Held at Shandong Wei lane recently 2018 (the 6th) catenary of industry of Chinese zinc oxide trades the peak is met on, month of senior analyst Liu Meng represents industry of zinc of Shanghai coloured net, below the anticipation that supplies step up, zincic price difficult talk is hopeful 2019, centre of gravity or next farther moving.
"Begin from 2016, rise stage by stage as zincic price, profit presents apparent become divided between mine and smeltery. Since 2018, accompany the fast be issued to lower levels of zincic price, refine factory takes the lead in touching cost line reduction of output is overhauled. " Liu dream month shows, on integral supply and demand, refine end conducts the nervous and progressively Xiang Ye that the market carries by mine.
Liu dream month shows further, take the lead in entering reduction of output to overhaul condition as refine factory, integral demand decreases apparent, domestic and international mine supplies overlay small increase joint action to fall, began July from this year, concentrate of domestic and international zinc machines cost from low appear to be returned apparently litre. "Cost of treatment of concentrate of current home zinc is returned litre reach 4000 yuan / ton upper part, newspaper of entrance treatment cost comes 100 dollars / do ton of upper part. Supply step up to anticipate as mine, predict to machined cost to still have 2019 rise further likelihood. Predict to machined cost to still have 2019 rise further likelihood..
Analysis of Liu dream month says, begin from 2017, foreign zinc mine is produced can appear resume sexual growth, the biggest 2017 increment by company of tower of Indian Wei red mine contributes 3 mine and Peruvian Andamina, increment of this one part amounts to 320 thousand tons. Enter 2018, the much home mine such as the Castellanos of Gamsberg of Australian Dugald River, Africa and Cuba contributes increment, trial production began overlay century mine in August, conservative estimation is abroad 2018 increment of zincic concentrate output is controlled in 400 thousand tons, still had 2019 add mine of zinc of put into production newly, predict output of abroad zinc concentrate will increase further.
"Domestic side, output of domestic zinc concentrate is added situation continuously slow, increment of domestic zinc concentrate predicted to be in 121 thousand tons 2018 around. " Liu dream month thinks, environmental protection and safe problem remain the main factor that limits increment of each district mine, among them, area of beautiful wall of Hunan West Hunan still is in rectify and reform level, predict to resume production hard this year, this part decreases a quantity to predict nearly 100 thousand tons around, and the northern region such as Inner Mongolia suffers mine grade to glide this year wait for element influence, crop also has small to decrease, output of concentrate of predicting annual zinc relatively kept balance basically compared to the same period last year. "Will look on whole, amplitude of domestic zinc concentrate also relatively finite. " Liu dream month shows.
"Import side, entrance of Chinese zinc concentrate measured 2.44 million tons 2017, increase compared to the same period 22% . 2018 1, domestic zinc concentrate imported accumulative total July one million seven hundred and eighty thousand four hundred tons, accumulative total increases compared to the same period 21.26% . " Liu dream month predicts, the quantity that concentrate of abroad 2018 zinc can flow into Chinese home is in 1.44 million tons around, mineral products of together with home measures 4.12 million tons, predict supply of domestic zinc concentrate achieved the growth of 4.1% 2018.
"Supply and demand of domestic zinc concentrate predicted implementation tightens a balance 2019, breach of global zinc concentrate will close further narrow, domestic rate delay at abroad. " Liu dream month shows on the meeting.
"Fine zinc was produced 2019 can will slowgoing release. " Liu dream month says, 2018 1, September, accumulative total of crop of zinc of domestic smeltery fine 3.966 million tons, accumulative total decreases compared to the same period 0.07% . Mine carried insecurity to conduct 2018 to zincic ingot insecurity, a variety of problems such as overlay environmental protection, production, predicting whole output will fall. "Foreign mine output continued to restore to anticipate 2019, at the same time home is maintained produce condition steadily, predicting treatment expends suitable case to fall, factory of will exciting refine produces initiative, domestic smeltery crop will get the part is released 2019, but still need to pay close attention to the element existence such as environmental protection to affect, release at the appointed time add fast relatively will slow. Release at the appointed time add fast relatively will slow..
In Liu Meng the month looks, zincic consumption is added fast still wait for rise, it is galvanization consumes main force as zinc, whole is behaved relatively not hopeful; 2 it is average start working leads alloy of zinc of zinc oxide, die-casting also not as good as last year compared to the same period; 3 it is highway builds investment to keep balance basically last year, whole of investment of domestic electrified wire netting is weaker; 4 was 2018 each data shows estate passable, but national policy adjusting control lasted 2019, predict to have hard good go up; 5 it is consumption of other and main terminal is added fast put delay.
"Inventory respect, current zinc stock keeps low a level, next year hopeful is low pick up. " Liu dream month says, inventory of free tax zone begins disappear library from 2 quarters, from 200 thousand tons of upper part rapid fall after a rise does not reach 100 thousand tons, touch once more inside year low. Zincic society inventory is in many tons 100 thousand currently around, whole maintains inferior position, but as next year mine end is supplied increase, hopeful of inventory of predicting next year begins to pick up.
Liu dream month shows, supplying carry step up to anticipate, zincic price difficult talk is hopeful 2019, centre of gravity or next farther moving, the multiple element such as Dan Shouhong view, policy, environmental protection is affected, whole restores a process to have more uncertainty, meantime price goes situation or have repeatedly. She predicts, price of zinc of month of next year LME3 is in 2200, 3050 dollars / ton, SHFE zinc price is in 18000, 24000 yuan / ton.