Be worth steelworks winter store how will be advent coke gut

  • Dec, 04th 2018

Zhang Yang is foreign | Hua An futures is finite liability company analyst

Research breed has point to, coal of whorl steel, iron ore, cooking coal, coke, motivation, natural balata, , be engaged in the design of period authority outside field and wind accusing at the same time, have original understanding to macroscopical economy and commodity futures.

Core viewpoint

. Whorl steel merchandise on hand relatively dropped considerably ahead of schedule last year, steelworks winter store prices labor force is waited for hair, whorl steel drops the space is not large, space of steelworks profit systole is limited, this also will bring about steelworks to be maintained to coke just needed to purchase, filling library demand still is put.

. Be in superintend and director of environmental protection of the 3rd phase to check at present, policy of each province environmental protection will be progressively be born, blast furnace start working leads hopeful to glide, coke supply promotes considerably hard, hopeful of predicting coke supply and demand is in level sex to be balanced infirmly, the near future is in 2200-2450 interval concussion. Long term can be in 2200 much sheet.

Detailed content

One, in November prices reviewing

Enter November, coke futures brunt pours fast fall after a rise through two, end on November 22, rush 2440 a little bit on apogee, nadir 2200 bits, at present coke walks along the core logic of situation still is environmental protection is restricted to produce, be in environmental protection superintend and director to check the 3rd level currently, be in downstream steelworks winter at the same time store during coming, in photograph of profit of merchandise on hand of steel of downstream steelworks whorl relatively glided considerably ahead of schedule last year below setting, steelworks undertakes the first round carrying falling to coke spot price, and carry fall limits escalate, does coke come what course to follow? Our observation discovers at present coke is to be in base the process of poor rehabilitate, coke merchandise on hand inside year be in 2800 a little bit high newly, carry fall 100 a little bit to be in 2700 a little bit around, at present coke futures is controlled at 2250 o'clock, base difference is bigger still, go according to in former years situation, coke merchandise on hand is progressively fall after a rise, futures is in interval concussion, happen to have the same view with present coke market, we predict in price of upriver cooking coal strong background falls, coke price centre carries gradually litre, space of coke lower part is limited, but drop considerably in steel of downstream steelworks whorl contractive setting leaves steelworks profit, aggravate of play chess of anxious steel rich, the anxious look forward to of bargain authority prep above of steelworks, space of coke upper part is limited, near future of the coke on put together is in 2200-2450 interval concussion.

1. steelworks winter store forthcoming, environmental protection is restricted to produce when undertaking

According to national statistic bureau, output of crude steel monthly blazed new trails again October tall, the whole nation and crop of crude steel of key steel look forward to were added in October fast rise to respectively 9.1% , 7.3% , consumption of crude steel apparent is added fast 14.4% , go up along with crop synchronism, rate of start working of each weeks of blast furnace all is worth also relatively picked up apparently in September, limit of environmental protection policy loosens next offerring, need to all be improved somewhat. But be in according to crop of crude steel of in former years in November, crop can glide considerably in December, at the same time line snail purchases a quantity to also be met seasonal glide, supply and demand of predicting future crude steel double be in close balance infirmly, current whorl steel spot price photograph relatively had shifted to an earlier date last year considerably be issued to lower levels, steelworks winter store on the verge of breaking out, in steelworks winter store below setting, whorl steel spot price drops the space is not large, and in at present steelworks profit falls pair of raw material end to purchase enthusiasm general, maintain just needed to purchase.

We know 2016 is reform of colliery supply side, 2017 is steely bar iron going to the ground, environmental protection was restricted to produce good year 2018, 16 years profit is the biggest is a colliery, 17 years profit is the biggest is steely, the cooking industry with 18 years of the biggest profit, environmental protection is restricted to produce is dominant this year the core driving force of cooking industry, look from crop, blue sky guarded battle to affect coke to produce 2018 can be last year 2.1 times, it is thus clear that environmental protection is restricted to produce the broaden the scope of policy and normalization this year, entered four quarters author to sum up autumn winter season the act that each area environmental protection is restricted to produce, main concentration reachs area of area of Campagna of short for Weihe River of circumjacent, Fen, long triangle in Beijing ferry look forward to.

