Snail, anxious future is perhaps the sky just the limit?

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Core viewpoint

. Will tell from old cycle, 10 years of one metempsychosis, commodity wave motion is bigger 2018, whether can the bovine city that commodity lasted nearly 3 years walk out of inflection point here? The individual thinks probability is bigger, advocate because still be building city,go weak, debt pressing muscularity and external environment pressure are greater.

. Whorl futures holiday is broken through 4200 hind rapid fall after a rise, today (on November 6) it is to drop more defeat the psychology of 4000, drop the trend is very fluent, this explains futures does not have logic of merchandise on hand, later period shrinks base poor big probability is merchandise on hand relies on futures.

. If carry out Xian Jianxian to enter,produce can, tear open again old produce can, this is less than the market to anticipate far to the influence of coke.

Detailed content

View a group of data first: China dimensions above was versed in in September estate company profit compared to the same period 4.1% , refresh since March 2018 new low, be worth before 9.2% . Profit of company of industry of above of dimensions of Chinese 1-9 month grows 14.7% compared to the same period, the value increases 16.2% before. Among them, coal mine and total of washing industry profit grow 14.5% compared to the same period, oil and industry of natural gas exploitation grow 4 times, farming industry of deputy food treatment grows 2.3% , textile grows 2.7% , fuel of etc of oil, coal machines course of study to grow 30.8% , chemical raw material and chemical products manufacturing industry grow 24.5% , line of business of metalloid mineral products grows 44.9% , black metal smelt and pressure delay treatment industry to grow 71.1% . In other words, upper reaches is occupied 7 into profit. Supply side + the assorted fist of environmental protection achieved perfection to profit move, limit action is in abate. The speech of national leader, give civilian battalion enterprise a sth capable of comforting sb, existing profit may need to allocate anew.

Will tell from old cycle, 10 years of one metempsychosis, commodity wave motion is bigger 2018, whether can the bovine city that commodity lasted nearly 3 years walk out of inflection point here? The individual thinks probability is bigger, advocate because still be building city,go weak, debt pressing muscularity and external environment pressure are greater.

In August the middle ten days of a month, city of Hong Kong Central Plains precedes the index takes the lead in losing, from highest 188.4 fall after a rise come 184.77. Home " Jin Jiuyin 10 " not as scheduled and to, clinch a deal to shrink quickly instead quantity. National Day grows a holiday, heavy goods goes situation appear to split up badly, can change with what crude oil heads enter passageway of be issued to lower levels; With the black profit from that whorl, coke heads main area is propped up hard as before. My individual slants pessimistic, think the inflection point of commodity had appeared, the likelihood with main nice area defies drop a few.

What near future goods goes is main area and macroscopical rich play chess. To whorl, coke I raised a few questions, want to communicate with everybody.

Say whorl first. One is to force storehouse problem, one is the problem that the whorl of the winter spends the New Year where.

1, the situation with current whorl is small stock, deep agio, in do not look to give any issues on view. Brunt agreement holds a storehouse to make an appointment with 2.83 million hand, in whorl the regulation of new bid falls, force the storehouse is really feasible, as time elapse, force below existing pattern storehouse the dominant position is larger, this also is bull trade logistic. As to force do not force, specific how to walk along need edge to walk along an edge to see edge analysis. Those who need an attention is, futures holiday is broken through 4200 hind rapid fall after a rise, today (on November 6) it is to drop more defeat the psychology of 4000, drop the trend is very fluent, this explains futures does not have logic of merchandise on hand, later period shrinks base poor big probability is merchandise on hand relies on futures.

2, the whorl in in the winter spends the New Year where, it is a winter in other words store. Still remember last year be restricted to produce? Be over too year those who receive authority is day of quantity inventory, I want to be met only this year more. It is on one hand, environmental protection is restricted to produce prohibit " one knife is cut " , this meeting brings not small increment. Productivity of wrong peak of season steely industry spends the 2018-2019 Qiu Dong that Tang Shan city announces today to anticipate badly not as good as, this also is to bring about whorl to defeat main reason. And fall in usury embellish, environmental protection equipment cannot spend a few money, can say can of start working basically environmental protection amounts to mark. It is the increment that electric stove brings on the other hand. According to Mysteel beforehand electric stove of appraise whole nation is produced can be in 140 million tons about, electric stove has profit very considerable also. Finally is demand seasonal abate brought increment. The winter last year store cost is in 3800-3900, want to start a winter store, cost must fall trafficker psychology price. Although with 4000 will calculate merchandise on hand to still have 600-800 space. Otherwise, want to consider whorl where to spent the New Year really.

Say coke besides. One is " the price, where should you go to? " , one is rice and policy of 4.3 the following Jiao Lu.

Coke resembles a fire in in the winter, according to warmed heart nest of black. 3 rounds carry go up, in an instant fast innovation is tall, have say of on 3000, also have those who say the likelihood drops suddenly, specific how to go we am put first at the same time. How do I want to talk about this bureau to solve with everybody? Above all, I show a point of view: Main area what changes, so, ha.

Coke has situation: Deep agio, small stock. Total stock is small, cooking factory stock is smaller, but factory of Yu Gang of inventory structure benefit, trafficker altitude deeply cold, to the price the limit that prop up is in abate. On the weekend, some steelworks carries Hua Dong continuously go up two rounds, individual understanding falls for small stock setting, steelworks to fill smoothly library, undertake filling going up to the demand a low price of early days, fair and reasonable. OK and clear is to have pattern to fall, merchandise on hand rises further need inventory is reduced further come cooperate or other external cause causes supply fault to match. Look at present, the possibility that the fault matchs to cause qualitative change is lesser. Below the setting that becomes a useful person to lose, the individual thinks steelworks won't move a brick to cooking factory, colliding to appearing at high price is inevitable. Of course, cooking factory says him have the initiative counterpoises " order platoon arrives after a month, or else is bought do not have goods " . Have a doubt, below so high profit, steelworks can increase production, cooking factory why cannot, existing small stock is cooking factory nevertheless be restricted to produce ahead of schedule cause. Have big gap really, merchandise on hand also is not to play a way, at least trafficker does not have goods of large-scale store up.

As to the Jiao Lu that washs out 4.3 meters to run above 10 years below, this story may say period of time even. Newest statistic is produced can control in 250 million tons probably, according to finish before 2020 produce can be exited or displacement works, affect to the industry apparently great. On face of this kind of paper can the breach of numerate, dish the face comes out without expression. Material effect needs to dog to wash out plan and Jiao Lusheng actually to produce the order of the enterprise and profit.

If carry out Xian Jianxian to enter,produce can, tear open again old produce can, this is less than the market to anticipate far to the influence of coke.