Rolled steel price goes weak cooking profit to have continue

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Invest a point:

In October after the middle ten days of a month, coke period goes now situation deviate from once more, we think, although coke metaphase supply and demand tightens balance posture to will still continue, but short-term contract in steelworks profit, environmental protection is restricted to produce the setting with comfortable limit to fall, cooking company profit still has larger contractive space, and current tall base the means that poor big probability drops with merchandise on hand completes repair.

Look from circumstance of current and main area, situation of systole of profit of steelworks of prospective 1-2 month will still continue, as a result of,basically be of rolled steel crop pick up and seasonal off-season arrival and speculation demand are abate and multiple pressure be caused by, price of all below this setting raw material all will be conducted, and the coke with highest profit is hit the airspace that control the possibility is the largest.

Although after November, season of each district heating is restricted to produce policy to will be fulfilled stage by stage, cooking plant go into operation is led will somewhat fall after a rise, but considering be restricted to produce strength not as good as last year the corresponding period, embellish of together with usury will still stimulate cooking enterprise to produce initiative, coke of predicting later period is supplied will present annulus to compare fall after a rise, the situation that rises compared to the same period. Additional, keep balance compared to the same period by coke crop, cast iron output grows 5% computation, breach of supply and demand will close further October narrow.

Current, domestic coking coal appears supply slant tight situation, after entering 3 quarters, this one state somewhat aggravate. Increase considering strength of safe production of near future colliery and those who import coal policy tighten up, cooking coal supply continues to increase a space finite.

Will integratedly look, below the influence that in usury embellish stimulation and environmental protection are restricted to produce limit to loosen, coke is supplied will continue to appear to rise situation compared to the same period. Inventory respect looks, the absolute level that considers steelworks coke stock and relative standard all are in perch, steelworks continues to fill inventory power is insufficient, together with producing area had be notted open to the profit space of haven shipment, reason coke spot price does not have the base that rises continuously. And prospective 1-2 lunar coke is downstream the demand of rolled steel will be abate, steelworks profit or continue to contract, at the appointed time price of all raw material all will be conducted, and the coke with highest profit is hit the airspace that control the possibility is the largest. Cooking coal checks strength to increase in safe production, entrance coal policy is tightened up and below the influence that demand slants to wait for an element by force, price performance will be strong at coke.

Risk element: Environmental protection is restricted to produce super- anticipate, cooking coal entrance increases apparently, rolled steel demand glides under anticipate

One, politic overview

Suffer black to fasten whole to take weak effect, in October after the middle ten days of a month, coke futures price appears concussion be issued to lower levels to go situation, end on November 9, brunt agreement 1901 receive 2351 yuan / ton, relatively high October point drops 179.5 yuan / ton, drop 7.09% . In the meantime, coke spot price picks up in steelworks start working and of cooking factory small stock prop up below, rise continuously, had moved 3 rounds on accumulative total at present, accumulative total goes up 300 yuan / ton, period go now situation deviate from once more, futures achieves 324 yuan to extent of agio of merchandise on hand / ton, be in opposite perch. We think, although coke metaphase supply and demand tightens balance posture to will still continue, but short-term contract in steelworks profit, environmental protection is restricted to produce the setting with comfortable limit to fall, cooking company profit still has larger contractive space, and current tall base the means that poor big probability drops with merchandise on hand completes repair.

2, politic and main logic

1. profit conducts logic to fall, coke spot price continues to rise the space is limited

