Futures of new breed pulp will at next week 2, going up on November 27 namely period place appears on the market. We shared the circumstance of preexistence this life of pulp industry before.
Circumstance of wave motion of the supply demand relations that we understand pulp futures today, price and technical trend!
One, wood pulp supply demand relations 1 exchange rate and inventory element
Year end wood pulp rose in price to basically be mixed by change of RMB exchange rate 2016 relatively low drive of inventory double element. Before 2016 3 quarters, wood pulp price maintains stability basically, did not appear to fluctuate considerably. In September 2016 after the portion, because American president changes an election, economy to anabiosis,wait for a reason, the RMB begins to enter new round devalue periodic. In exchange rate metabolic drive falls, domestic pulp price deviates from international pulp price goes situation, appear to rise considerably. Came in September 2016 between January 2017, foreign trader of broad leaf oar is average valence by 485 dollars / ton rise to 514 dollars / ton, rise 5.98% , and inside Shanghai of broad leaf oar dish valence criterion by 3, 800 yuan / ton rise reach 4957 yuan / ton, compared to the same period, go up panel height is amounted to 30.92% .
Will integratedly look, annual is broad 2016 foliaceous oar foreign trader all valence 535.43 dollars / ton, fall compared to the same period 15.60% , home of broad leaf oar all valence 4076.9 yuan / ton, drop compared to the same period 10.90% , annual was exchange rate of RMB add dollar on average 2016 6.647, rise compared to the same period 5.76% . Consideration RMB devalues extent of wave motion of price of domestic and international pulp is almost consistent after the element.
Small stock drove epicycle to rise in price likewise. 2016 end, inventory of Qingdao harbor wood pulp for a time under 400 thousand tons, inventory of Baoding library wood pulp is to be in 30 thousand tons or so to wander more, all be in since 2014 relatively low. Supply of market of aggravate of small stock level is tight, cause papermaking enterprise to purchase panic, drive further rise in price.
Wood pulp market appeared in December 2016 overt price rises and inventory downtrend, report gives the market panicky to what rise in price mood, purchase active. But enter after 2017, stocks rebounds, obtained the price, stock March double high point. End inventory and price both all were in opposite perch in March 2017, but already appeared posture of fall after a rise. From the point of historical data, value of wood pulp market is in opposite perch, inventory is in relatively low, piece when volume is higher, the inflection point of existence price fall is possible; Conversely, when the price relatively low, inventory is relatively exalted, piece when volume is inferior, the inflection point that existence price rises is possible.
Produce newly as world pulp market can ceaseless put into production, prospective pulp price goes force will be more steady. 2016, the product line of 1.5 million tons of pulp of the Puma oar factory of Brazilian KlabinSA group, medium the project such as the mill of 2 million tons of pulp of limited company already all amounted to industry of paper of oar of Asia of follower of group of the project of 400 thousand tons of pulp of the White Russia Svetlogorsk that labour international invests, golden light put into production or stand-alone test. 2016 - between 2019, the whole world adds wood pulp, deliquescent oar newly to produce can exceed 6 million tons. New increase production can put into production can raise yield of near future pulp not only, price of pulp of influence near future goes situation, still will increase pulp to be produced for a long time can, change condition of the pulp in becoming long-term, long-term to pulp price goes power generation far-reaching influence.
World pulp produces can steady growth
2 prices are fluctuant
Waste paper oar is the papermaking raw material with domestic the biggest dosage. 2016, wastage of oar of our country waste paper amounts to 63.29 million tons, 65% what occupy all pulp to use up. Waste paper oar is reclaiming by waste paper after choosing, go up via lukewarm leach, break into pieces abrade wait for a process to be made afresh, what accordingly its contain fiber to be destroyed by 2, in the bad on papermaking function Yuyuan gives birth to an oar, at the same time its property gets the factor such as waste paper origin the effect is apparent. Waste paper oar is used at the utility such as newspaper commonly.
Domestic waste paper and entrance waste paper exist on quality certain difference, the developed country such as Euramerican day is having relatively perfect waste paper to reclaim classified system, the quality after the waste paper classics that its reclaim is handled is higher, dimensions is changed reclaim, reduce manufacturing cost effectively; Under photograph comparing of domestic waste paper reclaim classification is relatively backward, reclaim the system is messy, quality of waste paper whole is low. Accordingly, domestic waste paper and entrance waste paper are put in fair value to differ, be in commonly 100-150 yuan / ton.
