Summary: Fuel oil and crude oil go situation is close together and relevant, the abidance of international oil price issued defeat considerably recently, cost end lasts your fuel takes weak power situation suffer bear pressure, although will look from main area, whole of supply of Singapore fuel market still slants close, but annulus of residual fuel oily stockpile compares near future Singapore to increase somewhat, together with later period flows into grow in quantity as the freight covering interest of Singapore of the last ten-day of a month in November, supply the sky that carry benefit, predict short-term inside fuel or slant to go for nothing situation.
One, main area analysis
Graph 1: International crude oil goes situation
Data origin: WIND
Futures dish face circumstance, up to on November 13 (Zhou Er) , bulunte crude oil futures is newest in January sign up for every pails of 69.15 dollars to drop 0.97 dollars clinch a deal 38455 hands, signed up for every pails of 69.46 dollars to drop in Feburary 0.93 dollars clinch a deal 18065 hands. Futures of WTI12 month crude oil is newest sign up for every pails of 58.95 dollars to drop 0.98 dollars clinch a deal 82681 hands, signed up for every pails of 59.11 dollars to drop in January 0.97 dollars clinch a deal 16477 hands. Yesterday night dish Shanghai SC crude falls stop, oil price steeps fall make fuel oily bear press be issued to lower levels, fuel brunt FU1901 closes at yesterday 3298 yuan / ton, drop 1.05% . At present FU1901-FU1905 crosses period price to differ enlarge to reach 163 yuan / ton, merchandise on hand of 380cst of fuel of Singapore of agio of FU1901 period price is cut reach 13 yuan / ton.
Graph 2: Fuel is oily period merchandise on hand goes situation
Data origin: WIND
Respect of fuel fat merchandise on hand, according to statistic of dispatch of 100 travelling expenses, value of market of bitumen of Hua Na area drops 60 to 4160-4260 yuan / ton, marine and homebred mix air 180 libraries carry appraisal to drop 60 to 5230-5360 yuan / ton. Hua Dong market, bitumen expects clinch a deal valence is held be in firmly 3840-3890 yuan / ton, pressure of refine factory shipment is not great. Demand of market of near future cooking is general, area of circumjacent nevertheless Shandong and Hua Dong area advocate bitumen of high grade of battalion refine factory continues to halt export, integral export resource is shown a bit close spruce, the price that prop up keeps stable temporarily. Shanghai field, low metal is marine 180CST (density 0.98 the left and right sides, sulfur content 1 less than) hand in appraisal to drop from deduct a percentage from a sum of money 30 to 5450-5550 yuan / ton; Peaceful wave market, low metal is marine 180CST (density 0.98 the left and right sides, sulfur content 1 less than) hand in appraisal 5450-5550 from deduct a percentage from a sum of money yuan / ton, nantong market, low metal is marine 180CST (density 0.98 the left and right sides, sulfur content 1 less than) hand in appraisal 5430-5520 from deduct a percentage from a sum of money yuan / ton. Up to on November 13, price of U.S. dollor of C.I.F of Huang Bu of 380CST of Singapore tall sulfur 482.57 dollars / ton, go up 5.61 dollars / ton, it is 18 dollars to bank agio / ton. C.I.F of 380CST of Shandong market Venezuela 488.58 yuan / ton, go up 5.61 dollars / ton, come to bank agio 24 dollars / ton.
Graph 3: Singapore paper price of goods
Data origin: Wind
Will integratedly look, short-term inside fuel oil suffers crude oil to steep fall influence, bear press be issued to lower levels, operation go up or with slanting empty fuel oily train of thought is given priority to, the respect that cover interest can consider vacant close month much further month.
Graph 4: Singapore fuel oil depot is put
Data origin: WIND
Graph 5: Fuel oily imports and exports
Data origin: WIND
Crude oil respect, up to became on November 9, number of active artesian well adds American oil 12 reach 886, 5 have inside week in the past all around record so that grow, touch even more 3 years top level. Number of American oil artesian well increased 12 in all in October, go up for the biggest monthly since this year May. In addition, american crude output and only import volume increase last week, crude oil inventory continues to grow, benzine inventory also is recorded so that grow. In the meantime, according to newest the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that announce (OPEC) monthly magazine shows, crop was sand spy in October 10.63 million pails / day, was ten million five hundred and two thousand pails in September / day. According to the agreement of reduction of output before, agree with reduction of output especially dene 486 thousand pails / day, crop needs to maintain be in ten million five hundred and forty-four thousand pails / day lower part, but crop had exceeded this one level in October. Crude market looks empty mood to spread, as a result of sand spy crop exceeded level of acceptance of reduction of output in October, at present crude oil inventory, crop adds together with together, global crude oil supplies amplitude to exceed anticipate, crude oil supplies end superfluous and anxious warm up once more, crude oil bear pressure steep fall.
Bureau of development of Singapore international business (IES) the newest data that publish shows, end on November 7, stock of estate of Singapore fuel oiler rises reach sixteen million and seventy-six thousand pails, annulus increases than last week 4.0% , relatively the corresponding period dropped last year 32.09% . The half moon below November covers benefit freight to reach concentration, singapore fuel oily stockpile will pick up stage by stage, predict at the appointed time the situation that the market supplies insecurity can alleviate gradually.
Consumption of Chinese fuel oily apparent was five million four hundred and thirty-three thousand five hundred tons this year in September, reduce one hundred and forty-one thousand one hundred tons compared to the same period or 6% . Data of national statistic bureau shows, chinese fuel fat yield was 2.092 million tons in September, reduce 223 thousand tons considerably compared to the same period, or 10% ; Customs data shows, import volume is one million seven hundred and thirty-one thousand three hundred tons, drop compared to the same period 2% ; Export volume is one million two hundred and ninety-nine thousand one hundred tons,
3, hind city grinds sentence
Graph 6: Fuel is oily attempt of line of 1901 days of K
Data origin: Article China finance and economics
Empty element of much heavy interest of market of crude of near future international is applied pressure, face of supply and demand and message face fail to be formed to oil price prop up, crude oil appears steep fall situation. Benefit of newest whole of OPEC monthly magazine is empty at the same time international crude oil, crude market is the biggest pressure still originates the increase production of American shale oil and EIA inventory are recorded so that grow continuously. On the whole international crude price is short-term inside stop drop possibility is inferior, cost carries weak power your fuel bear pressure.
Supply a side, the goods covering interest that Singapore entered November is 5.8 million tons about, covered benefit goods to be 5 million tons October, supply of Singapore fuel market increases somewhat; In the meantime, index of freight rate of Baltic dry bulk cargo falls 1.9% , marine demand glides, expression is benefit sky. In light of whole, fuel is oily short-term or show next walking situation, the market with slanting empty train of thought is given priority to, later period can pay close attention to Iran to utter the change, word such as tendercy of Ou Peike reduction of output.