International spec cash swarms into INE crude oil in long-te

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Zhou Si (on November 22) Chinese INE crude oil receives back 4 days continuously, touched near 440 yuan of a gleam of, a neutral still appears to slant to go for nothing short time situation.

Do not cross crude oil of the INE inside day drop had closed apparently narrow, at the same time long-dated curve did not change apparently, allude short-term goal to was not dropped by the near future the influence of situation, go for a long time in INE crude oil situation still neuter slants much.

What require an attention nevertheless is, because international casts machine money market to swarm into INE crude oil in great quantities, this may make the near future slants dish walk along situation concussion aggravate wholy, increase the market thereby trade risk.

Trade overview

Shanghai crude price drops. Brunt agreement SC1901, with 443.1 yuan / bucket closing quotation, drop 8.9 yuan, drop for 1.97% . Total contract clinchs a deal 529456 hands, the quantity that maintain a warehouse raises 2954 hands to 64476 hands. Brunt agreement clinchs a deal 515750 hands, the quantity that maintain a warehouse raises 2232 hands to 40752 hands.

Futures contract and become friendship condition general view

Current brunt contract is SC1901 agreement, add in a few days hold 2232 hands. Look from near future data, SC1812 agreement trades the quantity is already apparent close narrow, because draw near complete a business transaction, the warehouse that because this is partly quite,needs complete a business transaction is odd, investor needs to notice to leave in time.

At present of SC1903 agreement trade vivid jerk and clinch a deal the quantity exceeds SC1902 agreement apparently, if current trend lasts, mean the market to had be notted adjust reach the designated position, because close month agreement clinchs a deal,measure inadequacy, explain the market still supports distrustful attitude to sole of current oil price, short-term inside oil price still needs farther adjustment, just meet what occurrence concussion goes up go next situation.

Now of INE crude oil increase advantageous position average price is 444.6 yuan / bucket, than before one trade day drops 1.7 yuan.

Chicago moves earnest money on commercial bourse or cause international seize a chance to seek private gain cash swarms into INE crude oil

The message says, bourse of American Chicago commerce (CME) go up tone January 2019 bail of futures of NYMEX WTI crude oil 2.8% , to 3650 dollars / hand agreement, 3550 dollars are before this / hand agreement. Earnest money of futures of gasoline of NYMEX 12 month is moved on 2.4% , to 4300 dollars / hand agreement, 4200 dollars are before / hand agreement. Earnest money of futures of natural gas of terminal of Henry of NYMEX 12 month is moved on 21.3% , to 5700 dollars / hand agreement, 4700 dollars are before / hand agreement.

Generally speaking, tone bail is to control the market to pass big wave motion on, make partial storehouse odd at the same time from. As a result of deflection of current market sentiment at looking empty, as drop close somewhat narrow, predict one part empty sheet will gain profit from, drive oil price to rebound somewhat thereby.

Because this is bail of the attune on American market,do not pass, this may drive international to cast machine money market to swarm into futures of INE crude oil. In fact INE crude oil trades the quantity is achieved most active since appear on the market, very old rate may be international cash drive, because this near future requires close attention,INE crude oil maintains a warehouse the change of the state.

Near future market is bullish the mood picks up apparently, short-term goal is maintained as before be in 480 yuan around

From INE crude oil but in light of the crude spot price of complete a business transaction, short time all is maintained around 65 dollars, summary prep above Bulunte the quoted price with current crude oil, because of Asian demand still relatively active.

In light of specific quoted price, at present of Oman crude oil drop relatively lesser also, this also does amorous mood to pick up somewhat from what flank reflected Asian city market, short time appears limitative INE crude oil bigger drop.

In addition, as the elapse of time, of the market see amorous mood pick up apparently, especially the near future is added newly it is apparently good to hold a storehouse to see amorous cause in November the level when the middle ten days of a month, mean the market to had been digested somewhat to the state of near future supply exceeds demand.

Look nevertheless from the near future, maintain a warehouse all price just should appear to rise apparently to SC1904 agreement, hold firm at upper part of 480 yuan of short-term goals.

In light of long-dated curve, overall go situation still change not quite, at present accordingly oil price has had the sign with sure look forward to, this from now oil price also can see, the settle accounts price of INE crude oil only slightly under the settle accounts price yesterday.

Short-term and character, the crucial pressure of upper part still be 480 yuan or so, in touch this before, 467 yuan also are a stronger pressure.

Oil price of suggestion of American reserve data did not drop into unfavorable balance of trade interval, the focus still needs to pay close attention to OPEC the conference

The near future compares popular topic is inventory of American crude oil whether can still increase, announce as what EIA former oil depot puts, crude oil inventory of the United States came true 9 go up repeatedly, this makes oil price appeared bigger fall after a rise.

Nevertheless eye comes round to look, current oil price appears and did not drop the broken interval that prop up, can see from the graph, crude oil inventory of the United States is approaching the level November 2017 it seems that, in fact the oil price of the near future is almost with what keep balance at that time, this is why the market is in static wait for on December 6 the reason of agreement of OPEC reduction of output.

Because once OPEC decides reduction of output, the curve that so former oily inventory goes up may begin to change direction, return to afresh thereby at lower part of 5 years of average levels.

It is OK that at present the market thinks changeover this one curve goes up the method of situation is reduction of output 1.4 million pails / day upper part. But apply to quantity of sanded special local product considering the United States pressure, the possibility that predicts this one target is reached is not large, this may limit oil price go up.