Since November, cupreous price pours fast fall after a rise. Word of Sino-US leader electrify is carried at the beginning of November brace up market sentiment, cupreous price newspaper receives big positive line, the market that data of economy of storehouse, country makes cause centrally in LME inventory later is anxious, and beautiful in December couplet store add breath anticipate wait for a series of disturbing under, cupreous price all the way be issued to lower levels. Cut is consummate Zhou Wu, shanghai copper receives a reply 6 even shade. We predict follow-up copper price goes situation still bear pressure.
Main area is exhausted weak
According to custom newest data, our country copper and volume of cupreous material import were 423 thousand tons in October, relatively 520 thousand tons of September dropped 18.7% . Since October, copper imports window of profit and loss to be shut continuously, price of excessive of foreign hill copper also by the perch end September 115 dollars / ton drop continuously to 90 dollars / ton. At present cupreous entrance deficit makes an appointment with 1000 yuan / ton, predict to will continue to restrict an import.
According to SMM newest statistic, in October output of copper of our country essence seven hundred and twenty thousand six hundred tons, annulus comparing grows 0.53% , decrease compared to the same period 0.26% . This data not as good as desired value seven hundred and thirty-one thousand six hundred tons, because coloured of big smelt metal, Jinchuanji is round,basically wait for refine factory the overhaul is more, and northward copper industry is by September close formally stop below the banner 100 thousand tons to produce per year can Hou Ma smeltery. In addition, of put into production of second half of the year in industry of aluminous southeast copper and country cast Jin Cheng metallurgy to still had no copper of essence of life to yield in October.
However notable is, our country stock does not fall to rise instead since October. Cut is consummate Zhou Wu, inventory of period place copper is one hundred and forty-two thousand two hundred tons on, relatively had risen by September 27% . Supply decrease to rise with inventory what the contradictory reflection between gives demand to carry is exhausted weak. CPI and PPI data showed macroscopical economy continues October bear pressure, and next CPI and PPI fear facing pressure of be issued to lower levels. The industry such as home appliance, real estate and car consumes expression all relatively exhausted weak, car sales volume is successive 4 months glide. Electric power respect, according to SMM survey, rate of go into operation of wire cable company was in October 86.2% , annulus comparing drops 2.64 percent, and partial enterprise has not enough to meet the need as a result of capital, cut produce partly nearly can utilization rate, predict start working rate was shown as before in November drop posture.
At present cupreous concentrate treatment is expended and vitriolic price maintains perch to will continue to stimulate smelt to produce can put in, and year end enterprise has power to achieve year goal maintain expensive go into operation to lead. In addition, produce a plan to look according to the platoon of each refine factory, refine plant overhaul was affected to integral crop in November not quite. SMM predicts crop was seven hundred and thirty-seven thousand nine hundred tons in November, grow 2.78% compared to the same period; 1, accumulative total crop will achieve seven million nine hundred and sixty-four thousand five hundred tons in November, compared to the same period amplitude 9.6% .
In light of whole, last in economy below the pressure of be issued to lower levels, consumption goes weak ceaselessly, and tall treatment cost still supports supply what increase ceaselessly to anticipate. Although go up,period place and LME copper inventory still are in low, but inventory is in to the profit good motive of cupreous price wear off, the pattern that domestic copper seeks for be more than or continuance.
Macroscopical disturb the element still is put
On November 1, word of Sino-US leader electrify is carried brace up market sentiment, cupreous price is pulled considerably for a time litre. However the problem of core controversial issue that Sino-US commerce chafes did not get settlement, sino-US leader predicts to will be in the talk meets before the G20 peak of end was met in November, before this, sino-US trade problem to macroscopical level disturb to still be put.
Last week 5 beautiful couplet store announce in November regular meeting summary, maintain the view of pair of economy foreground, added in December breath anticipate warm up. In addition, yield of American short-term national debt rises to 10 years new tall, the dollar rises greatly. European respect, the European Union moves growth of GDP of low next year to anticipate, allude Italian economy to put delay, euro wave motion may be aided further those who push a dollar is strong, cupreous price bear pressure.
Domestic side, this week will publish data of important in October economy, below the setting that glides in economy, macroscopical pressure is aggravating.
On the whole, on one hand pressure of economic existence be issued to lower levels, supply the contradiction between end and inventory to be being shown on the other hand, exhausted weak trend changes requirement hard. Supplying what increase to go weak continuously with consumption ceaselessly to anticipate below, low a stock is fine to the benefit of cupreous price action wear off. And macroscopical respect, the dollar keeps strong, domestic macroscopical pressure is aggravating, overlay is Sino-US trade problem, cupreous price goes up pressure is apparent.