Shandong survey circumstance is summarized
Since the four seasons is spent, methanol price accompanies slump in price of crude of MTO plant stop production, international, winter to be restricted to produce anticipate not as good as wait for a series of benefit sky messages, nod 3525 yuan high oneself / ton drop Zhou Wu night dish 2408 yuan of closing quotation / ton, drop more than 30% , and puncture position of the low inside year. Include futures investor and trafficker of merchandise on hand to be spent to this attention taller, the hope is produced currently to methanol and the actual condition of demand situation undertakes dogging, hold somewhat to the newest drive element of futures of the end of the year and spot price at the same time, be opposite at the same time pattern of methanol market supply and demand and market anticipated 2019 refer.
Methanol market value went since second half of the year 2018 situation
For this, we follow business of methanol trafficker, production, downstream manufacturer and futures investor, below futures daily and organization of Zheng business institute, way heart city - bank city - east battalion - Jinan - Wei lane - Zi rich, visited Shandong business of business of production of much home methanol, trafficker, investment and enterprise of representative ground temper with fire.
Course of Shandong area survey is arranged
The main verdict that survey wins includes:
1.Current oil price drops quickly exceed majority to produce business to anticipate, go to short-term oil price situation still puzzle (end on November 23) , but think generally to be based on pressure of reduction of output, the wave motion that next year oil price will present position of on the high side goes situation.
2.Methanol is current demand slants weak, downstream PP price goes weak, weather turns below cold circumstance, MTO device is short-term answer produce odds inferior. And glide as a result of oil price, oily agency of downstream finished product and terminal inventory present wait-and-see attitude, MTBE (basically use at benzine to add) demand considerably under anticipate. Be restricted to produce this year think generally under anticipate, gas the sources of energy supplies intense rate to alleviate, demand of alcohol radical fuel or relatively dropped last year 1/3 control to the half, if go the fastigium prices of annual bottom or difficult appear. And Linyi many formaldehyde device is turned to Leng Ying rings or will jockey by weather. But we think, anticipate in exceeding pessimism with downstream small stock the circumstance falls, current methanol price relatively cost line is only 200 yuan / ton the excessive price of less than, consider to the change still did not produce inside metaphase of structure of methanol supply and demand, still maintain trends to slant namely tight situation, from 1000 yuan / ton gain level is hit near cost line, from industrial catenary profit allocation angle looks or be hard to last.
3.From investment trade angle looks, in January complete a business transaction of agreement drawing near, trade cost is increased, the lack before much head operates drive, and stop caustic sheet distributings concentrated, nominal of current Gao Chicang has choose machine to decrease a storehouse drive, in dimension of international oil price firm hypothesis falls, or will cause the near future is little to rebound likelihood. Agreement still saw small to small in September premium in May, and follow-up and downstream demand accompanies MTO device answer is produced, hopeful of industrial chain profit restores stage by stage, perplex at present the core contradiction of agreement turned to be mixed for macroscopical to next year whole demand in May can change taste whole to trade of the mood anxious.
Specific investigation report is as follows:
Enterprise of ground temper with fire enters merchandise on hand of date of departure generally to manage,
Go to oil price situation still feel confused
Shandong regards ground temper with fire as big province, time of development of ground temper with fire and dimensions all lie in the whole nation bibcock position. From us the company of temper with fire of much home land of survey looks, period show union to trade with set period protect a value to use rate taller. Enterprise of partial ground temper with fire is begun the earliest from Singapore crude option market set period protect a value to trade, establish special futures section earlier, deploy trade with researcher, participate in those who include methanol inside extensively of a variety of futures breed trade, but participate in to futures of domestic crude oil degree relatively general. From risk management the measure looks, proprietor of an enterprise of local ground temper with fire should have 3 kinds of kind: It is the stable collaboration that swims through company and fluctuation, iron from angle of industrial chain profit make the same score periodic price wave motion. 2 be carry market of pair of international crude markets and oil of downstream finished product dog and study, undertake to crude price valence trades nodding, to developing venture of market wave motion. 3 it is to pass complete member set protect, complete product covers the concept that defend, undertake coefficient addition to of all kinds product and raw material, realize risk neutral then. The uses degree, equipment futures department personnel maturity to futures is ordinal increase by degrees, and the futures of civilian look forward to is covered protect consciousness general strong at the state-owend enterprise.
Means of avoid of risk of price of company of Shandong ground temper with fire
And go up to the view of prospective oil price, company of ground temper with fire goes to price of short-term crude price situation is relatively confused, whether can be further collapse faced after dropping considerably to international crude price especially dish problem. But go to metaphase price on situation, enterprise of partial ground temper with fire thinks the petroliferous country such as Russia or have tendency of reduction of output, accompany the balance of structure of supply and demand, crude price 2019 or hasten is firm, circumstance of put into production of shale oil of wait-and-see 2020 United States. At the same time finished product oil tightens up what also will cause case of oil price of market finished product first quarter in next year regularly to rise.
Methanol requirement still slants weak,
Malformation of of short duration arrives restore evidence
To methanol demand side, from us the manufacturer of survey and investor look, still appear to requirement of near future methanol slant pessimistic attitude. On the whole, although domestic methanol market is not the direct fluctuation of crude oil to swim, but market of natural gas of methanol upper reaches and entrance methanol market all have stronger dependency to international crude price, and methanol is downstream MTBE demand is immediate related to gas price (benzine is added) , methanol makes alkene demand get downstream PP price, be affected further by international crude price, partial investor thinks methanol is occupied with part of crude oil link up with downstream than amounting to 75% . Consider at the same time can change article trade the sex of an organic whole of the mood, methanol futures can be regarded as the sentiment index that home trades, will look with history of crude price dependency in 80% above.