1.Zoology environment ministry is released " Beijing ferry look forward to and Nian Qiudong of circumjacent area 2018-2019 air pollution administers season integratedly program of action of assault fortified positions " , action program puts forward to execute a difference to turn wrong peak production, forbidden adopt " one knife is cut " means. Each district key is right steely, building materials, cooking, cast, the course of study of tall platoon discharged such as coloured, chemical industry, period fault peak produces executive heating; Quality of ambient air of heating period monthly forecasts the basis forecast result, can shorten appropriately or lengthen wrong peak to produce time. Hall of Heibei province environmental protection is released " difference of season of Qiu Dong of industry of Heibei province key changes wrong peak to produce performance to evaluate directive opinion " , index basically divides the poor dissimilation that its the part of the body cavity between the diaphragm and the umbilicus housing the spleen changes an industry to put type of Jiao Fang of level, extinguish, carriage structure for the platoon 3 respects.

A kind: Finish super- low discharge transform and through checking and accept, all contaminant stability achieves province air to do " about print and distribute; ; Deepness of power plant of Heibei province iron and steel, cooking, coal fired reduces a program of assault fortified positions; ; " in the regulation is restricted to be worth; Extinguish anxious means is dry extinguish anxious; Railroad carriage scale is achieved 60% reach above (or car of new energy resources, country 5 reach scale of above standard motor transportation to achieve 100% ) . Achieve the Jiao Lu of this kinds of target, do not grant wrong peak.

B kind: Half-baked super- low discharge transform, all contaminant stability is achieved " pollutant discharge standard of industry of coking plant chemistry " air pollution other people is special discharge be restricted to be worth; Extinguish anxious means is dry extinguish anxious or airtight wet extinguish is anxious (do not risk extinguish anxious vapour) ; Railroad carriage scale is achieved 30% reach above (or car of new energy resources, country 5 reach scale of above standard motor transportation to achieve 80% reach above) . Achieve the Jiao Lu of this kinds of target, lengthen what the means that install coal installs for the top into anxious time to 24 hours; Lengthen what the means that install coal installs for side into anxious time to 28 hours.

C kind: Did not achieve A, B kind standard Jiao Lu, lengthen into anxious time to 36 hours.

2." air pollution of Henan province 2018-2019 administers program of action of assault fortified positions integratedly " , to the end of 2018, save fine grained content completely (PM2.5) year all chroma achieves 63 microgramme / stere is the following, on October 1, 2018 - on March 31, 2019, save fine grained content completely (PM2.5) average concentration drops compared to the same period 13.8% .

3." air pollution administers Nian Qiudong season of 2018-2019 of Campagna of Fen short for Weihe River integratedly program of action of assault fortified positions (ask for an opinion to stalk of grain) " target, this year fine grained of Campagna of short for Weihe River of Fen of Qiu Dong season content (PM2.5) average concentration drops compared to the same period 6% the left and right sides, spend again reach above to pollute day of number to decrease compared to the same period 6% the left and right sides. " 2018-2019 of the city that face Fen year business of heating season industry and difference of building construction building site change wrong peak to produce program " release, stalk of grain according to seeking an opinion, cooking enterprise cent is ABCD4 kind, among them A kind do not grant wrong peak is restricted to produce, b kind knot anxious time is lengthened to 36 hours, c kind knot anxious time is lengthened to 48 hours, d kind give stop production. " Shaanxi province is ironhanded treat haze to hit win blue sky to guard battle 3 years action program (2018-2020 year) (modification edition) " , area of the central Shaanxi plain is prevented in the winter during (came on November 15 second year on March 15) , steely, cast, production of wrong peak of executive share of industry of cooking, chemical industry, coloured, steely, cast an industry to produce can be restricted to produce 30% the left and right sides, produce ability plan in order to set family planning. Cooking enterprise is restricted to produce 30% the left and right sides, give anxious time to lengthen to 36 hours of above.

4." air pollution administers Nian Qiudong season of 2018-2019 of long triangle area integratedly program of action of assault fortified positions (ask for an opinion to stalk of grain) " release, stalk of grain according to the opinion, the empty temperamental quantity of 2019-2019 Nian Qiudong season improves a target is Qiu Dong during season (came on October 1, 2018 on March 31, 2019) , average concentration of PM2.5 of long triangle area drops compared to the same period 5% the left and right sides, spend again reach above to pollute day of number to decrease compared to the same period 5% the left and right sides. Jiangsu province is released " the announcement that about Nian Qiudong of work out 2018-2019 Ji Cuo peak produces program " , put forward chroma of PM2.5 of Qiu Dong season exceeded 60 microgramme 2018 / the city of stere (Xuzhou, Changzhou, the Huaihe River is installed, city of city of Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, peaceful, Su Qian) , the key decreases a 50% above on the foundation that industry business should discharge in existing pollution; 2018 chroma of PM2.5 of Qiu Dong season under 60 microgramme / the city of stere (city of harbor of Nanjing, Suzhou, Nantong, Lian Yun, salt) , the key decreases a 30% above on the foundation that industry business should discharge in existing pollution.