After October, steelworks profit appears to contract apparently, according to our computation, at present whorl steel profit by 1350 yuan at the beginning of October / ton fall after a rise reachs 1000 yuan the following, heat coils to be close to profit and loss more near the balance (it is 200 yuan at present / or so tons) , look from circumstance of current and main area, situation of systole of profit of steelworks of prospective 1-2 month will still continue. As a result of,this basically is, below the setting that is restricted to produce limit to loosen in environmental protection on one hand, rolled steel crop picks up continuously, end last weekend, the whorl that Mysteel announces and heat up a week to spend crop to mix three million three hundred and forty-seven thousand seven hundred tons for three million four hundred and twelve thousand eight hundred tons respectively, all be in opposite perch. And official of ministry of letter of near future industry " high rolled steel price cannot last " opinion on public affairs also makes clear policy inflection point to may have come, the way that later period may measure through raising high yield swims downward demise share profit. On the other hand, seasonal the double pressure with abate demand of off-season overlay speculation will drive demand rolled steel spot price is farther be issued to lower levels. November after the middle ten days of a month, area of Hua Dong, Hua Na will enter consumption in succession off-season, rolled steel demand goes weak. In the meantime, consider rolled steel is absolutely this year the price is in perch, add year of trafficker to be in 4000 around have a winter store hind, this year beginning of spring appears bigger loss, predict this year trafficker winter store apiration is inferior. According to our survey understanding, major trafficker should achieve 3900-4000 in the price yuan / ton around when winter of Lv of ability unified exam store. And the newest reserve data that Mysteel publishs last week shows, continuance of inventory of whorl steel society drops, and steelworks inventory appeared small pick up, show current trafficker still is in go actively reserve position. Accordingly, be like whorl steel spot price drops reach 4000 yuan, price of all raw material all will be conducted, and the coke with highest profit is hit the airspace that control the possibility is the largest.

1 whorl, heat coils and coke profit takes diagram inventory of society of 2 whorl steel and steelworks stock go situation contrast diagram situation change

2. is restricted to produce limit comfortable usury embellish is exciting, coke is supplied will continue to pick up compared to the same period

Current, profit of domestic cooking company is in 600 yuan / ton above is exalted, together with environmental protection is restricted to produce policy to present limit after September comfortable evidence, coke supply picks up continuously. End to was become on November 9, the rate of go into operation of independent cooking company that Mysteel announces is 78.55% , relatively pick up last week 0.24 percent, compare with the photograph at the beginning of September pick up 3.55 percent, and the data of coke monthly yield that national statistic bureau publishs its fall compared to the same period present month by month to close narrow posture, fell compared to the same period September it is only 0.1% . Although after November, season of each district heating is restricted to produce policy to will be fulfilled stage by stage, cooking plant go into operation is led will somewhat fall after a rise, but considering be restricted to produce strength not as good as last year the corresponding period, embellish of together with usury will still stimulate cooking enterprise to produce initiative, coke of predicting later period is supplied will present annulus to compare fall after a rise, the situation that rises compared to the same period.

Additional, the coke supply and demand that calculates according to us expresses data to look evenly, after breach of supply and demand reachs high point from July, coke begins fall after a rise, 3 quarters breach of each months of supply and demand (for - need) it is respectively - 432.41, - 240.74 and - 118.44. Keep balance compared to the same period by coke crop, cast iron output grows 5% computation, breach of supply and demand will close further October narrow.

Chart chart of change of circumstance of go into operation of 3 cooking company monthly of breach of 4 coke supply and demand changes (for - need)

3. steelworks inventory is in perch, continue to fill inventory power is insufficient

Inventory can regard judgement supply and demand as the main index that main area changes, inventory of current cooking plant lasts low it is the main reason that spot price of the coke that prop up walks along strong. Nevertheless, look from historical data, the boom of cooking industry spends very old rate to depend on the filling inventory of steelworks is periodic, and the filling inventory process of steelworks depends on situation of its oneself demand and to prospective market anticipate. End on November 9, inventory of coke of 110 steelworks of countrywide is four million two hundred and thirty thousand four hundred tons, usable day number is 13.89 days, absolute level and relative standard all are in perch, and steelworks of near future mainstream reduces product producer price in succession, show steelworks is right prospective 1-2 lunar market anticipates relatively pessimistic. Here setting falls, steelworks continues to fill inventory power is insufficient, reason coke spot price does not have the base that rises continuously.

