Methanol drops situation when to stop get warm again after a

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Core viewpoint

. Supply a side, considering home gas source grows relatively slow and the construction of gas storage establishment is periodic, although natural gas entrance increases considerably this year, gas waste problem is short-term inside solve hard, we predict to arrive by November at the beginning of December, southwest also will have more natural gas to make methanol plant fall to lose or jockey, crop is supplied will get bigger impact.

. Import side, considering sailing date and entrance profit, we predict to imported methanol to be 650 thousand tons about November, entrance increment is relatively finite, compare October, speed of haven tired library will put delay.

. Demand side, drop as methanol price and of alkene price rebound, the profit rehabilitate of MTO is apparent, among them deficit of Hua Dong MTO closes considerably narrow, had regained the gain level to the end of September, as promote promote those who wait for device to restart the promotion with bear, the prices of methanol will be started afresh, the moving situation that future needs to pay close attention to MTO device closely.

. The operation is politic: Enter by November later, stop as oil price drop look forward to is firm, and of downstream MTO profit gradually repair, methanol rebounds hopeful, as promote promote those who wait for device to restart the promotion with bear, the prices of methanol will be started afresh, prospective need closes natural gas device closely to be restricted to produce and the moving circumstance of device of Hua Dong MTO. Cross breed to cover benefit aspect, those who consider PP near future slant to go infirmly situation, pay close attention to PP-3MA price to need contractible opportunity.

. Risk element: The influence of exchange rate risk to the entrance, oil price drops greatly etc

Detailed content

One, prices reviewing

Since the four seasons is spent, methanol whole maintains or after raise first situation, drop as a result of haven inventory at the beginning of October apparent, outside overlay dish device jockeys the reason such as grow in quantity, methanol price rises to the perch inside year greatly. Suffer crude oil to drop greatly continuously subsequently and downstream MTO loss is severe wait for element influence, play chess of much emptier rich is relatively intense inside field, futures price all the way the explore below concussion arrives of 2673 low, spot market also follows futures dish the face issues defeat ceaselessly.

2, main area analysis

1, crude oil stops drop rebound, chemical atmosphere improves

Review 2018, crude oil whole maintains or after raise first situation, before 3 quarters, gram of admire sufferring Europe fulfills exchange rate of agreement of reduction of output, dollar to drop above quota and the United States alleges will export to Iranian crude oil 0 patient wait for an element to stimulate, the market thinks output of other area crude increases also cannot what exit of fill Iran crude oil drops is vacant, crude oil futures is pulled go up to 4 years to come top price, among them WTI crude oil breaks through every pails of 76 dollars first, crude oil breaks through Bulunte first every pails of 86 dollars. Arrived four quarters, the many countries that include China inside as American exempt continue to import Iranian crude oil and global stock to drop the effect that causes demand to be anxious to wait for an element, crude price drops many days continuously, achieve achieve history on the longest drop repeatedly record.

However, the abidance of oil price steeps fall had caused the uneasiness of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that is important finance origin with oil, petroliferous country is discussing Ou Peike and the blame Ou Peike that share reduction of output highest 2019 reduce daily output 1.4 million pails offer, in order to prevent the market superfluous the oil price that cause drops, predict will on December 6 discussion of to sit a meeting 2019 market policy. In addition, data makes clear, the average cost of Permian area shale oil is in basically 45-55 dollar / bucket above, limit cost is higher. When be based on above, we think short-term inside the possibility that oil price drops greatly again is not large, oil price will stop drop look forward to is firm, this will drive whole chemical industry board piece market sentiment improves, to methanol rebound having urge action actively.

2, natural gas supplies impeach, finite gas anticipates tomorrow

From supply angle to look, before 2018 3 quarters, natural gas crop 115.6 billion stere, grow 6.3% compared to the same period; Consumption of natural gas apparent 201.7 billion stere, grow 18.2% compared to the same period, measure at the entrance relatively for, growth of output of domestic natural gas is relatively slow, in recent years, of our country natural gas external depend on sb or sth for existence is spent go tall continuously, already adjacent 2018 40% , in addition, because price of our country natural gas practices governmental control, civil air price and industrial gas price exist to hang, seasonal price difference is compared again small, bring about commerce to lay in establishment deficient, supply and demand slants continuously close.

Look from demand angle, suffer coal to change good factor of interest of department of improving substandard of gas policy, economic situation to affect, natural gas consumption appeared to exceed 30 billion stere first 2017 compared to the same period increment, amplitude is adjacent 20% . The environmental protection problem that poses to solve coal fired especially, the country is in roll out actively in last few years " coal changes energy of life " policy, this one policy although the effect is distinct, but also bring about demand of domestic natural gas to increase apparently, supply breach to magnify quickly, heating season appeared to enrage barren badly 2017, violent wind of price of domestic share LNG rises to 9000-10000 yuan / ton. By 2017, many ministries and commissions combine print and distribute " cleanness of northern region winter warms oneself program (2017 - 2021) " , the requirement arrives 2019, northern region cleanness warms oneself rate achieve 50% , replace medicinal powder coal (contain furnace of small effect pannikin to use coal) 74 million tons, can see, "Coal changes energy of life " it is a country big politics guiding principle, the gas barren last year is unalterable of this one policy successional.

