This week, case is supplying crude price to last superfluously benefit sky drops position of broken the beginning of the year, WTI is more achieve in Zhou Er since going out 3 years the biggest drop, also be the history at the same time the longest drop repeatedly record.
Undeniable, the degree that the supply of current market reached to make investor panicky really, no matter be the United States, Russia or OPEC, be in ceaseless addition crop.
The American crude output 2018, the extent of growth exceeded an imagination. The EIA data of newest first phase shows, american crude output had achieved 11.7 million pails / day, this not only highest value of the history, still compare the corresponding period grew to be close to 3 million pails last year / day, grow 33% compared to the same period! To current and weak market, this is " horrible " fact. The effort that extent of this one increase production makes OPEC two years much not only fail to build a mound for want of one final basket of earth-fall short of success for lack of a final effort, can let global market spend cold winter in the panic of serious excess supply more probably.
Crop also had the crude oil of Russia to increase a base considerably, according to Peng Bo newest forecast, cost of Russia Ural crude oil is in 2015 considerably cut, the trend that and maintain all the time in last few years drops. To 2018, the cost of Ural crude oil needs 50 dollars merely, and arrive 2019, cost still will continue to glide to 40 dollars. Current, russia had had the low cost that rivals with American photograph, future is getting used to respect of low oil price will have better performance. Because although prospective crude price glides,this can imagine, russia also won't have possibly again like 2016/2017 year strength of in that way reduction of output, in OPEC new in plan of round reduction of output, russia can have how old support strength after all we show leave a matter for future consideration.
Additional, the crude output of OPEC oneself also appeared the growth of older rate, especially with sand spy more October considerably increase production. Whole October, OPEC whole crop increases about 127 thousand pails / day, this comes from Yu Sha's special contribution entirely. According to newest market information, OPEC is new agreement of round reduction of output will be based on the crop October to undertake, because this does not eliminate sand,be in to obtain higher market yield especially October put into high gear. Have two kinds about the view of reduction of output currently, one kind is reduction of output 1 million pails / day, another kind is reduction of output 1.4 million pails / day, but no matter which are planted, the participation of Russia enthusiasm is not very tall it seems that, because of this effect to this round of reduction of output, we still should see the effort between OPEC and blame OPEC member.
Demand end, we the demand of American crude oil that this week saw weak sign likewise. After gliding seasonally, we ought see rate of go into operation of American refine plant appears seasonal pick up. But disappointing is, we did not see similar case appear. According to the EIA data of newest first phase, rate of go into operation of American refine plant is last week 90.1% , compare only on period grow 0.1% , oil refining demand also almost with on period keep identical, of demand grow to still need to continue to await substantially.
Appear the abidance that the prime cause of this kind of circumstance is American gasoline demand goes weak, difference of price of benzine splitting decomposition glides continuously, and drive oil refining gross profit of whole maintain in low. This year since whole, oil refining gross profit of the United States glides continuously, current oil refining gross profit considerably under 2017, and still have take weak trend ceaselessly. If we see difference of price of American petrolic splitting decomposition alone, our meeting exclaim at petrolic market exceeding weak force. Difference of price of American benzine splitting decomposition appears inside a month from 13 dollars / the bucket glides 7 dollars / bucket, almost cutting sb in two at the waist! To this kind of circumstance, the fact on the history is belonged to infrequent, europe was to appear more gas price the awkward situation under crude price!
At present whole looks, the main area of crude market still slants weak, and schedule of OPEC reduction of output does not have exact message. Meanwhile, we see current price has appeared to drop considerably, and had anticipated what did not come reflective amid, so of current market whole drop the risk has been dissolved basically.
In the API/EIA data of Zhousan and Zhou Si, inventory of American crude oil appeared considerably growth, and EIA data created the amplitude of the biggest odd week since 17 years Feburary, achieved 10 million pails of above, but the report of the price was not behaved very infirmly however, this had explained excess supply brings about what stock soars to anticipate had been mirrorred in current price.
Maintain a warehouse at the same time of the sentiment that data also shows market be expected to fall use up almost to use up. We observe Duokongbi discovers WTI fund, current fund arrived than falling for nothing more low-down position, and a this many sky is compared glided to also drive crude price quickly super- anticipate drop, these professional investor break future considerably again dish possibility already greatly reduce, in can attracting partial fund manager currently to return the market again relative to low however, go.
Will look from the technology, lowest of the WTI on day wire has dropped early days dish those who rectify platform is important prop up, the price also begins herein to spread out rebound, and come from hour line look, short-term bottom has been formed, the price appeared a paragraph of small breakthrough, the prices that accordingly we predict next week is led probably will hasten is warm, the risk that the market steeps fall already come out.
On the whole, although current market still is in weak force, rebounding also is 3 fold, indication capital still relatively careful, the city after our judgement has dropped urgently last week had overdrawn to drop situation, later period will appear of progressively rehabilitate price super- sell prices. Next period of time should pay close attention the tendercy of OPEC reduction of output, current market has been in phase of empty to benefit apathetic, any benefit much information can drive get warm again after a cold spell of market state of mind stage by stage. Because this has enterprise of the demand that lock up valence to be able to have the proper operation that lock up valence locally here, can use period authority to undertake WTI 54 at the same time under cooperate to lock up valence.