One, close month drops considerably Dan Yuanyue drops finite
Although international oil price begins look forward to firm, far month tumbles relatively finite, but bitumen futures is close now month agreement dropped considerably however in December. Close month drops basically is merchandise on hand drops considerably be led, and far month however because look forward to of international oil price is firm and go situation is relatively smooth.
2, cost cave in hopeful of merchandise on hand continues to drop
Oil price of early days international walks out of dripping wet of a merry and lively drop prices, brent and WTI drop respectively defeated 70 dollars and 60 dollars are important col, but drop in this among the trend, bitumen spot price still is stronger relatively, refine factory machines bitumen profit to be in perch. But drop gradually as air temperature, downstream demand begins to lose, refine factory faces the possibility of tired library, accordingly, below this kind of circumstance, usury embellish is apparently hard of hold together, change and of character, as a result of the cave in of cost, the bitumen spot price with strong early days is short-term be faced with fill considerably dropping risk.
Early days, when factory of other area refine begins to depreciate generally considerably, factory of Shandong area refine is maintained because of inventory level on the low side strong, but Shandong area also begins to drop now, have representative Qi Lu petrifaction to reduce 200 yuan or so among them.
Besides cost cave in, downstream demand is weak also be one of main reasons that spot price reduces the price. Annual winter is bitumen demand off-season, again integral highway construction does not give together with power this year, accordingly, bitumen is downstream demand more show slant weak. Before, when winter bitumen demand not when beautiful, partial refine factory begins to change the line of production cooking makings, but crude oil drops, derv price goes weak to bring about cooking to expect demand also slants weak. Those who occupy data of dispatch of 100 travelling expenses show, makings of cooking of a week Shandong drops recently 300 yuan / ton reach 3500 yuan / ton, under Shandong area bitumen all valence. Current, bitumen and cooking feed demand are fatigued and weak, of cost price case drop more is the treatment profit that reduces refine plant.
3, lose nearly far strong or will continue
Be in supply and demand when bitumen spot market among two weak structure, it is not quite reasonable that exorbitant profit shows, accordingly, predict short-term fall in the impact that reduces profit, spot price continues to fill dropping possibility is larger. Calculate with the pacing at the beginning of current oil price, bitumen cost is in probably 3000-3200 yuan / ton inside interval, spot price of predicting later period has fall reach 3200 yuan / ton smaller even possibility, correspondence close month 12 agreement touch likely 3000 yuan / ton likelihood. Nevertheless, relative to character, far month 1906 agreement however hopeful follows international oil price and fluctuant.
From the point of current situation, crude price is opposite on the low side, continue to drop greatly probability is not big, dish face hopeful stops drop look forward to is firm, this also will give bitumen 1906 contract prop up certainly. In addition, if international oil price can look forward to is firm, and extent of callback of bitumen merchandise on hand is deeper, still can stimulate a winter so possibly store demand.
whole, the possibility that continues to drop considerably as a result of short-term spot price is larger, close month 1812 months of agreement will be squelched, do not eliminate to drop even defeat 3000 yuan / ton likelihood, but relative to character, far month can compare close month probably a little some stronger, nevertheless, far month is most important still is to need those who see international oil price to go situation.