Coal price whether anabiosis need to look supply contractive

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Enter in November after heating season, domestic coal price did not appear clear improvement. Dynamical coal futures and concussion of narrow cut of agreement of brunt of futures of cooking coal coke, price heart is total fall somewhat move. Come as heating busy season, coal board piece whether changeover slants structure of weak supply and demand, "Amaze the people with a single brilliant feat " walk out of bull prices?

Dynamical coal puts risk of be issued to lower levels

Dynamical coal respect, according to the report, the branch parts to hold entrance coal meeting in Jiangsu and Guangzhou related 14-15 day, put forward to be in this year before the end of the year, arrange entrance coal basically to connect no longer close. Suffer this message effect, price of contract of brunt of dynamical coal futures stops drop rise. Last week, annulus of bad news of day of 6 big report is compared rise 0.59% , with photograph of the corresponding period was compared last year still drop 11.81% , predicting later period drops as air temperature, hopeful of bad news of dynamical coal day increases, but suffer terminal inventory to be in perch, and downstream high cost can the industry is restricted to produce an effect, the demand that use phone goes up bear pressure. Consider at present dynamical coal price is in perch, coal price still is put in risk of be issued to lower levels. And in chronically produces those who lose to anticipate reach decrease duty to fall expenses effect, dynamical coal price goes strong hard.

Specific in light of, carriage respect, island of emperor of the Qin Dynasty came recently island of emperor of Guangzhou, the Qin Dynasty comes to Shanghai, south Africa China, Australia comes the course coal such as Qingdao all price all goes weak. Volume respect, day of railroad of harbor of island of emperor of the Qin Dynasty transfers into last week the volume is average five hundred and twenty-one thousand four hundred tons, zhou Zeng 2600 tons; Day handling capacity is average five hundred and two thousand nine hundred tons, decrease 11 thousand tons.

Power plant inventory is maintained involve litre of situation. Relevant data shows, up to last week, 6 generate electricity greatly group coal reserve 1, seven million four hundred and twenty-three thousand four hundred tons, zhou Zeng three hundred and sixty thousand nine hundred tons; Inventory can count 32.81 days with the day, zhou Zeng 0.49 days. In addition, coalhole of coking plant of steelworks of example of home of the corresponding period puts 8.762 million tons, zhou Zeng fifty-eight thousand four hundred tons; Coalhole of coking plant of independent cooking plant puts eight million five hundred and sixteen thousand eight hundred tons,

Downstream demand side, annulus of coal of power plant bad news increases than small. Data shows, up to last week, 6 generate electricity greatly group day all bad news coal 531 thousand tons, zhou Zeng 3100 tons, decrease compared to the same period 12.01% .

Double Jiao Lirun lasts bear pressure

Coking coal respect, longer since, expensive stock of overlay of be issued to lower levels of industrial chain profit, cooking coal price bear pressure. Main area is overall appear slant comfortable pattern. Stock of haven cooking coal rises last week 15.53% , be in the history position of relatively high level, stock of downstream terminal cooking coal is small also increase. Although enter heating season, cooking coal supply is tightened up somewhat, but because same reason is produced,can suffer considering downstream industry be restricted to bring about cooking coal demand to drop somewhat, and look from price logic, cooking coal profit suffers downstream coke and steely industry effect, at present profit of chain of anxious steel industry lasts be issued to lower levels. Because of price of this cooking coal bear press a situation to was not improved.

Coke respect, steel price be issued to lower levels and heating season are restricted to produce bring about downstream enterprise and apiration of goods of trafficker store up to drop, affect coke demand. Last week, haven stock goes now to fall, but stock of independent cooking plant rises, yield respect, output of coke of 230 cooking factory is little drop. On the whole, main area presents coke close balance position, industry profit is higher. As steelworks profit fast be issued to lower levels brings about steelworks to purchase apiration to drop, the influence that at the same time steelworks reduction of output brings to coke demand also remains to observe further, coke price is propped up change infirmly.

To hind city coal board piece investment opportunity, partial certificate business suggests, can continue to pay close attention to the coke industry opportunity that environmental protection element brings. At present coke price already was carried for many times go up, warm oneself season is restricted to produce limits escalate, go producing at the same time can hopeful of policy be born brings cooking industry long-term opportunity. Nevertheless, in steely industry profit fast be issued to lower levels is affected under, prospective double Jiao Lirun still lasts bear pressure. In addition, suffer the element effect such as expensive stock and environmental protection, dynamical coal demand or will " busy season not flourishing " .