Pulp futures: Price of downstream demand weak situation or s

  • Dec, 04th 2018

One, trade news

Morning cries factory of oar of group Hubei yellow ridge is started last week, this production is produced can 300 thousand tons of DP or 600 thousand tons of BHK, what it is reported begins go into operation is broad leaf oar. The factory installed the oar to cry from Zhan Jiang morning remove the pulp board machine that come over and bale line.

Japanese king company announces mill of 3 islands paper machine of paper of 150 thousand tons of culture changes the line of production wrapping paper, 2019-2020 year finish.

On November 19, dimension amounts to base of paper industry Hubei 2 period project PM1 and PM2 two paper machine switchs on the mobile phone successfully a paper. 4 paper machine is Italy Tesike of the company banner model 2 model bumf machine, stand-alone is produced can 30 thousand tons / year.

On November 19, life of the 3rd high speed uses round Jiangxi of peaceful Cheng Ji paper machine gives paper successfully. This machine stage still is offerred especially by German blessing Yi, 5600mm of only paper fabric width, design speed 2000m/min, the design is produced per year can 60 thousand tons.

2, market price case

Near future wood pulp is supplied enough, inventory perch, and downstream market is fatigued and weak, this week imports price of wood pulp home market to reduce 1%-4% generally. Silver-colored star Shandong all valence reduces 150 yuan to reach 6325 yuan, parrot Shandong all valence reduces 75 yuan to reach 5725 yuan. And factory price of oar of Sen Bokuo leaf holds domestic Asia-Pacific temporarily firm. Outside dish in light of quote, hold temporarily at present firm. Valence differs expression to be our country inside and outside dish hang, and our country price under the United States, this also shows wood pulp market is at present small fan main by domestic stock perch and downstream demand not beautiful be caused by.

Pulp futures will appear on the market in Shanghai futures exchange on November 27 trade, appear on the market big probability of earlier futures price follows spot price is fluctuant, but later period is whole trade situation and price pattern or have a change, the participator inside the industry needs the risk that vigilance brings from this.

3, supply end

1.The whole world gives volume

Global wood pulp gave volume in September 4.624 million tons, rise compared to the same period 7.0% , annulus comparing rises 4.4% , 1-9 month accumulative total gives volume thirty-eight million four hundred and seventy-one thousand tons, rise compared to the same period 2.5% . Oar bleaching a needle gave volume in September 1.909 million tons, drop compared to the same period 7.4% , annulus comparing drops 3.7% , 1-9 month accumulative total gives volume seventeen million six hundred and forty-four thousand tons, drop compared to the same period 1.8% . Global wood pulp is supplied show needle leaf to decrease, the trend of broad Xie Zeng.

2.Home imports an amount

Entrance of our country pulp measured 2.122 million tons in October, rise compared to the same period 16.0% , annulus comparing is small fall 3.5% , 1-10 month accumulative total imports 20.79 million tons, rise compared to the same period 7.0% . Bleached needle oar to import six hundred and eighty thousand seven hundred tons in September, rise compared to the same period 10.0% , annulus comparing rises 13.7% , 1-9 month accumulative total imports 6.156 million tons, drop compared to the same period 6.7% , and broad leaf oar imported 1.006 million tons in September, rise compared to the same period 14.4% , below annulus comparing 13.9% , 1-9 month accumulative total imports seventy-eight million four hundred and thirty-three thousand tons, rise compared to the same period 7.5% . Annual shows broad leaf to import a quantity to increase, and the trend that volume of import of needle leaf oar drops.

From seasonal chart sees, oar bleaching a needle and entrance of oar bleaching broadness are done not have apparent seasonal, but often can make as a result of terminal demand busy season in home of the end of the year import volume increases, expression of demand of our country whole owes beautiful this year, the demand busy season of the end of the year predicts to be inferior to in former years, but import volume anticipates it is certain to still have increase.

4, downstream demand

Last week terminal market not beautiful, partial price is reduced, the part is held firm. Life paper value is held temporarily firm, its Chinese changes the aspect that use paper, base paper of Shandong area large shaft quotes all valence 7600 yuan / ton, the market moves smoothly, pressure of inventory of partial paper mill drops, but wood pulp price is reduced bring about cost to drop, and new sheet clinchs a deal general, downstream agency purchases discretion, motive force of the air on the price is consequently insufficient, dish whole give priority to. Culture is reduced with paper value, majority of price of art paper of and other places of Beijing, Shandong, Sichuan, Shanghai, Fujian is held firm or reduce, trafficker hope is scant, clinch a deal flatly. Wrapping paper of short duration is held firm. Wrapping paper price is held firm, white paperboard hasten is firm, partial area sales promotion, wrong peak of Zhejiang paper mill is produced, jiangsu switchs on the mobile phone paper mill plan has shutdown half moon on the weekend, demand not beautiful, paper mill production is general and normal, and shipment lasts low fan, inventory continues to rise. Market of paper of board of rows of tiles on a roof is held firm, raw material price is certain in glide, paper mill pressure is lesser, just needed to purchase downstream.

Produce a field, terminal demand not beautiful still is behaved in manufacturer start working and crop glide, domestic life used paper crop in October 2018 eight hundred and twenty-one thousand four hundred tons, annulus comparing drops 1.44% , terminal demand not beautiful, partial manufacturer reduction of output. In October newspaper crop 156 thousand tons, annulus comparing rises 6.1% , but November because partial enterprise is sold not beautiful brings about emergency maintenance, industry of Jin Dong paper and overhaul of art paper of industry of China peaceful paper end return to work after a strike or layoff last week, PM24 of sun paper industry and morning cry art paper of factory of United States human relations continues to overhaul, predict this week ends.

5, inventory

Part of stock of haven of European wood pulp and perch grow ceaselessly, in September haven inventory 1.379 million tons, grow 17% compared to the same period, annulus comparing grows 7% , and pressure of inventory of oar bleaching a needle is lesser, europe bleached needle oar inventory in October 204 thousand tons, drop compared to the same period 4% , annulus comparing rises 4% .

Our country imports perch of wood pulp inventory this year, in October total reserve of end Qingdao, Baoding and Changshu harbor 1.41 million tons, than last year the corresponding period is high 1376.8% , annulus comparing rises 16.2% , among them Qingdao harbor inventory 850 thousand tons, annulus comparing rises 34.9% , changshu harbor inventory 470 thousand tons, annulus comparing drops 7.8% , baoding inventory 90 thousand tons, annulus comparing rises 22.9% . Seasonal can see in chart, wood pulp inventory is done not have apparent seasonal, but stocks is big this year, and because downstream demand is depressed, later period does not have the motivation that drops considerably.

Brief summary:

The main pressure of oar price comes from at domestic stock and downstream demand not beautiful, show our country inside and outside consequently dish the price is hanged, our country wait for a phenomenon under American market value. And terminal respect, demand not beautiful and wood pulp price is reduced bring about cost to prop up abate, paper and chipboard price also are in downtrend in, the city after be opposite inside course of study is not hopeful also, partial paper factory owner moves stop production to go inventory, to wood pulp use up adverse. At present inventory of global wood pulp and inventory of our country haven all are in perch and ceaseless addition in posture, have not see descendent power. Consequently pattern of whole supply and demand cannot change a circumstance to fall, oar price short-term or continue to maintain weak force to reduce. Pulp futures will appear on the market in Shanghai futures exchange on November 27, later period needs watchful period to show the commerce effect to whole supply and demand and price, particular operation coachs we will give out in sequel proposal.