Be a week with orgiastic nominal, in international oil price guide below, of home can change breed, carry everything before it, partial commodity drops those who reach calendar year most, besides oil of bitumen, fuel this is planted and outside the breed with stronger sex of crude oil correlation, of PTA drop situation also let National People's Congress open horizon.
PTA: ? Is miserly of Chinese toon of deep and remote harmonious graceful?
Zhou Wu night dish PTA jumps sky is low, dish in drop to lowest for a time 5768 yuan / ton, with 5758 yuan when this PTA prices just rose on July 19 / ton photograph comparing, PTA bag bag turns circuit came back again. In fact, epicycle PTA is at the beginning of September reached highest value, how oil price goes tall all the way, PTA suffers oil price to push after the callback somewhat go up small rebound reach 7580 yuan / ton around, international oil price drops all the way later, PTA also did not die, dropped to Zhou Wu Brent from October 10 30.37% , PTA also dropped 21.74% .
Downstream: Many what demand thinks than us
Oily city was to defer merely to the influence of PTA drop time place, accelerated dropping process at the same time. After all, macroscopical depression, downstream consumption is depressed it is to be able to see gotten fact.
Enter after November, the start working rate of downstream polyester filament is in drop ceaselessly, lowest falls for a time to 84.8% , polyester factory tries to go through reducing the way that start working leads to come true inventory, the effect how?
The effect is not apparent, filament stock falls somewhat, but and 8, tired September the inventory photograph that rise is compared, this also is an utterly inadequate method in dealing with a severe situation only.
Factory of polyester of predicting later period will depreciate further go inventory, early days depreciates cause dish of side gain for a time deficit, but because PTA steeps fall continuously last week, the profit of polyester restores somewhat, again the space can depreciate go inventory.
The only reason that can prop up PTA has cost only
PTA falls now, dish face treatment value is poor already from highest 2000 yuan / ton + fall 600 yuan of present / or so tons, to the manufacturing company of a lot of PTA, basically leave manufacturing cost not far, want PX price not to appear only considerably coast, the price with current PTA still has prop up. And at present Brent oil price already fall after a rise arrives 60 dollars / bucket less than, the space that continues to drop is not large, the has PX only profit that can reduce so.
Our country PX is produced can have 13.99 million tons only / year, crop was 10 million tons 2017, import 14.43 million tons, the entrance is depended on degree 60% , many entrance PX brings about its price to be resided all the time do not fall high, and like that the circumstance begins to produce a turn from next year.
According to the data of dispatch of 100 travelling expenses, chinese PX was produced 2019 can will increase 11.3 million tons / year, chinese PX was produced 2020 can will increase 13.8 million tons / year, because this begins the supply of PX to will produce tremendous change from next year, after also realizing autarky with PTA when PX, certainly will is a fight closely of the market, the price also immediately and fall, prospective PX profit is reduced, conduct the price to PTA to follow jointly with the pace necessarily drop.
Accordingly, short-term in light of, because cost props up PTA price to drop the space is not large, as depreciate downstream go inventory, PTA and polyester price slowly look forward to is firm, but after the PX unit go into operation as next year home, the setting that is Qi Jiang of PX, PTA then.