term still have hit how oldly control an airspace. The condition with potential market is, dropped November one part, dropped again December one part, and true advocate drop big probability appeared December.

3, cost rises, can hit above all control high cost company. So, futures should fall, 1901 agreement should arrive at least near line of electric steel cost (3950 the left and right sides) . Because pessimism is grumous, scalar potential of 1905 agreement eye, do not eliminate to hit overwhelm the industry is average near cost line (cost of company of example of steel couplet investigation was in in October 3567, if add alloy by new GB,be in 3800 the left and right sides) . Notable is, cost is dynamic.

4, from last week 4 in the evening, zhou Wu begins, roll prices of snail poor rehabilitate has begun. But repair is so so won't fast, proper. This is put in certain variable among them, depend on the main area of both. Should amend in former years to coil prep above snail 200 more difficult, can revise smooth cost already very pretty good.

It is to interview memoir below:

Small make up: Whorl brunt agreement 4244 since drop, can divide from the quantity that maintain a warehouse for two phase, the first phase was on October 26 to November 5, the volume that maintain a warehouse drops continuously, and begin from November 6, the quantity that maintain a warehouse begins to rise quickly, from such change, how you judge prospective period snail go situation?

Wang Jianhua: From recently add a storehouse to look, investor is increased in 4000 around difference, rich play chess increases, short-term go force is main see capital actual strength just be opposite the acknowledge with much emptier market and choice.

Before one phase holds what the storehouse measures to drop, on one hand the reason is in Yu Yicang's demand, and main reason depends on, before 4200 above are attacked to have on bull gain profit dish run away, in the meantime, empty sheet also has chop a storehouse. Additional, the quantity that maintain a warehouse and price also have particular concern, arrive 4000 even 4000 the following positions, bull is not willing to allow by dozen pressure, and be in 4100 or the position of above, bull more upgrade walks along a futures nature such as the tendency, because meeting existence inventory increases,nominal can make the venture that control. Price of period snail brunt has been in 4000 the following, explain Duokongbo weichis to be increased further.

Theoretic say to should want to move storehouse, but current 1901 contract maintain a warehouse the quantity still is in historical perch, the difference that shows much emptier this year both sides is very big, and the range of wave motion of later period prices that the quantity that maintain a warehouse brings greatly more is vaster also.

The individual thinks, 1901 agreement fall to 3800 area at most, again downward the space is very little.

And 1905 agreement cannot see basic face at present, when experiencing what demand of month of next year 1-2 is not constant error even, nod, especially the circumstance that Spring Festival around does not have demand, can empty 1905 agreement.

To 1905 agreement, I am in emphasized wanting to see relative value when communication of the last ten-day of a month in October (be in at that time 3850 the left and right sides) change, the first is opposite change at spot price extent, if merchandise on hand drops it is 600-800, so futures falls the possibility of a 200-300 is very tall; The 2nd is opposite 1805 will look with 1810 contract price, lowest has dropped respectively this year 3300 and 3100 the left and right sides, in view of more pessimistic to market of next year prices, even if raised the alloy cost of new GB, at present the price (opposite the value when the last ten-day of a month is the greatest in October already dropped go 300) , after rebounding, still have probably drop space.

Small make up: Nearly a few trade day, drop as futures, the spot price with relatively strong early days also begins to become loose, you how market of look upon near future pays close attention to this quite period now base does difference go situation?

Wang Jianhua: Spot price already was in opposite perch, steelworks profit relatively rich and generous, main area price gives place to stage by stage futures fixes a price, and the abidance of futures drops considerably, shook of spot market slant much hope, this kind of influence just just began, but should go much far, influence is much more profound, also should treat futures short-term still have hit how oldly control an airspace. And as complete a business transaction of later period drawing near, period show inevitable rehabilitate.

Base poor rehabilitate, it is iron rule. But base poor rehabilitate method is more complex. Rehabilitate of the first phase, merchandise on hand wants fast at futures drop. Of merchandise on hand drop get merchandise on hand is basic the influence of the face. In spot price the circumstance with rich and generous profit of tall, steelworks, at present the price begins to change futures to the price slowly, right now, merchandise on hand leaves drop.

