Pulp futures: The barrier that pokes papermaking property pr

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Bite -- futures trades a short information that personage plum gentleman received futures firm to be sent recently.

The message shows, blanch contract of futures of wood pulp of sulfate needle leaf (code " SP " ) will appear on the market in Shanghai futures exchange on November 27, 2018 trade, appear on the market that day 8:55-9:0Price of 0 gather contest, 9:00 open quotation.

Nearly two years, new breed of commodity option market appears on the market thick and fast, "I " -- Chinese pulp industry product of first futures contract -- blanch wood pulp of sulfate needle leaf (pulp) futures, through 5 years endless research, after preparing, rank eventually " period " class, be about to become the 50th member of this market.

The 50th member will come

Live daily in people in, "I " form everywhere is visible, newspaper, presswork paper, book writes paper, notes paper, special type paper, wrapping paper and chipboard to wait, all be me member of paper a group of things with common features. It is especially during progress of electric business prosperity, express is packed soar with paper and chipboard dosage, already made the indispensable one part in people life. In last few years, every arrive " double 11 " wrapping paper price is fluctuant, and A papermaking concept always is conspicuous all the more.

Because afore-mentioned paper are tasted,be in people life place experience is extensive, and indispensable, accordingly, going up somehow, paper value wave motion also is become to make economy of a piece of report " barometer " .

But this piece of Yin Qing's errant weather watch, let people especially the enterprise on papermaking industry catenary already " suffer enough " . Futures is believed to study data in, suffer financial crisis was affected 2008, pulp (oar bleaching a needle) the price falls for a time defeat 4100 yuan / ton, but in Feburary 2010, because pulp basically produces one of countries especially big earthquake of Chile happening 8.8 on the Richter scale, oar price rises reach nearly 8000 yuan / ton high point. Subsequently supply and demand is balanced stage by stage, price stability is in 5000 yuan / or so tons.

Last year, similar one act rerun, suffer mixed in July market stock was in in August in recent years low and impact of policy of domestic sudden environmental protection, came in July needle oar price floats between December from 5100 yuan / ton rise reach 7575 yuan / ton.

"2018, arrive stage by stage as early days freight harbor, haven inventory increases apparently, the market supplies tight situation to alleviate considerably. Action of environmental protection superintend closed overlay 2017 area of cent stopping a ministry is produced can bring about pulp demand amplitude the element such as the influence that finite, market digests waste paper policy to bring stage by stage, at present the price moves smoothly. " this orgnaization points out.

Such situation, with me " the sea expedites a body " having affinity, because blanch oar of sulfate needle leaf to be opposite for Chinese market, need an import entirely almost, external depend on sb or sth for existence is spent adjacent 100% . Global pulp bibcock basically is in the United States centrally, it is Europe and Japan next. This, the 11 pulp futures with Shanghai futures affirmatory exchange but brand of complete a business transaction all also comes from abroad, it is Shikoku of Canada, Finland, Russia, Chile respectively.

Then, trade in relevant futures in detailed rules, storehouse of my complete a business transaction is coastal and set. Main concentration is importing the main haven of and other places of Shandong of distribution centre of supply of goods, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, include Qingdao harbor, Changshu harbor, Shanghai harbor, yellow Bu harbor, Tianjin harbor to wait.

In home, arrive from trafficker of upriver pulp mill, middle reaches client of downstream paper mill, downstream agency, terminal, long-term since, always must pay close attention to overseas market wind direction, adjust trade strategy often, ease the pain of handicap of wave motion of price of abroad raw material. According to statistic of national statistic bureau, papermaking of Chinese dimensions above produced a business 2017 2754; Advocate business Wu income 921.5 billion yuan, grow 15.37% compared to the same period; Profit total 66.6 billion yuan, capital total one thousand and thirty-one billion seven hundred million yuan, asset is indebted lead 55.91% , indebted amount 576.8 billion yuan; In company of 2754 papermaking production, deficit enterprise has 281, occupy than be being become.

My occurrence is low to be in passivity of catenary of global papermaking industry for a long time for domestic paper industry, it is the new tool of a milepost type.

"Trafficker hopes to increase the fluctuation of pulp spot price through pulp futures tool. Small paper mill hopes to reduce cost through pulp futures tool in the tradition. " the change that somebody evaluates me to may be brought to this market so.

Times of pulp market new price comes

Futures price is to point to the content price of the futures contract award that forms through making public contest price pattern on futures money field.

Personage of the research inside course of study says, futures price is in what form through amassing contest value by numerous negotiant inside bourse, the quote of market participator reflected them adequately to be opposite henceforth inside period of time, this commodity may produce metabolic anticipation in respect of supply and demand, next formation futures prices expect in this kind of price, can relatively comprehensive, bona fide mirrors whole market value to anticipate, have anticipate gender and authority.

