Coal char monthly report: subject to cost support, pay atten

  • Jan, 11th 2019

(1) The price of the main producing area has risen unsuccessfully, and the price has fallen:

There is a feeling of price at the beginning of the month, but with the increase in steel mill maintenance, the demand for coke has dropped, and the purchase price of coke at the end of the month has been lowered by 100.

(2) Coke stocks began to rise:

Coke demand fell, and the inventory of the factory and steel mills increased.

Some coke enterprises transferred stocks to the port.

(3) Steel plant replenishment situation slowed down:

Prices still fell, and some steel mills in East China continued to control coke arrivals.

(4) Summary of next month's drive events

Coke: Expected to fall by RMB 100-200/ton, mainly based on cost support:

Steel mill winter The storage policy is temporarily unclear, and the balance between supply and demand is broken, and coke prices will still face falling space;

It is expected that the profit of Shanxi coke will be zero or even negative in the middle, and the market has cost support, so the spot decline may still be 100-200 yuan / ton.

The upstream coal price has a relatively small decline.

2

Strategy and Suggestions

(1) Coke summary

Coke down space may be constrained by cost support around mid-term, and spot decline is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the demand for steel winter storage, if the winter storage is less than expected, the space for coke will fall.

(2) Unilateral

(3)1-5 spread [123 ]

(4) Coking profit and steel mill profit

3

basis and spread

(1) basis

(2) Spread

The port price continued to decline, the trader's profit turned negative again, the trader had no stocking mood, and the venue was still limited.

4

Monthly coke supply and demand

[ 123] Steel mills' profits have shrunk and they have been actively suppressing coking profits, but they are still above the break-even line. It is expected that the short-term focus enterprises will have less positive impact.

The environmental pressure on the coke market has increased, and environmental protection in North China The production of limited production increased, and the coke supply in the Xuzhou area was running, and the coke supply fell.

At the same time, the operating rate of downstream steel mills has also declined due to limited production, and the demand reduction has been relatively more. The overall supply and demand structure of coke has been broken.

[123 ]

Remarks: According to the current limited production documents, if the implementation is insufficient, coke supply and demand may return to a small surplus.

[123 ]

The export profit of coke has rebounded theoretically this month, but in reality,The spot fell faster, there was an offer in the market and there was a lack of transactions. The trading volume of Shandong Port, such as Rizhao Port, fell sharply. The actual negotiation was less and the price was too high.

In December, Rizhao Port collected 900,000 tons of Hong Kong and loaded 570,000 tons of ships, including 470,000 tons of domestic trade and 100,000 tons of foreign trade. The inventory in December increased by 330,000 tons. In 2018, Rizhao Port has a total shipment of 10 million tons.

In December, Dongjiakou Port collected 680,000 tons of Hong Kong and loaded 500,000 tons of ships, including 120,000 tons of domestic trade and 380,000 tons of foreign trade. The inventory in December increased by 180,000 tons. In 2018, Dongjiakou Port shipped a total of 6.21 million tons.

Coking coal 1

coking coal market review and outlook

(1) Coal coke market review

The price began to loosen, and the resources with more premiums in the previous period fell more obviously.

Coal-enterprise stocks began to accumulate, and the growth of downstream users' stocks slowed down noticeably.

Downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined, but there is still support for low-sulfur and high-strength resource demand.

In December, the import of coal through customs was affected by the policy, the number is limited, and the market basically belongs to the state of pricelessness.

(2) Prospect of coking coal market

Due to the influence of the Spring Festival in January, the supply of coal enterprises is unlikely to be further released compared with December.

Downstream purchases As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage is over, and the demand is unlikely to increase.

As the inventory continues to accumulate, the range of price cuts in January will be further expanded.

2

Monthly coal supply and demand

(1) Monthly coking coal supply and demand

[ 123]

From the monthly data, the supply increment in November hasThe limit of imported coal is the most obvious.

[123 ]

3

basis difference [ 123]

4

Strategy and Suggestions

(1)5- 9 price difference

has logical support, but the current spread has been expanded, and there are more uncertain factors in September, and the current spread is still insufficient to expand.

(2) Coking profit

The recent coal-to-coke ratio has continued to shrink, but considering the fundamentals, there is still the expectation of continued contraction. (3) Strategy and recommendations