Produce can increase quickly
The near future, polyolefin arranges prices momently in the course later, reemerge to drop quickly prices. Drop to epicycle, we can affirm be is to drop for a long time basically periodic open. Especially PP, price of eye early days still is in the high point that comes nearly 3 years. Produce as home can release considerably and macroscopical economy is low confuse demand to go weak, PP period price still has space of larger be issued to lower levels. To investor, next the opportunity that every time rebounds is intervening sky sheet.
New increase production can be released centrally anticipate Ladaji is poor
The near future, domestic polyolefin market appears a small stock, big base poor and the posture that drops continuously. Anticipate to the pessimism of macroscopical economy and reflect to supplying the pessimism that releases centrally to anticipate was in base among difference, it is by August, PP1, 5 price difference still is in 50 yuan / or so tons, pull continuously subsequently big, end at present, PP1, 5 price difference has risen reach 500 yuan / ton around.
Up to 2017 the end of the year, domestic polypropylene is produced can be 26.42 million tons (contain makings of 4.53 million tons of polypropylene pink to be produced effectively can) , predicted domestic polypropylene new increase production 2018 can 1.35 million tons, produce to the end of the year can will achieve 27.77 million tons, produce can amplitude 5.1% . Predict polypropylene is new 2019 increase production can 5.65 million tons, to 2019 polypropylene of home of the end of the year is produced can will achieve 33.42 million tons, produce can amplitude 20.4% . 2018, new 2019 increase production can will restrict 2.6 million tons of output to was brought 2019. From the point of the whole world, the whole world added polypropylene newly to produce 2019 can 8.53 million tons (contain China 5.65 million tons) , to 2019 polypropylene of whole world of the end of the year is produced can will achieve 94.84 million tons, produce can amplitude is achieved 9.9% . New increase production of foreign this part can put into production will bring 1.49 million tons of yield for the whole world.
Can see from afore-mentioned statistic, 2019 domestic PP market will greet to produce can fast dilate, the yield that is as high as 20% can grow Yuan Chao in recent years produce can add on average fast. And produce can increase quickly will become the dominant factor that next PP drops for a long time.
Plastic product output is added fast drop continuously
Add as domestic economy fast put delay, plastic product output also presents the trend that glides stage by stage. From statistic data can see, begin from June, output of domestic plastic product is added compared to the same period fast had glided 0 the following, present the state of negative growth. Of PP main and downstream, plastic film respect, crop is added compared to the same period fast also appear compared to the same period the posture of be issued to lower levels, also had approached at present 0. This shows, at present the crop of downstream goods sees polyolefin basically very, in whole of current and macroscopical economy not below the atmosphere of beautiful, had offerred to raw material market hard prop up effectively.
According to concerning sectional data, 2018 1, increase rate of output of domestic plastic product was only September 0.3% , appear continuously posture of fall after a rise. From with plastic a few industries closely related look, 1, amplitude of domestic car output was September 0.87% ; Home appliance market is likewise small fan, amplitude of washing machine, freezer is in only in the center 1% , 2% , air conditioning output rises remarkable also fall after a rise; BOPP treatment cost closes considerably narrow, 23 quarters cash flows to be continuously negative.
Additional, sino-US trade friction also produces not little impact to plastic products exit. According to statistic, vest in was added about 1.7 million tons to ask for the China of custom duty to export polyolefin product of the United States 2017, the polyolefin goods that belongs to attachment form exit at the same time predicts to be in 1.3 million tons at least, goods of polyolefin of two aggregate China involves the gross that exports the United States to predict to be as high as 3 million tons, occupy gross of Chinese polyolefin goods about 6% the left and right sides. The goods of follow-up exit United States will be affected by the abidance of the policy that impose tax.
Cost cave in opens space of be issued to lower levels further
The abidance of epicycle polyolefin price drops, cannot leave a setting, it is the collapse that raw material carries, no matter be monomer of crude oil, olefin, methanol, walked out of the prices that a collapse drops in the near future.
Crude oil respect, near future of international oil price presents the state that drops continuously, the United States is in punish Iran while, want to control international oil price to appear to rise quickly, in the meantime, the United States exceeds anticipate inventory increment increases benefit empty effect. Epicycle international oil price from the 77 dollars after National Day holiday / drop near the bucket to 60 dollars / near the bucket. At present crude oil is supplied superfluous, demand puts delay, continuance of international oil price drops situation. Crude price drops to be propped up to polypropylene cost farther abate.
Propylene respect, price of Shandong area propylene continues be issued to lower levels. From the point of supply end, entrance propylene supply of goods increases, produce bigger impact to domestic propylene supply of goods. And from the point of demand end, chloric propane of fourth Xin Chun, acrylic acid and annulus oxygen all has manufacturer to enter overhaul state, market demand decreases. Together with since this month, much weaker force runs downstream product, fourth pure more negative profit moves, market supply is added gradually much and demand glides continuously, propylene price bear pressure reduce and fall have enlarge a trend.
Of raw material price drop quickly, the manufacturing profit of factory letting PP gets bigger improvement. At present coal made PP profit achieve 3800 yuan / ton around, oil makes profit also be in 2000 yuan / ton around. Of near future methanol drop, also had let early days be in the MTO factory make up the deficits and get surpluses of deficit continuously, the part collects the monomer with lower price to have production outside MTO factory, also realized better gain.
The operation is politic
Will look on the whole, polyolefin market already establish long-term coping, especially PP, city will be faced with bigger supply after pressure, in the meantime, the cave in of the atrophy of overlay demand and cost, PP presents a going that drops quickly situation. And at present PP is in the perch that comes 3 years, also let it make the choice with put empty comparison good.
Will look from the operation, as a result of tremendous base difference may let those who present counteractive type drop drop rhythm, to the investor of empty storehouse, can be in 9650 yuan / ton around intervening sky is odd. And the opportunity that long-term sky sheet can pay close attention to PP1905 to go up, better entrance the opportunity is in 9200 yuan / ton a gleam of.