With respect to domestic pulp price character, china achieve Guo Qinglong of analyst of industry of negotiable securities papermaking to analyse, the factor that affects pulp price includes inventory of domestic paper mill, country new increase production reason of wave motion of element of wave motion of stocks of circumstance, haven, can weak busy season, exchange rate, environmental protection, supply carries foreign oar plant the overhaul outside convention or plan, sudden incident (the strike, earthquake) , .

"Long term see lumber cultivate cycle and cost, macroscopical, metaphase sees inventory or supply and demand, short-term difference seeing value, pay close attention to the linkage sex between the price and supply and demand. " futures of the letter in occupying considers to analyse, in addition, swim up and down profit (raw material price, labour cost) , price of inside and outside is substitute price difference, poor (include difference is collected between produce and sale, especially ruble, dollar, Leiyaer) equal in value poor element also nots allow to ignore.

No matter why be planted,the price that the circumstance causes fluctuates, to the enterprise on papermaking industry catenary, all but according to oneself actual condition uses futures tool to have risk government.

Above all, to pulp company, can be in not only dish of face considerably when premium, be in ahead of schedule futures dish on sell a system of fixed quotas for marketing giving a lock carry out profit, still can undertake inventory protects value, dot radical to need a sale, still can undertake relevant a tasted benefit. "For example, use the price between needle leaf, broad leaf, deliquescent oar to differ fluctuant rule to do correlation to cover protect, it is to choose dish of side commonly when premium is not mark to taste pulp, participate in considerably, but as a result of dish the face is nominal configuration, need notes the risk squeezing a storehouse of month of complete a business transaction, discretion is participated in. " in letter futures analysis says.

Next, to trafficker, OK more agile share the market, use integratedly base difference trades, inventory management, inside and outside is covered benefit, relevant taste a benefit, period the method such as linkage undertakes keeping a cost or add large gain now.

Again, to the paper mill, OK according to oneself characteristic timely undertake valence is bought locking up purchasing cost, point, inside and outside dish an operation such as benefit.

"Paper is burnt " investment opportunity

No matter will look from industrial dimensions or agreement design, I calculate in " small assortment " , but small assortment often appears on investment opportunity great opportunity. Before I appear formally, the investment opportunity that investor of a few futures brings possibly to this pulp futures maintains look forward to.

On the basis period place announcement, pulp futures contract trades the unit is 10 tons / hand, the smallest fluctuant price is 2 yuan / ton, go up drop stop board extent trades to go up ± of price of day settle accounts 3% . Basis " control of risk of Shanghai futures exchange runs way " relevant provision, lowest trades 4% what bail is contract value, unit of complete a business transaction is 20 tons, contract month is came in January December.

With at present 6200 yuan / ton price of merchandise on hand will calculate, 4000 yuan / ton bail can trade skill pulp futures.

From the harden of 3% board in light of extent setting, bleach needle oar according to nearly 3 years all valence 5000 yuan / ton will calculate, skill pulp futures trades every day of the biggest fluctuant range will be 150 yuan / ton.

According to investing orgnaization analysis, as similar as other futures breed, on this breed trade the opportunity includes to cross period, spec, wait to rushing to be configured with asset. According to agreement of main area far and near strong weak logic is mixed logic of complete a business transaction can undertake crossing period operation. Additional, pulp investment involves environmental protection, weather, carry, the concept such as exchange rate, can taste other breed to undertake losing by force assorted with chemical industry.

Be worth what carry is, every time paper value shock, domestic papermaking concept also often immediately respond to a news.

Letter futures studies data shows in, domestic A paper industry appears on the market company amount is considerable, add up to 18. The morning that includes Shandong province cries industry of paper of group of paper industry, China peaceful, sun, rich collects paper industry, industry of paper of the triumphant favour share that Zhejiang saves, Jing Xing, civilian abundant is special paper, industry of paper of the share installing Ni of the Fujian Province, green hill, south paper share, still have a person of extraordinary powers of coronal of industry of paper of Tian Hong of the industry of paper of Heilongjiang constant abundant that is in other area respectively, Xinjiang, Guangdong industry of paper of guest of appropriate of industry of paper of Shan Ying of new and high, Anhui, Sichuan, Hunan silver of industry of Yue Yang paper, Henan is columbine beauty of industrial, Ningxia.

"Pulp futures appears on the market, the market is greeted eventually ' paper is burnt ' prices, after all bull and nominal who is paper paste, can eat melon to await only. " futures trades personage plum gentleman says.