Return from 11 small long holidays, roll board with whorl all the time the price deviates from. From two great varieties main and downstream industry looks, estate investment still has tenacity, below the influence that driving time limit for a project October, expression of demand of market of whole building steel products is relatively driving, capital construction investment continues to continue. Investment of later period manufacturing industry still is put in pressure of particular fall after a rise, on one hand, industrial company profit is added since this year fast continuously fall after a rise,
On the other hand, turnover of equipment of car, home appliance, communication drops more apparent. In the meantime, the impact in Sino-US trade war is the biggest export for mechanical and electrical products, at present exit of domestic mechanical and electrical products is added fast consecutive fall after a rise, as commerce attrition turns white-hot, later period continues to lose probability is bigger.
If later period manufacturing industry invests fall after a rise, can squelch further industrial the demand of material, this also is the one big effect that causes pair of plank demand. In fact, since August, roll snail price difference is pulled continuously big, also be one when downstream manufacturing industry goes weak symbolizes.
One, difference of profit of plank of senior capable person continues to expand
Graph one: Heat coils, gross profit takes ton of steel of whorl steel origin of power plan data: Steel couplet data
The profit difference between long plank expands further. Calculate according to Mysteel data, whorl ton gross profit annual hold together is in 1000 yuan over, high point achieves 1474 yuan / ton, hot-rolling coils board ton the gross profit high point from May 1432 yuan / ton issue defeat to reach 800 yuan all the way / ton. From the point of extent of change of profit of of all kinds rolled steel, the profit difference of senior capable person and plank expands further, whorl steel and hot-rolling coil board profit difference already achieved 500 yuan / ton extreme difference of the left and right sides, present fire giving ice the situation of double day. From the point of the trend, long strong board weak situation still can be maintained, predict to won't alleviate somewhat November.
Graph 2: Whorl, roll board origin of data of as poor as the price of billet comparative figure: Steel couplet data
From the point of the price difference with billet, by July at the beginning of August, in some heat of 0 groups point coils, the price difference of whorl steel and billet achieves 450 yuan / ton. Later period both parts company, heat coils to narrow with billet valence is differred ceaselessly, the smallest achieve 70 yuan / ton. Whorl steel enlarges the price difference with billet ceaselessly, the biggest achieve 810 yuan / ton.
From the point of current price difference, whorl steel gain is sizable, heat coils more pessimistic, no matter be from period radical of merchandise on hand is poor, still be flow direction of steelworks molten iron, it is deflection whorl steel. Will look at present, roll the rehabilitate of snail needs period of time more.
2, crop is added together, plank is more apparent
Graph 3: Countrywide hot-rolling coils board origin of data of effective week output: Steel couplet data
Graph 4: Countrywide whorl steel is actual origin of week output data: Steel couplet data
Rate of start working of 247 steelworks blast furnace is 67.54% last week, annulus comparing falls 0.1% . According to output of week of Mysteel survey whorl three million five hundred and four thousand eight hundred tons add nineteen thousand four hundred tons, heat coils three million two hundred and seventy-four thousand four hundred tons add one hundred and sixty-seven thousand seven hundred tons, whorl crop continues small add, heat coils to crop ends as the overhaul and pick up. Season of later period heating is restricted to produce, the crop that basically is pair of building steel products is affected somewhat, space of whorl increase production is not large, but the put into production that heat coils to still have line of certain new increase production.
3, price difference expands ceaselessly, refresh price difference is new tall
Graph 5: Roll snail margin occupies origin: Steel couplet data
From all the year round a snail price is poor in light of, 1-8 month is a grain of strong Yu Luo all the time, price difference is all the time, the already apparent July value that sees heat coils is inferior at whorl, price is similar shrink.
Main reason end at, the bounds of early days produces the crop influence that coils to heat to be less than whorl steel, the stock that causes heat to coil is ceaseless and cumulative. And environmental protection is severe this year check, downstream treatment is faced with much ground shutdown, the demand that coils to heat falls short of a promise greatly. And the car holds larger proportion again with the cold rolling in steel and hot-rolling, can regard delegate hot-rolling as a when downstream demand changes main index car produce and sale so.
In September, car produce and sale is compared go up year of the corresponding period is apparent drop, continued since July low confuse situation. Than going up year of the corresponding period drop respectively 11.7% with 11.6% . Before 1-9 month is compared 8 months are added fast respectively fall after a rise 1.9 with 2 percent, quantity of produce and sale is added fast continuously fall after a rise, overall performance begins to anticipate under the beginning of the year. Be in however capital construction respect, the conference of the Political Bureau of 731 puts forward first " increase infrastructure domain to fill short board strength " up to now, the capital construction investment September lives already firmly, government spending will drive capital construction more quickly October, whorl price has more stronger prop up.
Graph 6: Estate and automobile manufacturing industry invest comparative data origin: Steel couplet data
From the point of whorl demand, estate invests second half of the year all the time hold together 10% the left and right sides, estate invests with steel to whorl steel going changing still is very remarkable. And will look to heating up a demand, the automobile that listed manufacturing industry domain makes investment data, the investment that from the point of this year second half of the year makes in the light of the car is changed infirmly apparently, specification of this great also physical ability heats up an inventory to change slow account this year.
On put together, merchandise on hand coils snail difference is in did not come for some time still hold together loses the likelihood value, and turn negative for inflection point still is had no anticipate, later period merchandise on hand basically pays close attention to the change of whorl steel inventory, china of macroscopical and main attention makes what index of already aid boom and estate invest add fast sequel.