2016 year end, price of domestic waste paper is greeted soare, price of partial area waste paper turns over times even. And price of entrance waste paper also subsequently when the river rises the boat goes up too, beautiful useless, day abandons useless, Europe go up all be in 100 dollars / or so tons, achieve nod high in recent years. The main reason that rises in price this has: Designedly washs out papermaking industry to lag behind produce can mix superfluous produce can, make supply the market gradually nervous; Meet to cooperate G20 peak, ensure " the conference is blue " , and other places of Hua Dong, China north stop production of factory of box of paper mill of 7 provinces city, paper is restricted to produce 20 days or so, be restricted to produce 30-50% ; Environmental protection superintend and director is checked adopt " high pressure " posture, much ground is banned or close stop papermaking, pack, presswork wait for pollution serious " 10 small " enterprise, big paper mill is restricted to produce; Standard of coal, carriage equivalence rises, cost marry again arrives among waste paper price. The accident such as the fire of waste paper library that frequency of together with each district sends, rise in price the iteration of the mood drove this second price soare.
Waste paper slump in price, rapid fall after a rise. Investigate its reason, each main paper mill is in the waste paper of corner of period of early days high price is relatively saturated, the resentment to costly waste paper appeared in the meantime, each district waste paper trades wait-and-see mood dense, costly waste paper unmanned make inquires, encounter price bluff type drops then. Enter after April, look forward to of waste paper price is firm appear pick up evidence, in demand of small paper mill promotes actively, demand of large paper mill is smooth, purchase the value firm in have litre.
Show according to data of in former years, enter price of the waste paper after May relatively smooth, fluctuant and lesser. After epicycle slump in price rebounds, waste paper enters exalted concussion interval, as the country the change on policy of outer useless import, access of entrance waste paper is temporary suffocate suffocate, the country abandons demand increase sharply to push high country to abandon the price.
Abandon entrance manner to look external from superintendency layer, price of prospective waste paper will still maintain current ascendant trend.
2, the industry is spent centrally with technical trend 1 industry is spent centrally
Source of industry of our country pulp relatively concentration. Data of national statistic bureau shows, 2015 our country pulp (wood pulp and blame wood pulp) the province of before producing per year a quantity 10 is Shandong, Henan, Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Heibei, Fujian, Jiangxi and Jiangsu respectively, the total output of these 10 province holds countrywide pulp total output 90% above. Among them Shandong saves pulp output 5.674 million tons, 34.4% what hold countrywide pulp total output.
Before pulp output 10 province hold countrywide pulp total output 90% above
From the industry concentration is spent in light of, suffer backward produce can eliminate an impact, pulp industry CR4 rises stage by stage after 2010, the industry after 2012 spends stability to be in centrally 44% . From the point of company point of view, wood pulp industry produces can same concentration to be in company of a few large pulp, the industry is spent centrally highlight, bibcock enterprise is produced can the advantage is clear.
Wood pulp industry is produced can center at industry bibcock enterprise
In labour the work out that believe a ministry releases " light industry develops a program (2016-2020 year) " in put forward papermaking course of study clearly to want to enhance own innovation ability, exert oneself to adjust an industry structure, comprehensive the particular job that pursues green to make, point out industry future wants to " energy-saving, environmental protection, green " way develops, strengthen fiber raw material efficient use the directional development such as the technology.
Emphasize to the exert oneself of environmental protection, to pulp industry development space set new difficult point.
Policy new rule is right produce can the admittance doorsill of extend raised new requirement, stipulate extend dimensions wants to achieve: Chemical wood pulp produces per year 300 thousand tons, chemical and mechanical wood pulp produces per year 100 thousand tons, chemical bamboo pulp produces per year 100 thousand tons, blame wood pulp produces per year 50 thousand tons. And new increase production can want experience to issue commonly can grind report, judge through annulus, construction period, produce can climb the level such as slope, need time 3 years at least. Produce according to current business can in light of the circumstance, outside removing bibcock company, assume such yield very hard to be able to build cost of brings high specified number.
Environmental protection ministry released in November 2016 " control contaminant discharges a license to make executive plan " , build in control produce can besides raised new requirement to pulp company again. This system suitable scope enclothed the blowdown sort of pulp company, because this is right,the production of pulp company produces immediate effect. Up to now, already the province city such as Sichuan, Anhui, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing began blowdown licence in succession the nucleus sends the work, did not come for some time, blowdown system of licensing will be rolled out adequately inside countrywide limits. Environmental protection ministry predicts to will be in 2017 before the end of the year, finish include papermaking industry inside the nucleus sends the blowdown licence of 10 ford industry the job, future will form the environmental protection of type of an organic whole that is core with licence superintend pattern.
" discharge contaminant licence " system
Blowdown system of licensing, show any units are about to discharge contaminant to the middle of the environment, should to concerned mechanism (it is branch of director of environmental protection administration commonly) the sort that declares place to discharge contaminant, property, amount, discharge the ground is nodded and discharge means to wait, agree via examining, grant license rear can discharge.
