This week beautiful oil encounters 12 even shade, since beginning for agreement the longest drop repeatedly record. Newspaper of two a solar month of 31 days shows, condition of crude market supply exceeds demand is serious, although the United States is oily,steep fall in a month 20% later, intense technology takes demand instead, but data of taller crude oil reserve restricts his to answer lift to spend.
Zhou Yi (on November 12) beautiful oil jumps to leave high for nothing, get last weekend much factor of discussion interest of reduction of output of OPEC+ conference plan is propped up, but American politics pressure makes sand special from beginning to end one's heart still fluttering with fear, telangpu is big the mouth, oil price add drops.
Beautiful oil 12 join nether world, achieve a year new low hind just begin occurrence changeover, although data of reserve of crude oil of API, EIA soars as before, what newspaper of two a solar month of 31 days all shows supply exceeds demand is anxious, but oil price steeps fall 20% hind put in intense technology to take demand instead.
Telangpu is big the mouth, crude oil bull tries hard by commit to the flames
Zhou Yi (on November 12) beautiful oil jumps to open even more high for nothing 1% , almost recover last week 5 drop entirely, the OPEC+ conference on the weekend had conclusive effect.
The weekday on conspicuous of supernatural power of minister of sand spy energy (on November 11) express, OPEC is considering to cut down oil to supply in next year, this year October the reduction of output on the foundation 1 million pails / day, reason is market demand is becoming fatigued and weak. Persuading other member country and petroliferous country to agree with plan of a joint reduction in production at present especially dene, in order to answer seasonal the demand that the element brings glides, if be passed finally to carry out, global oil supply may be reduced at least accordingly 0.5% .
Below the pressure of American president Telangpu and other spending country, the crop this year increased sand spy to make an appointment with 1 million pails, in order to help balance market.
But American punish Iran is final the result is disappointing, a few big clients of Iran for example since China, India obtains immunity to be able to continue to buy Iranian oil, this brings about oily city to supply superfluous.
A message personage expresses, feel now especially dene was made fun of by American, the hope takes action avoid the price to drop further. What anticipate without the person exempt rate of the United States is such is big, sha Texi hopes to set next bottoms to be restricted for oil price at least.
Nevertheless the effort of crude oil bull makes a plan eventually, the big mouth of American president Telangpu buries the edge tool of bone abyss into bull. Late on November 12, presidential Telangpu is pushing the United States to go up especially say: "Hope sand does not want reduction in production with OPEC especially. Be based on supply an area, oil price drops should get greatly than now much. Oil price drops should get greatly than now much..
On November 13, futures of beautiful crude oil dish in drop exceed 8% , achieve even more 3 years the oldest odd-numbered days drops, the nadir comes 54.75 dollars / bucket. Bulunte crude oil futures dish in drop exceed 7.7% , refresh day is low to 64.61 dollars / bucket. Brunt of futures of domestic crude oil drops directly stop board, the newspaper receives 468 yuan / bucket.
Telangpu supports cautious attitude to the price of gas station before metaphase election, appeal Oupeike commands oil price for many times, recently is to be on the the United Nations General Assembly. Benzine rises in price the purchasing power that may erode American, weaken their view to economy.
From sand unusual point of view looks, more contradictory, if allow case of original oil price to rise,may worsen on one hand the relation of sand spy and the White House, from sand special armament is purchased and political angle sees the shelter that cannot lack the United States. But on the other hand, sand spy official thinks oil price is in every pails 60 to 80 dollars it is satisfactory limits, go against production to manage under this one price.
Newspaper of two a solar month of 31 days is thick as hail, supply surplus problem by bring up again
This week has two a solar month of 31 days of OPEC, IEA to declare, mentioned crude oil to supply a likelihood to be in surplus 2019 problem.
OPEC reduced what demand increased pair 2019 the 4th times to forecast inside a few months. Point out, crude market supplied superfluous case 2019 aggravate, because blame OPEC is supplied,add fast add quickly at global demand fast.
Beautiful Yin Meilin says in studying a report, house of American oil output does not fall high, increase plus sand spy and Russia crop, this begins to affect balance of oily city supply and demand. This bank complement says, predict American crude output will break through 12 million pails 2019 / day, make the United States becomes independent in energy field thereby.
Although sand is special,drop because of oil price and urgent the most urgent situation, desire hook in Russia a reduction of output, but Russia is done not have make particularly positive response, also may not assents continue after this year December reduction of output.
Nuowake of Russia energy minister ever expressed, if market of prospective a few months appears excessive supply will attribute seasonal influence. Nevertheless, he does not decide market next year to whether still can be supplied excessive. Russia Lu overcomes Petroleum Company to state support raised the decision of crop June, be cut down because of foregoing crop because of a lot of companies and suspend new project.
OPEC monthly magazine still shows, crude output increased 127 thousand pails in October / day comes 32.9 million pails / day, speed of slow down in demand of predicting crude oil is accelerated, because global economy grows the influence of the uncertainty related policy of next global harmonic future trade,this basically is.
IEA monthly magazine is additionally medium although go up,moved crude output to anticipate say, annulus of output of crude of Europe admire gram was compared in October increase 200 thousand pails / day comes 32.99 million pails / day. The oil output growth that restrains the admire that be not Europe member country is forecasted respectively from now on before 2018 2.2 million pails / day and 2019 1.8 million pails / the attune on day reachs 2.4 million pails / 1.9 million pails when day mixes / day.
But also maintain demand to add at the same time fast anticipate changeless, forecasted with what global petroleum demand increased 2019 2018 keep changeless, it is 1.3 million pails respectively / day mixes 1.4 million pails / day, the OPEC report that integral expression should publish earlier than this week is hopeful.
Air getting benefit vents to wait for element influence, beautiful oil trades 3 times after this week day is small pick up, concussion goes up, price of week line closing quotation signs up for 57.03 dollars / ounce, drop shrink slightly narrow to 4.74% .
OPEC reduction of output plans the relief troops with last crude
From the point of API data, crude oil inventory is in 9 have 8 weeks of collections to must increase inside week, and fell when Zhou Chuang on November 9 since Feburary the biggest go up. Inventory of crude oil of specific United States increases 8.8 million pails, reach 440.7 million pails, exceed the market to anticipate, yuan Chao anticipates 3.2 million pails when increase. Benzine inventory also increases 188 thousand pails accidentally, the market anticipates to reduce 1.5 million pails.
From the point of EIA data, this Zhou Wu (on November 16) stock of EIA crude oil soars 10.27 million pails, the biggest week adds break since 21 months, this one word is to trade 3 times what business anticipates. Weinberg expresses · of Eugen of analyst of German commercial bank, the fact that inventory of American crude oil still adds considerably makes clear, oily city has been been in supply excess position.
Message personage thinks, because fear demand puts delay and sand special, Russia and United States are record-breaking supply caused oil price to drop, OPEC is in increase production only hind of a few months is beginning to discuss change position now. Energy minister may discuss sand spy and other and petroliferous state reduction of output 1.4 million pails / day, 1.4% what be equivalent to global demand.
OPEC will hold the meeting on December 6, reduction of output will become the first topic for discussion of agenda extremely likely. The country still will be produced with main oil later Russia to sit a meeting, predicting next year will reduce supply further.
This organization may announce new crop restriction on the conference of next month, but the decision-making infuse that the interpose of American president Telangpu is this alliance uncertainty. State of play chess of gain of profit of the politics that so future still needs pay close attention to tripartite of sand spy, Russia, United States, economy.