The article is Chen Jinbo of author of A wave teahouse to be held in one heart futures " Jing flower is collected " on station of Hangzhou of black forum · with " coke market level was looked into 2019 " the speech summary that gives priority to a problem.
One, coke period showed prices to go 2018 situation review
1.Before spot market whole appeared 2018 low hind tall, concussion is broken through situation. 1-4 month price goes low to basically suffer heating season to be restricted to produce the effect after not do one's best and steelworks go back to work are delayed continuously; The main reason that rebound after May and keeps strong is to suffer cooking industry to upgrade, focus with steel " cooking changes for side " the influence that come on stage, xuzhou stops be restricted breach fails to fill on, fen short for Weihe River is seleted supply to increase scarcely determinism. Shanxi producing area leaves factory definitely annual all valence (end at present) make an appointment with 2050-2100, add compared to the same period 200 the left and right sides.
2.Tighten after the pine before annual supply and demand, overall balance. Environmental protection upgrades stage by stage, start working of independence anxious look forward to keeps exalted, steelworks takes cooking crop to drop somewhat oneself, blast furnace start working also is in perch, exit is added slightly; Steel Jiao Changxie is advanced, congenial share drops.
3.Coking coal supply and demand is balanced, local period of time slants close, the price is certain in have litre. Whole adds 50-100 compared to the same period into furnace coal cost, current Shanxi allows cost of one coke cleaned coal to make an appointment with 1300-1350, amount to ton anxious about 1750.
4.Before cooking profit low hind tall, predicting annual 300-400, add 100-150 left and right sides compared to the same period.
5.Futures goes situation besides 7, erupted in August outside prices, integral performance is average, major while is in concussion, period deviate from now serious. Annual all valence 2198 (advocate connect) , go up 137, amplitude 1010; Was 1929/461/1131 last year.
6.Annual appears 3 times better sell preserve a scope; Besides 1805, outside 1809 benefit, buy preserving a scope basically is from appraise value and agio angle set out.
2, 1901 coke period now base difference is evaluated
1.At present coke supply and demand is balanced basically, standard harbor allows one 2550-2600, 2700-2750 of only cost of amount to storehouse, dish face agio is made an appointment with 450, considering carry, winter store element, a few without set preserve a scope.
2.Not easy judgement drops a few rounds before the end of the year, continued to drop to be led probably in January. Receive excessive of damage of goods to be negative, size depends on dropped December extent, this also is nominal instigates reduce much psychological sharp weapon more.
3.Much army brunt is industrial team, capital of air force finance and industry follow suit possibility is large. Air force is overall air attack is procurable, active within one's grasp, but in press a root to had not wanted to cover the case that defend to fall how perfect escaping is a hotspot. In view of 1901 maintain a warehouse tremendous, big fight of complete a business transaction is full of be concerned about.
4.This round next killing, doubt is risk of financial capital systematization " the limit is chased after kill " , do not have with industrial logic, main area how old relation, merchandise on hand (and even fictitious merchandise on hand) apparent to developing sign of futures money market. Big fight of 01 complete a business transaction, meaning in layout 05.
3, coke market level was looked into 2019
1.Much grand view? Macroscopical pessimism waits for card bogus, collapse dish talk base oneself upon at the anarchism. Pessimism anticipates the likelihood is excessive overdraw (far month is whole black industry catenary is done deficit) , continue to sing empty essence to depend on serving for cash. 2019 risks variable comes from related the industry the air attack of policy fine tuning and macroscopical capital, and rather than is macroscopical itself.
2.Black changes for side continue to deepen. Steely " aircraft carrier " establish, cooking changes for side come on stage (the industry upgrades, focus with steel) , again integrated hopeful rolls out coal natural resources. Fault of supply and demand of coke phase sex matchs, supply slant close probability is bigger.
3.Coking coal supply and demand is balanced basically, local period of time appears with carriage insecurity because of safe environmental protection supply slant close, cost of coke raw material is small rise. Railroad of group of cooking coal of new year Shanxi is long assist valence and Hua Dongguo have price of big mine quarter to predict to rise 50-100, laid cornerstone of cost of coke raw material.
4.Exorbitant likelihood causes black industry gain take seriously, steelworks profit is compressed progressively upstream conducts probability bigger. But correction way existence is not affirmatory, the effect remains to observe.
5.Cleaned coal cost is propped up, steely profit (cut) conduct, the join forces that the industry upgrades, predict level of coke price centre of gravity, gain is entire 2019 body and kept balance 2018, heating season is finished with 2 quarters low after adjusting, second half of the year is moved toward again strong.
6.Coke will be 2019 provide an imagination most space and make variety of charm of much first selection, trend sex and fluctuant opportunity coexist. 1905 after making brunt agreement, merchandise on hand predicts to run interval 2600-2000 (2750-2150 of only cost of amount to storehouse) .