Direct or the person that discharge the blowdown of contaminant of water, gas to the environment secondhand;
Produce environmental noise pollution because of using fixed device in industrial production;
Trash of generation industry solid body is dangerous perhaps of trash.
Hold card blowdown and press card blowdown
Gross controls a principle
" blowdown licence " -- period of efficacy does not exceed 5 years
" temporarily blowdown licence " -- period of efficacy does not exceed a year
System of year examine and verify, lawfully revoke cancel system
Come on stage with what blowdown system of licensing is a series of policy of the representing, posed new challenge to pulp industry. Show industry future will maintain the high strength of environmental protection, and the fixed installation cost that brings subsequently, manufacturing cost raises wait for production to manage sexual difficult problem, it is the practical difficult problem that is placed before each pulp company. Face such development pressure, of large pulp company should want to compare small and medium sized business apparently to measure more sufficient, more handy, if the nucleus of blowdown licence is sent, the pollution with the enterprise the condition such as establishment of prevention and cure is preferred and foundation, orderly extend, this used system standard to form it is with scale of production oriented, the industry that is helpful for development of large pulp business develops way.
Because this policy raise the quota will make pulp trade the next time of assemble basically shove one of hands.
2 technologies trend
Traditional pulp company adopts chemical law commonly or chemical and rigid standard regards the main craft that make a starch as means, liquid waste discharge capacity is large and contain many suspension other people, BOD, COD, chroma (black liquor) , soda acid material, noxiousness material, pollute an environment badly. According to the data that environmental protection ministry discloses, chinese papermaking industry year sewage is discharged 18.4% what occupy countrywide sewage to discharge gross, 53.8% what amount to mark to discharge liquid waste to take papermaking industry discharge capacity only; And 30% what COD discharge capacity occupies countrywide COD to discharge gross.
Pollute the serious conventional technology that make a starch to cannot have gotten used to increasingly strict environmental protection to ask.
At present two kinds of burgeoning craft that make a starch can regard a tradition as the replace person of craft, it is biology makes oar way, 2 it is ultrasonic makes oar way.
Biology makes oar way, it is to use special bacterium to plant first (white corrupt bacterium, brown corrupt bacterium, soft corrupt bacterium) directional decompose Mu Sujie compose, again complementary with mechanical method or chemical method farther solution leaves a kind of of cellulose the rest of meanses that make a starch. The method is here medium, as a result of the existence of biology action, other just assist, the dosage that can reduce chemical greatly accordingly and subsequently and the waste liquid that come discharge, come true even " 0 discharge, free from contamination " target, be a kind relatively the environmental protection, clean method that make a starch.
Ultrasonic makes oar way is a kind of cavitation that is based on ultrasonic, machinery and fuel factor, in water photograph environment, action at fiber raw material, and complementary enhance effect of ultrasound with supersonic medium, the new-style pulp workmanship of the preparation of the pulp that finish. The method is here medium, the physical action that relies on ultrasonic generation completely makes a starch, because this does not need to add the chemical such as chloride, caustic soda, reduced pollution to discharge greatly. At the same time as a result of ultrasonic can charge a sex, can produce a variety of pulp that bleach whiteness according to need, implementation " one machine is tasted more " .
Biology makes oar law reduce contaminant to discharge considerably
Ultrasonic makes oar law come true " one machine is tasted more "
Two kinds of afore-mentioned methods carry opposite content technology and physical action cite, collective with a view to reduces the accretion of the chemical in the process that make a starch to use, reduce contaminant to discharge thereby, implementation green environmental protection makes a starch. Besides, these two kinds of methods still can use blame wood pulp to serve as raw material, and yielding pulp can reach the quality level that exceeds wood pulp even, if these two kinds make oar method be able to apply extensively, origin of raw material of great expansion pulp, solve the entrance with our country serious pulp to depend on.
At present these two kinds of methods did not realize industrialization application. Biology makes the biology bacterium that uses in oar law plant easy law of the oar that be made by invalidation of miscellaneous bacterium infection, ultrasonic needs to throw a large number of cost to purchase lag of level of fixed equipment, industrialization to wait. These problems, make oar craft is made won't appear to change greatly inside short time, but innovation of this kind of technology still is worth to pay close attention to highly. The development of industry of a pulp will be the assemble inside the industry that is core with making oar technology newly, comply with policy wind direction, enhance a technology innovation, solve an entrance to depend on, the core advantage that brings by new technology the core competition ability huge aggrandizement enterprise, promote a trade inside again assemble develops, consolidate enterprise bibcock position.