Although face a lot of problem, coal changes gas policy to will still be driven continuously, considering home gas source grows relatively slow and the construction of gas storage establishment is periodic, although natural gas entrance increases considerably this year, gas waste problem is short-term inside solve hard, at the appointed time natural gas makes methanol plant will be pounded again. The near future, unit of head of northwest ministry atmolysis has been restricted to enrage jockey, include Qinghai Gui Lu 800 thousand tons of device jockey by October, predict to will restart in Feburary 2019; The grand in Qinghai 600 thousand tons of device jockey at the beginning of November, predict to will restart in Feburary 2019; Source of Inner Mongolia rich 1 million tons of device the middle ten days of a month fell in November negative jockey, restart wait for wait surely, we predict to arrive by November at the beginning of December, southwest also will have more natural gas to make methanol plant fall to lose or jockey, produce can put in will get bigger impact.

3, entrance increment is finite tired library speed puts delay

Regard the main entrance of methanol as one of countries, the methanol entrance 2018 is added fast put delay, methanol imports about 3.7 million tons first half of the year, compare the corresponding period reduced 200 thousand tons or so last year, especially methanol of entrance of 2 quarters portion slants little, imported 460 thousand tons merely June among them, create the lowermost value that comes nearly two years, because foreign portion plant centers the overhaul,basically be, outside bringing about a country, current supply of goods decreases. Since 3 quarters, as outside dish the overhaul ends, and coastal alkene device restarts, the import volume of methanol picks up gradually, but integral photograph is compared 2017 still apparent on the low side. Current, foreign device 1.65 million tons of device besides Iranian Marjan 7 move into bear, 2.3 million tons of device of New Zealand Methanex 6 outside moving into bear, the others whole moves smooth. Considering sailing date and entrance profit, we predict to imported methanol to be 650 thousand tons about November, entrance increment is relatively finite.

From the point of inventory, at present inventory of Hua Dong haven 423 thousand tons, inventory of Hua Na haven one hundred and twenty-three thousand three hundred tons, increase than small last month, basically drop continuously as a result of the price, receive money downstream general. According to current sailing date, haven area imports harbor goods to be controlled in 210 thousand tons, and the last ten-day of a month will have a part to protect transit of duty supply of goods littoral in November to southeast Asia, in light of whole, compare October, speed of prospective tired library will put delay.

4

, MTO profit rehabilitate is apparent, attention device restarts time

Burgeoning and downstream respect, methanol is collected to be close to 15 million tons outside alkene, about 8 million tons are collected outside device of Hua Dong MTO among them, about 3.5 million tons are collected outside Shandong MTO/MTP device, it is thus clear that coastal MTO device holds the balance to the demand of methanol. However, by September later, because demand of European area olefin slants,lose, massive move goes to middle east and southeast Asia ethylene northeast inferior the market, bring about unbalance of the supply and demand inside area, price bluff type drops, the perch from near 1400 dollars / ton drop all the way 920 dollars / ton up and down. Linkage is close between the downstream product of the ethylene that regards fundamental chemical industry as the product and methanol, as ethylene price steep fall, methanol makes alkene profit go weak considerably, the company with downstream singler product is to last more deficit, partial plant begins to fall negative jockey even, among them Zhejiang is promoted promote device of 690 thousand tons of MTO to took the lead in jockeying in October, subsequently Central Plains ethylene 200 thousand tons of device jockey at the beginning of November, and Shandong couplet chemical industry is current 8 move into bear, constant of Shandong in relief coal is connected at present 6 move into bear, device of peaceful wave rich heart 7 move into bear etc, decrease to the demand of methanol. The near future, drop as methanol price and of alkene price rebound, the profit rehabilitate of MTO is apparent, among them deficit of Hua Dong MTO closes considerably narrow, had regained the gain level to the end of September, we think as promote promote those who wait for device to restart the promotion with bear, the prices of methanol will be started afresh, the moving situation that future needs to pay close attention to MTO device closely.

Integrated afore-mentioned analysises, big probability of short-term oil price will stop drop look forward to is firm, this will drive whole chemical industry board piece market sentiment improves, to methanol rebound having urge action actively. Supply a side, considering home gas source grows relatively slow and the construction of gas storage establishment is periodic, although natural gas entrance increases considerably this year, gas waste problem is short-term inside solve hard, we predict to arrive by November at the beginning of December, southwest also will have more natural gas to make methanol plant fall to lose or jockey, produce can put in will get bigger impact. Demand side, drop as methanol price and of alkene price rebound, the profit rehabilitate of MTO is apparent, as promote promote those who wait for device to restart the promotion with bear, the prices of methanol will be started afresh. On the operation, enter by November later, southwest is restricted to produce be restricted to enrage, and of downstream MTO profit gradually repair, methanol rebounds hopeful, as promote promote those who wait for device to restart the promotion with bear, the prices of methanol will be started afresh, prospective need closes natural gas device closely to be restricted to produce and the moving circumstance of device of Hua Dong MTO. Cross breed to cover benefit aspect, those who consider PP near future slant to go infirmly situation, pay close attention to PP-3MA price to need contractible opportunity.