Answer amplitude modulation unexpected
When National Day of turn one's head returns, SC of futures of domestic crude oil attacks continuously 600 yuan of col, that can think of without the person momently only the time oil price of a month can steep fall 100 yuan, direct puncture 500 yuan of col.
Oil price is adjusted in the begining public figure of many crude oil industry thinks callback space feels range is narrow, visible person has visual blind area not just, spend in the attention to market information on agree to existing serious blind area, punish of excessive attention Iran supply upright worry factor, desalt or oversight crude oil supplies end the many interest that lose increase production of crude going abroad are empty element, until successive of inventory of the 3rd week of crude oil exceed anticipating growth market just begins to realize crude oil supplies end is not shortage probably what add a bit however is too much, a few weeks of lasting benefit sky are subsequently big the area comes over, inside Qi Chuangnian of crop of the United States, Russia, sand spy new tall, crop adds other output country apparent, iranian punish is compared finally again as a result anticipate strength is small, again overlay lasts super- anticipate tired library, puncture of final oil price prop up another times, returned start of the beginning of the year almost at a heat.
Valence differs a structure to show capital is not valued to the oil price inside year
Through above group the graph can see as the abidance of oil price unilateral drops, the price between market month differs WTI and Bulunte to go weak continuously, contango structure lasts depth progress has continued to 2019 the agreement of second half of the year, the pessimism of the city after this also mirrorred current level capital to be opposite is sentenced beforehand.
Crude oil inventory and hold Cang Chao to expect oil price of tired library bang
So far stock of American crude oil is already consecutive the 6th week of tired library, among them field of supermarket of 5 weeks of tired libraries anticipates, it is Yuan Chao even the market anticipates, this increased capital to supply superfluous worry to crude market greatly, this circumstance author is early at the beginning of October for many times early-warning, clew exceeds anticipate inventory is probable meeting and the large scale callback that other benefit empty factor forms join forces to cause oil price finally.
Inventory of crude oil of first weeks of EIA added the United States in November 5.783 million pails, anticipate add 1.625 million pails, the value adds 3.217 million pails before. So far stock of American crude oil is already consecutive the 6th week of tired library, among them field of supermarket of 5 weeks of tired libraries anticipates, it is Yuan Chao even the market anticipates, this increased capital to supply superfluous worry to crude market greatly, this circumstance author is early at the beginning of October for many times early-warning, clew exceeds anticipate inventory is probable meeting and the large scale callback that other benefit empty factor forms join forces to cause oil price finally.
Supply crop of upright beauty, sanded, Russia neat break is bit faster
It is under the temptation of high oil price, this year 3 old crude oil advocate the yield that produces a country is in desperately increase production, period of the Russia before Russia crude output had been surmounted, reached historical peak value, relatively the beginning of the year increases be close to 500 thousand pails / day. Output of sand spy crude relatively the beginning of the year increases 1 million pails / day, also approximate highest cost. More breathtaking is beautiful fat yield increase quickly, achieve Zhou Du record to reach 11.6 million pails / day, relatively the beginning of the year is cruel added 1.8 million pails / day. Only above 3 big advocate output of crude yield a country assured 3.3 million pails / the increment of the day, and predict growth of demand of global crude oil was 500 thousand pails 2018 / day, apparent about Iranian punish, the motive impeach of American backside just can bring about the opposition of the country of demand of a lot of crude oil such as China, India, European Union.
Finished product oily market
Near future of case of oil price of derv of steam of oily market of data indication finished product is fast fall after a rise, among them benzine of Shandong ground temper with fire quotes relatively fall after a rise of high in October point 1000 yuan, derv fall after a rise 750 yuan, continuously the quoted price of finished product oil of be issued to lower levels makes sale of numerous refine plant very helpless, buy normally go up to be not bought those who drop is downstream buy the home to hold wait-and-see attitude to bring about depreciate the sale is more difficult also, for this refine each other encourage between the factory: Hold out! Calculate according to relevant orgnaization, up to on November 8 closing quotation, rate of crude oil change already fell to - 7.01% , the amplitude modulation below oil price of corresponding finished product is 334 yuan / ton, drop a hopeful achieve again inside year new tall.
Through the splitting decomposition of steam derv poor performance looks, benzine still bends over in low, derv has passivation sign in perch, 2 splitting decompositions differ sequel or regression draws close movement, existence covers profit opportunity between steam derv.
City strategy suggests after
Iranian punish is final with American exempt after the finite strength be born of 8 states district, investor people realized, what crude oil supplies end is cruel add make oily city supply and demand swings to supply exceeds demand thoroughly evenly this one aspect of the matter. Since this also became October, oil price steeps fall, drop so far technical level has had stronger super- drop below demand setting, oil price still has the crucial reason of improvement hard, as a result at oil price can struggle in a few days only since a week briefly rebounds, but centre of gravity dismantles structure of moving extremely weak force again and again however. Current to this market is major of viewpoint lean to one side think oil price will continue to drop. See the author think oil price has turned for a long time from which situation, still have space of be issued to lower levels, but need those who remind investor short period to exceed at the same time sell demand to need to cause vigilance likewise, because the ground fringe politics sudden retaliation sex that cannot charge an element to cause rebounds,prevent prices, continue to chase after want discretion for nothing. Investor can pay close attention to month of poor opportunity and steam derv splitting decomposition to differ what regression brings to cover profit opportunity.