27 days, the explore below 1901 contract minimum reachs methanol futures brunt 2360 yuan / ton, achieve a year many new low. Analytic personage thinks, oil price drops, supply and demand two it is the inducement that methanol walks along low considerably infirmly, short-term inside the price goes situation see crude oil even whether look forward to is firm, predict difficult change of weak force of short duration.
Methanol of 3 elements be a burden on period price
From October since the middle ten days of a month, brunt of domestic methanol futures 1901 agreement period price from 3300 yuan / ton a gleam of goes low quickly, accumulative total drops since October 15 had exceeded 27% .
"Bring about methanol to walk along low backside to have tripartite face reason considerably, it is oil price drops considerably; 2 it is rate of alkene company go into operation goes low, methanol requirement acute is collected to decrease outside bringing about; 3 it is methanol manufacturing company profit is passable, supply pressure to still be put. " Chen Dong of analyst of treasure city futures expresses.
Since October, can change callback of deepness of price of commodity bibcock crude, be a burden on moves below the price centre of gravity that chemical industry tastes downstream. Data of finance and economics shows Wen Hua, beautiful oil since October 3 concussion callback, drop amount to 31.21% . At the same time coal price also appears fall after a rise, coal of article China finance and economics board piece came on October 17 on November 27, accumulative total drops 13.13% .
"Although our country methanol basically machines craft to be made for coal, a few natural gas and anxious furnace are angry, but range of callback of domestic coal price is more distinct also during this, this causes cost string next moving, those who lose pair of values prop up. " Chen Dong says.
According to statistic, go into operation of trade of olefin of downstream and burgeoning consumption leads methanol to be behaved in second half of the year not beautiful, maintain all the time in 67% around, relatively the corresponding period glided last year 13% , and November is to drop to more 63% the left and right sides. Besides burgeoning consumption trade demand is exhausted outside losing, traditional spending domain also nots allow hopeful. November, the main and downstream traditional start working that increase advantageous position is in methanol 50% around, relatively glided October 5 percent; Compare the monthly of the corresponding period dropped last year enlarged 3 percent.
"Because the four seasons spends profit of domestic olefin industry to worsen, especially outside collect methanol to make alkene profit be in deficit condition for a long time, below the setting that glides in finished product price, rate of alkene company go into operation goes low, methanol requirement acute is collected to decrease outside bringing about. " Chen Dong analysis says.
Prices still sees crude oil look
"Methanol is basic face still exhausted weak, cost of company of attention of lower part need is propped up and attention crude price goes situation, this can affect the financial attribute of methanol futures in very old rate, control the much emptier mood of the market. On the whole, period price maintains later period methanol slant the probability of weak attitude still bigger. " Chen Dong says.
Liu Yuan expresses analyst of China peaceful futures, methanol is supplied still superfluous and apparent, below the circumstance that short-term crude falls greatly ceaselessly, bull is relatively passive, medium-term is logistic may by tired library logic to switch of logic of complete a business transaction.
Letter futures thinks in, price of near future methanol is differred and the pressure of main area alleviates somewhat, and inventory has last week bigger drop, and profit also is transferred apparently from upper reaches to downstream, because this methanol itself is basic the pressure of the face is not great, if last,be crude oil only weak force does not change, will mix from attribute of the sources of energy alkene paragraph conduct a pressure, short-term prices basically is oil price whether look forward to is firm and the reaction propping up that cost carries; In light of metaphase, north of the middle ten days of a month already began heating in November, gas head methanol already entered overhaul cycle in succession, just did not get what reacts below weak force prices, but as these elements release stage by stage, end of merchandise on hand may arrive stage by stage reaction, affect dish of range then.