Important Information and Opinion Strategy
(1)News Information Shenhua’s annual long-term price of 553 in January 2019 is 582 for the monthly long-term agreement and 512 for the 5000-kcal.
China's official manufacturing PMI 49.4 in December, expected 50, the previous value of 50. China's official non-manufacturing PMI of 53.8 in December was expected to be 53.2, with a previous value of 53.4. China's official comprehensive PMI 52.6 in December, the previous value of 52.8. China's December financial new manufacturing PMI 49.7, the first time since May 2017, fell below the line of glory, expected 50.2, the previous value of 50.2.
[This week's open market total expired reverse repurchase 580 billion yuan] According to statistics, this week (December 31 to January 6) the open market totaled 580 billion yuan reverse repurchase due, No other funds have expired. Among them, Tuesday (January 1) to Saturday, respectively, reverse repurchase of 70 billion yuan, 40 billion yuan, 150 billion yuan, 170 billion yuan and 150 billion yuan. Analysts said that considering that there will be more funds back to the banking system at the beginning of the year, despite the high scale of reverse repurchase this week, the central bank's open market operations are expected to remain calm, and the funding pattern is expected to remain plentiful at the beginning of January. (China Securities Network)
[Hebei: "Capacity Index Trading" to resolve coal excess capacity of nearly 13 million tons] According to the Hebei Provincial Government Service Management Office, in 2018, Hebei solved the excess coal through "capacity index trading" The production capacity is 12.9176 million tons. According to reports, the use of "capacity index trading", 2018 to withdraw coal production capacity of 12.9176 million tons, involving 60 closed coal mines, raising funds of 2.06 billion yuan. It is understood that in the next three years, Hebei Province will continue to unswervingly push forward the production capacity and implement the “432511” project, which will reduce the steel production capacity by 40 million tons, coal 30 million tons, flat glass with 23 million weight boxes and cement 5 million. Tons, coke 10 million tons, thermal power 1.5 million kilowatts. (Xinhua News Agency)
(2) This week's views and strategies
This week, the main contract of thermal coal was weakly oscillating, and the first half of the week fell back to a new low, and the resistance in the second half of the week rebounded. At present, the price difference is relatively large, the overall situation is still weak, and the rebound is weak.. Fundamentally, the main producing coal price trend is different, the overall weak and stable operation, prices in some regions continue to decline, sales are still not good, the port quotation continues to fall after the steadily rebound, the six major electricity in the cold air The daily consumption is about 800,000 tons, the coal consumption is increased compared with the previous period, the terminal receiving situation has improved, the port sentiment has improved slightly, but the overall demand is still weak before the Spring Festival, and the daily consumption has no bright spots; At present, the power plant is mainly destocked, and the six major electricity stocks have fallen back below 15 million tons, but they are still at a relatively high level. The imported coal from the power plant has been cleared normally. The supply and demand pattern is generally loose, and the downward pressure on prices is still there. The overall maintenance of the high-altitude strategy on the board, control the position. In the news, Shenhua's price in January 2019 was 582, down 49 yuan. China's manufacturing PMI fell below the line of glory in December, and the downward pressure on the economy increased.
(3) Summary of key transaction data
Price trend and spread analysis
(1)Spot price[123 ]The price of pits continued to decline this week. Specifically, the southern suburbs of Datong continued to fall by 4 yuan, and the price of Shaanxi Yulin and Inner Mongolia Erdos The 5 yuan drop, the coal price of the place is still under pressure; the port price point of view, this week, the port price first suppressed and then rose, the first half of the week continued to fall, the second half of the week to maintain a small rebound, Saturday CCI5500 price 582, down 11 yuan from last week The price of CCI5000 was 504, a decrease of 8 yuan from the previous month, and the decline narrowed. The price of CCI imported 5500 dropped sharply this week. The price on Saturday was 549.1, down 24 yuan from last week. (2) Dynamic coal basis trend (3) Cross-month spread trend
(4) Spread analysis
This week's goods are still in stock, the 01 contract follows the spot and continues to go down, the basis is different Increase, while the far-month contract is resistant, there is a small rebound, the basis continues to narrow. 01 contract Friday basis is 3.8 yuan / ton, an increase of 2 yuan / ton from last week; 03 contract Friday basis is 5.8 yuan / ton, a decrease of 17.6 yuan / ton from last week, 05 contract basis is 17.4 yuan / ton, compared Weeks decreased by 14.6 yuan / ton, both lower than the same period last year, the basis of the change in the basis of each contract alternatives. On the cross-month spread, the 01 contract fell sharply. The 01-05 spread was down 16.6 yuan to 13.6 yuan last week. The 03-05 spread was 11.6 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from the previous month.
