Coke inventory inflection point already restricted an elemen

  • Dec, 04th 2018

(1) advocate accumulative total of price yield a division drops 450 yuan / or so tons

Steelworks profit glides quickly, steelworks upstream coke seeks profit, charcoal of the focus below the two accumulative total inside week purchases value 4 rounds, extent in all 450 yuan / ton.

(2) coke inventory still low

Coke demand glides somewhat, but stock keeps low.

Partial anxious look forward to is active shipment.

(3) circumstance of steelworks filling library puts delay

The price still has drop anticipate, steelworks control arrives circumstance, inventory amplitude is finite.

2.Collect of incident of next month drive

Data origin: Futures of Wind, one heart

Coke: Predict to drop accumulative total 600 or above, in the last ten-day of a month gradually look forward to is firm:

(1) steelworks continues upstream seeks profit, coke price still has drop space, later period drops speed depends on ability of rolled steel gain.

(2) profit of coke of Shanxi of predicting the middle ten days of a month is 0 it is even after losing, market presence cost is propped up, because this drops,extent still has 200-300 yuan / or so tons.

(3) upriver coal price drops difficulty is great, the space is little.

2, strategy and proposal

1.Coal summary

Coke inventory inflection point already showed, the element that restricts coke at present diverts downstream profit.

Profit of downstream rolled steel is atrophic, or continue to be conducted to raw material market, still had before the middle ten days of a month in December drop anticipate.

Data origin: Futures of steel couplet, one heart

2.Unilateral

Data origin: Futures of rich easy Great Master, one heart

3.1-5 price is poor

Data origin: Futures of Wind, one heart

4.Cooking profit reachs steelworks profit

Data origin: Futures of Wind, one heart

3, base difference and price are poor

1.Base poor

Data origin: Eminent achieves couplet of information, steel

2.Price difference

Haven profit restores somewhat, but drop below setting, trafficker does not have apiration of store up goods, continue to keep wait-and-see.

Data origin: Futures of steel couplet, one heart

4, monthly coke supply and demand

Condition of lunar end coke

(1) profit considerably atrophy is supplied keep exalted

Steelworks profit is atrophic, hit actively press cooking profit, the two profit inside week glide considerably, but still be over line of balance of profit and loss, predict short line is affected to enthusiasm of start working of anxious look forward to relatively finite.

Data origin: One heart futures

Data origin: Eminent achieves information since this month, the environmental protection pressure that coke market place faces increases somewhat, environmental protection of China north area is restricted to produce increase, furnace of stew of Xuzhou area anxious look forward to moves, coke supplies fall after a rise.

In the meantime, rate of downstream steelworks start working also is produced because of be restricted somewhat fall after a rise, change of structure of coke whole supply and demand is not big.

Data origin: Eminent achieves information one heart futures

(2) inventory whole be issued to lower levels

Data origin: Steel couplet, search anxious

(3) export increases somewhat but profit is scant

Data origin: Couplet of one heart futures, steel

Coke export gain is theoretic this month pick up somewhat, but will actually look, because merchandise on hand drops faster, the sky inside field has offer and lack clinchs a deal, individual haven exports a quantity to glide to be controlled to the half even, exchange views actually less, price theory is tall.

Data origin: Customs total office, search anxious

Coke collect harbor made an appointment with Dong Jia mouth November 430 thousand tons (relatively October - 20) , coke lading made an appointment with 400 thousand tons November (relatively in October - 8) , among them inside trade 220 thousand tons (relatively in October + 2) , foreign trade 180 thousand tons (relatively October - 10) .

Sunshine harbor November coke lading 890 thousand tons (relatively in October + 6) , among them inside trade 630 thousand tons (relatively in October + 7) , foreign trade 260 thousand tons (relatively in October - 1) .