Additional, at present Tianjin harbor allows bridge of Lv of one class Jiaohe to allow one step anxious quoted price to mix 2480 yuan for 2675 yuan respectively, its price difference can't enclothe producing area to arrive the freight of haven, the demand of trade of merchandise on hand besides reason steelworks is in low. Picked up when inventory of week haven coke on November 9 295 thousand tons, more is to suffer effect of the meeting that score gain, haven lading, shipment suffers apparently be restricted be caused by, enthusiasm of store up goods increases trafficker of and rather than somewhat.

5 coke inventory and price go diagram 6 haven and price of producing area coke differ situation contrast chart change

Performance of price of 4. cooking coal will be strong at coke

Current, domestic coking coal appears supply slant tight situation, after entering 3 quarters, this one state somewhat aggravate. From coking coal supply and demand balance watch is pleasant to the eye, begin to appear after August supply shortage, 8, breach of two months of 9 supply and demand (demand - supply) for 132 mix 2.57 million tons. Frequency of reason of countrywide mine tickler was sent October, the State Council is installed appoint can cause " teach a lesson about absorbing near future accident cogent the announcement that has made work of year old of safe production of the colliery at the beginning of last years of a dynasty or reign " , shanxi province also emphasizes wanting to control a colliery strictly to overfulfill ability, face close the end of the year to must not grab crop to drive the task. In policy hasten severe setting falls, space of growth of output of predicting cooking coal is limited.

Import side looks, at the beginning of October, national hair changes appoint hold coal to import the conference, put forward coal import volume should be made the same score this year accuse, and import quota is not adding. Home of before this year 10 months imports coal 251 million tons, grow 11.5% compared to the same period; If be measured according to the entrance with kept balance 2017 predict, future 2 months are only forehead of 20 million tons of entrance is spent, relatively the corresponding period dropped apparently last year. Coal of 1-9 month coking imports a quantity to be fifty million three hundred and thirty-three thousand six hundred tons, drop compared to the same period 4.47% , later period imports a quantity to glide will be big probability incident.

Demand side looks, the exalted movement that cooking plant go into operation leads is carried soon brace up cooking coal demand, from September since the middle ten days of a month, steelworks and cooking plant help continuously to cooking coal inventory, current steelworks and level of inventory of cooking factory cooking coal had achieved seventeen million and ninety-seven thousand tons, be in inside year second new tall, and haven library existence glides continuously, show near future supply and demand slants tight situation still is in continuously. Nevertheless, had been in perch considering level of inventory of downstream cooking coal, of follow-up filling inventory durative still remain to observe.

Chart chart of circumstance of change of breach of supply and demand of 7 coking coal 8 steelworks and circumstance of change of stock of cooking factory cooking coal

3, risk element

1.If environmental protection is restricted to produce executive strength to exceed,anticipate, coke supplies apparent systole, can drive coke price to go tall

2.Four quarters cooking coal imports a quantity to increase apparently, colliery safety checks strength to loosen, criterion market of benefit empty cooking coal.

3.If the four seasons spends rolled steel demand to glide strength under anticipate, steelworks profit perch moves, break profit possibly to conduct logic.

4, conclusion and operation

Will integratedly look, below the influence that in usury embellish stimulation and environmental protection are restricted to produce limit to loosen, coke is supplied will continue to appear to rise situation compared to the same period. Inventory respect looks, the absolute level that considers steelworks coke stock and relative standard all are in perch, steelworks continues to fill inventory power is insufficient, together with producing area had be notted open to the profit space of haven shipment, reason coke spot price does not have the base that rises continuously. And prospective 1-2 lunar coke is downstream the demand of rolled steel will be abate, steelworks profit or continue to contract, at the appointed time price of all raw material all will be conducted, and the coke with highest profit is hit the airspace that control the possibility is the largest. Cooking coal checks strength to increase in safe production, entrance coal policy is tightened up and below the influence that demand slants to wait for an element by force, price performance will be strong at coke.

Accordingly, we think, coke price still has later period to drop further space, suggest 2400 above can consider to meet tall buy is empty, target 2200 bits around; Cooking coal can be configured as bull, 1300 around attempts meet low do much. Cover benefit aspect, cooking profit still has contractive space, can consider to meet inside the interval of 1.75-1.8 become rate of exchange of empty coke cooking coal high.