Advantages of imported coal
This week, the advantages of imported coal first decrease and then increase, domestic sea freight changes Not much, the domestic trade coal price fell sharply after the decline, while the price of imported coal fell back. This week, CCI imported 5,500 tax-included price was 549.1 yuan on December 29, down 24 yuan from last week. At present, the imported coal from the power plant has been cleared normally.
Northern Port Supply and Demand
(1) Northern Port Dispatching[ 123] (2) Port inventory
(3) Port situation
This week, the northern four port transfer The output has been reduced. The average daily import volume of the four ports is 1,352,400 tons, which is a decrease of 31,600 tons from last week, which is 6.87% lower than the annual average. The total daily average of the four ports is 1,046,600 tons, which is lower than last week. 4.74 million tons, slightly lower than the annual average level, the overall low-intensity into the transfer situation. In the case that the overall volume of the four ports was higher than the transfer volume this week, the inventory continued to decline. The total inventory of the four ports on Saturday was 14.87 million tons (Note: Huanghua Port data ended on December 27), a decrease of 438,000 from last week. Tons, but still 6.45% higher than the annual average, above the average for the same period. In terms of ports, except for the increase of 380,000 tons of stocks in Huanghua Port, other ports showed a downward trend. According to the port of Hanoi, the inventory in this week was 12.057 million tons, which was 550,000 tons lower than the previous period.Under the trend of the market, the amount of goods arriving in Hanoi decreased, and the terminal purchased a small amount of transactions. 5Power supply and demand (1)Key power plants(2) Six major power plants (3) Analysis of power supply and demand Average daily consumption of power plants this Saturday 761,900 tons, a slight increase, up 1.98% year-on-year, this week's inventory average fell below 16 million tons, but still maintained a high level, up 54.71%. In the later period, the temperature in the south will gradually rise, and the daily consumption will not be bright. The power plant will still be mainly destocking, and the release of procurement enthusiasm is limited. In 2018, the average daily consumption of the six major electric power is 654,400 tons, an increase of 0.81 million tons from the previous year's average. The year-round performance is characterized by “not weak in the off-season and not prosperous in the peak season”. (4) Daily consumption forecast of power plants The annual growth rate of key power plants in November was slightly slowed down, and the growth rate of the six major power plants was year-on-year. There has been an increase, but it is still below -10%. The average daily consumption of power plants in November is less than expected. The red number in the table is the predicted value for the situation in December this year. From the perspective of key power plants, the estimated daily consumption in December this year is About 4,482.9 thousand tons, as of December 24, Japan's monthly average coal consumption of 4.5 million tons; six major power plants, the forecast of daily consumption in December this year is about 674,700 tons, as of the end of this month, the six major electricity consumption is 70,100,000. Tons were slightly higher than expected. 6 Hydropower substitution effect (1) Three Gorges flow trend (2) Hydropower Substitute effect The average daily flow of the Three Gorges outflows this week was 5876.25 cubic meters per second, a decrease of 8.41% from the previous week and a decrease of 1.49% from the same period last year, lower than the average of the same period, according to 31,000 cubic meters. Meter/second full flow calculation, full rate 18.96%; the average daily water level difference of the Three Gorges is 109.62 meters, and the overall hydropower substitution effect does not change much. In 2018, the average daily flow of the Three Gorges outflows reached 1,361.23 cubic meters per second, an increase of 9.88% year-on-year, and the hydropower output continued to grow. 7 Maritime status (1) Number of port ships
[123 ] (2) comprehensive trend of sea freight
(3) transportation situation
this week, the terminal terminal receiving goods slightly improved, the pallet has Released, the number of ships arriving in the northern ports increased significantly. The number of ships anchored in the port decreased except for Qinhuangdao. Other ports did not change much. The number of ships anchored in the four ports on the North Saturday was 91. (The port of Huanghua Port is until December 27 ), the number of ships decreased by 14 from last week; the number of ships arriving at three ports on Saturday was 41, an increase of 24 from last week. In terms of freight rates, the sea freight rate fluctuated slightly this week, with little change. The CBCFI index on Friday was 741.2, a decrease of 1.3 points from the previous week. Other domestic routes fluctuated within a narrow range.
(1) Analysis of the main positions
This week's thermal coal 05 contract Masukura 37,000 hands The price fell first and then rose. The closing price on Friday increased by 0.6 points from last week. The change is not big. From the perspective of position concentration, the positions of both long and short positions in this week are further concentrated. The current concentration of long positions is slightly higher than the short position; In terms of the concentration of Masukura, the number of empty orders increased this week, but the short positions were more concentrated. The top 10 empty orders increased by 27.84%. (2) Position analysis