Cost support, double silicon, bargain-hunting

  • Jan, 26th 2019

Core view

. Abstract: The output remains high, but the new capacity is released or delayed; the price of electricity and raw materials is still strong, and the double silicon is near the cost line, and the expected downside is limited; [123 ]

The year is approaching, manufacturers and traders are shipping at reduced prices for the return of funds.

. Operation strategy: SF1905 contract proposal considers the 5700 first-line light warehouse layout more than single, the bottom stop loss is set around 5600; SM1905 contract proposes to consider the 7200 first-line light warehouse layout more than single, the bottom stop position Near 7000.

. Uncertain risk: limited production of steel during winter storage and heating

Details

I. Market review

Last week, double silicon rose The price was mixed. As of January 11th, the closing price of the main iron and steel 1905 contract was 5,916 yuan / ton, up 148 yuan / ton from the previous weekend; the price of manganese silicon 1905 contract was 7,338 yuan / ton, down from the previous weekend. 44 yuan / ton.

Second, price influencing factors analysis

1, macro data / events [123

Overseas Economy: The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the meeting, and Trump insisted on building a wall. The minutes of the Fed’s 18-year December meeting, released last Tuesday, showed that Fed officials showed a certain dovish tendency. Last Wednesday, US President Trump and Democratic leaders’ talks on building the border wall ended in failure, and the federal government closed its history. The minutes of the December 18th meeting released by the European Central Bank on Thursday showed that the expected time to raise key interest rates has been postponed until the end of 2019.

Domestic economy: demand is falling and production is stable. In the first half of January 19, 41 city real estate sales growth rate of -12%. In December 18, the passenger car sales growth rate of the Association was -19.2%, and the decline was once again expanded. In the first week of January 19, the passenger car sales volume of the Association was -17%, which remained at a low level. The two important needs of real estate vehicles are still in the doldrums. In December 18, the growth rate of crude steel output of key steel enterprises slowed down gradually, and the growth rate in the next half was zero, but the growth rate of full-month production in December remainedAt 8.1%, it has increased from November. In the first half of January 19, the growth rate of coal consumption by the six major groups was 5.6%. However, under the lunar calendar, the coal consumption for power generation in the fourth week before the Spring Festival fell slightly to 3.9%, indicating that industrial production was only stable in the short term.

Price: The risk of deflation is not far. Last week, food prices rose, with prices of vegetables and aquatic products rising, and pig prices falling. It is expected that CPI food prices will rise by 2.8% in January, and CPI rose slightly to 2.1% in January. Since January, international oil prices have rebounded, but domestic steel prices and coal prices are still falling. It is predicted that the PPI will fall by 0.4% in January, and the PPI in January will fall to 0.2%. In December 18, the PPI dropped sharply to 0.9%.