The 2nd phase, futures falls to be not moved. This one phase divides kind of case, the first kind of circumstance is, what if main area exceeds merchandise on hand,anticipate is good, possible futures falls to be not moved, exceed even drop rebound, so merchandise on hand can rise again; Still have a kind, main area cannot see merchandise on hand improve, merchandise on hand can continue to drop. Put in uncertainty in the 2nd phase so, base poor likelihood continues to pull big, narrow possibly also, maintain concussion likely also.

The 3rd phase, enter month of complete a business transaction, base poor recursive performance draws close to merchandise on hand for futures. In this one phase, no matter merchandise on hand is,going up is to drop, futures goes likely up. Short-term for, hitting at present press the futures below the circumstance to still won't rise quickly, but futures wants upgrade rehabilitate to also have 3 premise, it is the first with the 2nd phase, the range that futures rebounds won't be too big, the likelihood maintains 4000-4100 around position; 2 be, merchandise on hand cannot drop to 4000-4100 left and right sides quickly. Probable condition is, dropped November one part, dropped again December one part, and true advocate drop big probability appeared December; The 3rd, nominal whether the resource of complete a business transaction that takes low.

Small make up: According to me the net is calculated, cost of electric arc furnace all valence is probably 3980, and at present whorl 1901, 1905 want with 1910 contract price under this one horizontal, you how does forward contract price want look upon at present under issue of cost of electric arc furnace?

Wang Jianhua: Forward contract is pair of future values anticipate, and the expression that cost of electric arc furnace is instantly, as prospective spot price drop, will naturally hit control raw material price, cost also is met subsequently fall after a rise. My individual feels, in benefit sky firm background falls, price of far month futures makes cost of electric arc furnace is the first target only below.

In moment of enterprise usury embellish, need not pay close attention to cost. When whole market true very poor, value arrives when cost brim, cost is the ceiling.

Whole industry environment has been different from the past at present, the enterprise begins to pay attention to benefit, when having a deficit in the past, for instance 2013 to 2015, deficient 200-300 also can continue to work, different now, the enterprise wants beneficial result, to average cost, the enterprise can choose to stop be restricted to produce. Instantly arrives cost line, trends amends the likelihood downward, but the price is worse than cost low 200-300.

In the meantime, some enterprises may be less than cost to begin reduction in production. Cost rises, can hit above all control high cost company. So, futures should fall, 1901 agreement should arrive at least near line of electric steel cost (3950 the left and right sides) . Because pessimism is grumous, scalar potential of 1905 agreement eye, do not eliminate to hit overwhelm the industry is average near cost line (cost of company of example of steel couplet investigation was in in October 3567, if add alloy by new GB,be in 3800 the left and right sides) . Notable is, cost is dynamic.

Small make up: Roll board photograph lasts than whorl weak force has exceeded half an year, most steelworks has changed the line of production, still have continue to change the line of production space? You does to coiling snail poor follow-up go situation how to look?

Wang Jianhua: Although say plank is poor this year, but up to now, hot-rolling all price rises whorl of extent prep above. Plank price slants weak from August the last ten-day of a month begins, the near future coils snail difference still is expanding ceaselessly, but drop to certain level when futures, continue to drop get certain resistance. On the other hand, hot-rolling part molten iron turns to rolling line snail, won't increase the amount that turn now. Because car demand is too poor,be only, main area arrives to transform thoroughly inaccessibly, so, roll main area weak Yu Luo.

The comparison that heats up a merchandise on hand to had dropped is much, drop to 3700 area when the price, the meeting on futures has super- drop rebound space, so, heat up a brunt to arrive 3650 when had existed to operate a space certainly.

From last week 4 in the evening, zhou Wu begins, roll prices of snail poor rehabilitate has begun. But repair won't be so fast, so complete. This is put in certain variable among them, this depends on the main area of both. Considering the value that adds alloy, should amend in former years to coil prep above snail 200 more difficult, can revise smooth cost very pretty good.

On the time of repair, snail still does not have the wrongest time, roll the repair prices with poor snail, the likelihood lasts to Feburary Spring Festival around.

Small make up: Be honoured to learn very much, you will be in " week of heavy goods of first 2019 Shanghai " the report that the market looked into steely market 2019 is made on steely annual meeting, can you deny make to opening year of steel city prices 2019 ahead of schedule sentence beforehand ahead of schedule?

Wang Jianhua: Left 2019 year, the probability that prices drops wants a little bit big, but put in a few variable. The variable of existence depends on, if was reached in November,the market appeared December unusual drop greatly, prices is leaving year appear instead repair.