Methanol of overlay of double risk element drops greatly hav

  • Dec, 04th 2018

This paragraph of time, methanol drops to show from 3525 apogee nowadays 2750 the following, drop a 20% above, specific what element brings about so tremendous prices, we come fine fine thoughtful:

Enter in August, all chemical industry are tasted greeted spring, methanol also is broken through 3000 begin to rise step by step. Following watches are shown, the logic that chemical industry rose August depends on a RMB devalueing, below crude oil dominant board piece annulus move be caused by. The place of difference is going up at the product differ, PTA heads (supply of goods is nervous) , bitumen (crude oil) , methanol (winter is restricted gas and environmental protection) take second place.

However, enter in October, crude oil takes the lead in dropping, subsequently PP, plastic, methanol and black department drop in the round in succession, macroscopical risk is shown stage by stage, chemical breed early days transfers because of interest good factor expand, all regain origin, fall even more low. Drop this to basically fasten macroscopical element to fall board piece annulus move brought commodity general to drop.

Remove macroscopical however factor, onefold from the point of methanol, return the factor that should consider the following microcosmic aspects.

1, benefit good hype

Winter is restricted to enrage the element that follows environmental protection to had acclaimed two years to the influence of methanol, 16 years the four seasons is spent, from 2000 go up to 3000, 17 years the four seasons is spent, from 2500 go up to 3200, enter this year August, methanol is acclaimed beforehand, break through ahead of schedule 3000, highest develop 3500 above.

Fore-and-aft compare and character, the hiemal is restricted to enrage (include the overhaul) element, the influence was produced 900 thousand tons October last year can, affected 600 thousand tons to produce only this year in October can, consequence is contractible 30% .

The Jiao Lu that environmental protection element affects enrages methanol, begin from the height this year April, arrive all the time sequel, it is progressively and abate, the environmental protection element with exorbitant cry, begin in the 2nd quarter actually, had cashed stage by stage.

The bubble with good profit too expand, total conference appears undone when.

2, profit balance

Swim up and down the balance of profit all along won't always bend one party, unbalance is excessive will surely return to, when outback methanol price exceeds 3000, manufacturing plant is put in 500 ~ the 1000 profit between, wait-and-see and downstream, below the premise that rises continuously in crude oil, acetic acid sudden huge profits, aether of formaldehyde, 2 armour retains small interest only, hold the downstream olefin of first, coastal factory profit is negative, bring about finally be forced to jockey.

Answer view history data, in last few years methanol all valence is in 3000 the following, rushed twice to come high 2018 3500 above, the history is new high position, may exist, but last very hard.

Profit often all is not prices cannot abiding main factor, be in especially crude oil, under macroscopical resonance, regular meeting makes the fuse that detonates prices.

3, produce can put in

2018, home is produced newly outside can dividing CTO put in be close to 4 million tons, international puts in 3.4 million tons (American OCI175 10 thousand tons, iranian Marjiang165 10 thousand tons) . Produce newly more than 7 million tons can put in, of long-term sex rise to methanol cause gigantic pressure.

4, inventory is accumulated

End last weekend, total reserve is 812 thousand tons south Hua Donghua, compare inventory of the corresponding period increased 204 thousand tons 608 thousand tons last year, amplitude 25% .

The addition of inventory, produce newly what come from Iran on one hand can release, come from what haven olefin manufacturer jockeys to accumulate on one hand, inventory right now accumulate, form with one disaster after another.

Afore-mentioned microcosmic elements, overlay is macroscopical risk, the anticipation that methanol drops greatly is already clear.

The main factor that still has an influence prices additionally needs to be remembered well deeply, that is the financial attribute of methanol futures:

Well-known, methanol since futures since appearing on the market, financial attribute is stronger and stronger, the change of alleged finance attribute, also be human change. To the prices of methanol, except however supply and demand follows logic outside, the mood of the market is opposite with state of mind of prices evolve all in all, after-thought this prices, 3500 when, the market the picture of a flourishing, a lot of people look forward to to was full of, repeat the story last year in the dream. However a few weeks of short time, futures fell many a little bit 700, merchandise on hand glides 600, 800 yuan differ, so called benefit still is existence very, so called inventory increases finite, because the person's mood changed, state of mind changed, subsequently the change that prices also produced world-shaking, right now, the incisively and vividly that the financial attribute of futures reflects here.

Return instantly, a lot of commodity are to present panicky sex to glide, follow-up crude oil follows macroscopical if did not continue,exasperate premise falls, right now methanol avoid by all means is chased after empty, avoid follow-up and main area so called benefit is very progressively appear, bring big level thereby rebound.

This word is right, give authority again:

Macroscopical decision way, the industry decides breed, the technology decides dot entering the arena, choose the selection when situation choosing to plant.

Individual viewpoint, offer reference only, risk conceit.

(be sure to keep in mind: Article any viewpoints are clew risk merely just, must not operate directional look upon as what trade)