Downstream demand takes methyl alcohol than
Methanol makes alkene device and natural gas / existence of shaly gas unit replaces a gender
Domestic methanol price and original fat price go situation have stronger dependency
Specific in light of, formaldehyde respect, formaldehyde price price accompanies methanol price to go weak, partial manufacturer feedback turns as a result of weather cold, downstream viscose slow down in demand, include Linyi inside many formaldehyde device faces shutdown pressure, or cause certain impact to Shandong methanol enterprise. Methanol fuel respect, because environmental protection is restricted to produce plan and pressure this year relatively slanted last year become loose, and the existence that has coal is enraged fully ahead of schedule, sexual price compares on the low side and the methanol fuel that has the pressure that bring watch add period or relatively dropped last year more, go to three for the half last year only. MTBE respect, because case of oil price of domestic finished product accompanies crude price to drop, and downstream terminal presents wait-and-see attitude, benzine adds MTBE demand to drop somewhat, this also is the influencing factor of methanol requirement limit with the mainest near future that survey group reflects. And the MTO device of stop production, although be dropped considerably by methanol price,affect, PP-3MA profit returns level of 1000 yuan of above afresh, but because weather turns cold, downstream demand is depressed influence, pressure of short-term and new go into operation is greater, or difficult to short-term methanol agreement generation was propped up in January.
Domestic formaldehyde price accompanies methanol price to go weak
PP-3MA profit restores somewhat
And from methanol market because always looks,disturb, partial methanol trafficker is right methanol freight presented upbeat mood in December, think to be turned by weather cold overhaul an influence with road, northwest - hopeful of Shandong methanol freight from 200 yuan / ton rise 300 yuan / ton and even higher level, or will prop up certainly to methanol price generation. Methanol storage respect, at present stock of haven, firm all is in position of centre on the high side, northwest manufacturer drops because of the price, shipment mood fall after a rise, present manner of cherish carry out, factory library is accumulated somewhat. But downstream manufacturer drops because of the price show wait-and-see attitude, inventory is in relatively inferior level, once rebound or become stretch factor. Import side, near future of Iranian methanol quote passes scent to show 300 dollars for many times / ton the following circumstance, mood of mellow to Hua Dongjia quote comes into being certain impact, but methanol entrance trafficker thinks to quote hearsay reliability on the low side, and Iranian methanol entrance still is faced with scarcely determinism, still need quote of wait-and-see home market and profit to go situation.
Concussion of perch of methanol haven inventory
Poor wave motion of methanol entrance price is bigger
Look into: Short-term slant to lose or be put rebound, metaphase pays close attention to industrial profit
The information that combinative survey gets and methanol dish in light of face wave motion, we think to methanol market point of view, short-term methanol market will still appear slant to move infirmly, but stop in oil price drop to fall suppose, methanol market oneself disturbs element and hold a storehouse to change or cause rebound opportunity. Stability bandwidth of metaphase methanol market or will drop, unilateral strategy or will transfer to the strategy covering interest that is based on industrial profit.
Short-term in light of, methanol market is fallen defeat considerably by international crude market, with can change taste integral demand to slant pessimism influence, will still appear slant to go infirmly situation, but considering industrial profit, 2200-2300 yuan / ton cost of center of area of Shandong, Hua Dong, be down a space to suffer be restricted, agreement manipulator will be finite in January. But maintain a warehouse considering current short seller taller, complete a business transaction of agreement drawing near or existence decreased a storehouse to appeal to in January beg. And winter is restricted to produce it is important to will still be become with methanol freight disturb element, case of follow-up again original oil price stops drop below the circumstance, methanol market or existence trade the gender rebounds opportunity, but be based on integral demand to slant weak structure, rebound extent or finite, proposal still with wait-and-see give priority to.
In light of metaphase, look into 2019, anticipate to the pessimism of macroscopical economy will still become a worry methanol market and even whole can change the core element that tastes market price case. Considering anticipate to the pessimism of macroscopical economy currently relatively the beginning of the year is relatively consistent 2018, and include winter to be restricted to produce, the sensitivity that demand of alcohol radical fuel anticipates is reduced, quantity of quantity of total demand, supply increases the presence that waits for an element, stability bandwidth of prospective methanol market or relatively 2017-2018 year drop somewhat. From the point of operation strategy, be based on more pessimistic whole demand and still slant the contradiction of situation of tight supply and demand, we think, scope of strategy of unilateral of prospective methanol market is limited, and sexual price is compared drop somewhat, but the strategy covering interest that is based on industrial chain profit or existence opportunity. Downstream olefin market faces demand uncertainty taller, and new increase production can pressure exists, PP-3MA price is differred or will slant to move infirmly continuously, promoting especially promote with Fu Dezhuang buy answer is produced, anticipate after adjusting. And upriver methanol market still slants because of pattern of oneself supply and demand close, from before 500-1000 yuan / ton profit abruptly fall after a rise arrives near cost line, and continuously hard the pressure of gain also finite, metaphase looks, make much methanol profit (+ MA-TC) politic or it is certain to will be had in metaphase operation value.