From the supply of coke end looks: Divisional region looks, from Zhou Du data can see, factory of domestic independent cooking (100) northeast district go into operation is led 93.62% , go into operation of China north district is led 76.06% , northwest district go into operation is led 85.07% , china in district go into operation is led 81.04% , , district go into operation leads Huadongde 71.94% , southwest start working is led 78.67% ; Cent is produced can look, domestic cooking enterprise (100) produce can; ; 1 million tons of start working are led 75.45% , produce can 10 thousand tons of start working lead 100-200 75.08% , produce can; ; 2 million tons of start working are led 77.91% , it is thus clear that anxious furnace start working is led relatively before the value all falls somewhat, but be in the high point since August, supply of coke of visible near future picks up somewhat, as the progressively be born that next the 3rd round of environmental protection is restricted to produce move, coke supply promotes considerably hard.

Common stock is the result that rich of both sides of supply and demand weichis, the trends of reaction supply demand relations and direction. We look from the inventory end of coke: At present coke haven inventory has the sign that picks up stage by stage, specific for haven coke inventory 2.685 million tons, harbor of its culmination ferry 520 thousand tons, the harbor that connect the cloud 75 thousand tons, sunshine harbor 1.03 million tons, qingdao harbor 1.06 million tons, steelworks coke inventory is in low, specific for domestic example steelworks (110) coke inventory four million two hundred and seventeen thousand seven hundred tons (- 1.27) , average and usable day counts 13.67 days, cooking plant inventory still is in inferior, case of shipment of anxious look forward to is good, factory of domestic example cooking (100) coke inventory 172 thousand tons (+ 1.3) . Above data reachs inventory of steelworks, anxious look forward to is relatively inferior, haven inventory has small to pick up evidence, the total reserve of coke is in supply and demand to balance level infirmly, and be in superintend and director of environmental protection of the 3rd phase to check at present, policy of environmental protection of each province city will be progressively be born, coke supply promotes considerably hard, at the same time as whorl steel merchandise on hand relatively dropped considerably last year steelworks winter store prices is forthcoming, whorl steel drops the space is not large, space of steelworks profit systole is limited, this also will bring about steelworks to be maintained to raw material end just needed to purchase, at the appointed time hopeful of coke supply and demand maintains supply and demand to balance level infirmly, look forward to of concussion of coke price hopeful is firm

Start working of 2 blast furnace leads hopeful to glide, go before coke encourage

Fall in market economy mechanism commonly, the fountainhead that economy disturbs is demand, demand drive price and profit, profit again drive furnishs, and the demand that to the demand of coke we basically pay close attention to downstream steelworks namely rate of blast furnace start working, lead seasonal graph discovery from start working of countrywide blast furnace, start working rate was restricted to produce an ingredient as a result of environmental protection 2018 under in front a few years, winter of steelworks of main to rate of start working of near future blast furnace attention store filling library demand and the 3rd phase saves city environmental protection to be restricted to produce policy be born each. Brunt of dish of our rough coke of side gain = that calculated coke contract price - price of contract of brunt of 1.3* cooking coal, discover coke dish side gain and coke go situation roughly hasten is the same as, coke dish side gain has been returned controlled coke July dish side gain, price of the coke below the setting that moves on whole of centre of cooking coal cost drops the space is not large, overall for at present coke dish side gain although somewhat fall after a rise but still be in the history opposite perch, predicting near future is in steelworks winter store when advent and hopeful of rate of start working of steelworks blast furnace glides below, coke supply and demand is in weak balance.

2, the market is looked into with investment

As whorl steel merchandise on hand relatively dropped considerably ahead of schedule last year steelworks winter store prices is forthcoming, whorl steel drops the space is not large, space of steelworks profit systole is limited, this also will bring about steelworks to be maintained to coke just needed to purchase, filling library demand still is put, be in superintend and director of environmental protection of the 3rd phase to check at present, policy of each province environmental protection will be progressively be born, blast furnace start working leads hopeful to glide, coke supply promotes considerably hard, hopeful of predicting coke supply and demand is in level sex to be balanced infirmly, did not come in 2200-2450 interval concussion.