INE crude oil is long-term the trend did not change Asian de

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Zhou Er (on November 27) night dish INE crude oil is low leave to go high, although subsequently because of beautiful couplet store amount to in vice-chairman carat slant accipitral speech makes for a time INE crude falls go going up for the most part, but subsequently refresh is nodded high in a few days, allusive INE crude oil walks along the become divided of situation.

Look from long-term trend nevertheless, 3 old crude oil are fiducial in still be in the course that builds a base, but short time drops finite, because the market is quiet,await the OPEC conference decision about reduction of output, before this, the market still apt is wait-and-see.

Come as winter demand height nevertheless, oil price or obtain prop up.

Trade overview

Shanghai crude price drops. Brunt agreement SC1901, with 418.1 yuan / bucket closing quotation, drop 2.9 yuan, drop for 0.69% . Total contract clinchs a deal 481378 hands, the quantity that maintain a warehouse reduces 4776 hands to come 61792 hands. Brunt agreement clinchs a deal 467772 hands, the quantity that maintain a warehouse reduces 4076 hands to come 37270 hands.

Futures contract and become friendship condition general view

Current brunt contract is SC1901 agreement, decrease in a few days hold 4076 hands. SC1901 clinchs a deal now the quantity is opposite bigger, but need notices appearance of crude oil of near future INE relatively two oil walk along Yumeibu situation existence is worn lag sex, because of Beijing time 15:00 to 21:00INE crude oil is in cease the condition of city, beautiful cloth of this paragraph of time two oil trade normally, and extent of near future wave motion is opposite bigger, because of night of this INE crude oil dish often need after open quotation to resting the market information during city undertakes digestive, because visit affection takes power lag sex apparent.

Because this near future suggests not to want pure basis beautiful cloth,two oil go situation the trend that will drive INE crude oil, the possibility that INE near future walks out of independent prices is very large.

But from go for a long time situation look, 3 old crude oil walk along situation otherness fiducially not quite, from near future key node considers, at present the key of INE crude oil is propped up is 400 yuan, beautiful crude oil is 50 dollars, bulunte crude oil for a time fall 60 dollars, had called in at present and checking this a little bit further prop up, once get affirming, predict 3 old crude oil are fiducial all can appear of certain level rebound.

From this piece the graph looks more apparent, in breed of each crude oil, close besides INE crude oil drop, the others all appeared of different level go up, before including this, drop drop endlessly benzine also appeared to even more of 3% go up.

But above paragraphs of no less than mentions, current INE crude oil goes situation have lag sex, may walk out of independent prices, accordingly this cannot be handed in on behalf of short-term INE crude oil cast active. In fact, go up drop stop board the setting restricted INE to drop on certain level situation, this makes INE crude oil and beautiful cloth two oily occurrence difference.

From period in light of present price poor angle, beautiful cloth of two oil period present price difference is negative, and base difference goes weak further, according to base the principle that difference trades, set protect expire gain profit, because of this short time beautiful cloth two oily existence meet low do much space.

But INE crude oil appears base difference is going strong, do not suggest before this kind of evidence disappears much sheet enters the arena at least, short time still is put in reduced space.

At the same time at present of SC1903 agreement trade vivid jerk and clinch a deal the quantity exceeds SC1902 agreement apparently, and this kind of trend has persistent sign, think to be able to consider to meet currently a few much sheet of low average SC1903, later period has bigger the possibility that rise.

Now of INE crude oil increase advantageous position average price is 420.5 yuan / bucket, than before one trade day drops 1.6 yuan.

Hold a storehouse to clinch a deal than

From hold a storehouse to look into double ratio, the evidence of passivation of INE crude oil still did not get ameliorative, mean the market still apt is wait-and-see, of message of short time need drive further.

Gold is oily than

Compare point of view from golden oil, at present golden oil is in than be being maintained about 23 the left and right sides.

From near future gold and crude oil go situation look, the price of gold has begun look forward to it seems that firm, and maintain be in 1220 dollars upper part. Couplet is in the beauty store gradually below the circumstance of constrictive cycle, of the dollar avoid danger attribute will be changed infirmly further, this may give gold more rebounding opportunity.

Because this thinks golden oil has the possibility that expands further than returning, below this kind of circumstance the proposal makes much gold, make empty crude oil, come than amending till golden oil 30 to 35, of predicting crude oil this drops situation just adjust reach the designated position, oil price ability greets sole rebound truly. Of short line oil price going tall to be able to be inspected only is to rebound the one part of situation.

Main area: Asian demand appears pick up oil price of evidence or limitation drops

The crude oil that China imported from Russia in October 1.73 million pails / day, record-breaking exalted, increase compared to the same period 58% . China measured 1.12 million pails from crude oil of sand spy entrance in October / day, increase compared to the same period 3.4% . China imported crude oil from Iran in October two hundred and forty-seven thousand one hundred and sixty pails / day, decrease compared to the same period 64% .

Analyst of China peaceful futures thinks custom announces number of feed inlet to occupy detail afresh, confirm China filled ahead of schedule to answer Iranian punish place November inventory searchs the strategy that replaces oil to plant, and China also reduced import of Iranian crude oil considerably really, custom announces number of feed inlet to occupy afresh, advantageous also the regulation that proves to the United States China abided by Iranian oil to import exempt forehead to spend, predict to began China to will restore Iranian oil to import stage by stage in November to 30-40 10 thousand pails / day.

Collect a net to think, although the market worries about exempt of punish of Iranian crude oil to may cause crude oil excess supply, below the background that puts delay in economy of current whole world especially, may of aggravate crude oil drop situation. But the crude oil demand of China that imports data to allude an Asia not slow down, have the sign that picks up further instead.

Japan gives light to promote produce company limited president to express now, the hope is inside exempt period, finish what be the same as crude oil of the Iran inside the quantity to closing to buy. Analytic personage expresses, japan to Iranian crude oil buy may last to April, ability can be tightened up afresh later. short time, import demand of the Asia still has the space that rise, this or drive oil price to appear rebound.

In addition, as punish of next year United States carry out truly, will aggravate market supplies in short supply state, what drive oil price then is farther rebound.

Collect a net to think, the space that oil price drops is already opposite and limited, it is OK that this rebounds from price of near future gas see. As a result of each refinery business is driven before American punish Iran to enlarge crude oil to buy before this, bring about seasonal slow down in demand, bring about gas price to drop then broken cost price.

Rebound somewhat as price of near future gas nevertheless, at the same time winter demand height also begins gradually pull change crude oil requirement, because space of this petrolic profit begins to rise, refinery business or consideration are in current oil price expands below relatively inferior circumstance buy, because this drives near future crude oil,the import rises.