Northeast ran twice to see corn during buying season. The middle ten days of a month saw northeast new food buy a situation in October, just treated the stock up condition of company of northeast deep treatment in November. Carry survey, see goods state of mind mixes state of mind of stock up of the plan receiving food this year, enterprise, trafficker store up to had last year very big different. Additional, african swine fever is in ceaselessly during survey diffuse, bring about the market to anticipate pessimism to demand of corn of next year feed.
Two things overlay is together, changed corn prices to rise in price originally rhythm.
Because northeast receives grain to delay second half,predict originally month, the farmer before the Spring Festival can center shipment to pound spot price, cause the price first small drop; Meeting resembling is same last year after fastigium receiving food, the enterprise centers stock up to purchase, trafficker is bullish store up goods, pull the prices of merchandise on hand that moves a 200 dot above thereby. And the condition synchronism that futures carries current and long-dated high premium rises.
Look big now probability won't be such. The merchandise on hand before estimating the Spring Festival is met strong delay goes up, but go up finite, cannot see last year 300 bits of in that way spaces, and next year 4, spots is potential in May open drops trend. The high premium of far month can become very flabby calm, anticipate in the pessimism of feed and sway between logic of breach of integral supply and demand, if the mood is pessimistic overlay 09 agreement dish the face stops caustic, limiting value may hit difference of 5-9 contract price to approach smooth water.
Specific logic is such:
One, long-dated anticipate the decision rises for a long time trend, change of short-term supply and demand decides prices rhythm
This piece is corn merchandise on hand take situation picture.
Begin from 2017, corn enters the trend passageway that rises for a long time.
Because the demand increment of deep treatment company is very much, the breach that goes exposing after inventory, buy valence to rise through new food, face store sale price rises, goods of trafficker store up is abet the joint action of these a few mechanisms, corn price is carried to rise by ceaseless upgrade. And go up in rhythm, face store come every year from 4-5 month sale in October, new food was beginning to supply in October, this paragraph of time is supplied enough, the price goes smooth or progressively fall after a rise. To November new food of the middle ten days of a month appears on the market after fastigium, supply discharge to begin fall after a rise, and downstream feed and deep treatment company shift to an earlier date to come to the Spring Festival face store the supply before period begin to center stock up, trafficker is based on rise in price expect money of synchronous store up, demand discharge and supply discharge pull open difference, the price arrives from November second year it is to rise normally between 3-4 month.
This is the rhythm that goes two years, the situation is different this year.
2, after a system of fixed quotas for grain production, commerce structure decides short-term supply and demand
This year after a system of fixed quotas for grain production, process a business farmer, greatly + state of mind of downstream enterprise, feed business, trafficker, option market, with all possible means rich play chess decides short-term supply and demand changes jointly.
See annual end first:
The case is simple last year. Suppress price furnishs before November, downstream enterprise begins stock up by November, option market is right long-dated rise in price anticipate arouse goods of trafficker store up, rise in price 300 a little bit. Until face store shifted to an earlier date April a month leaves pat, trafficker is forced shipment, rise prices just reverses.
Again comparative this year: The biggest variable is the market above all rise in price anticipate permeate farmer, cause the state of mind that hold out valence serious, make the rate of progress receiving food after already was being delayed originally more slow thereby, the price is at the beginning of October begin boundless to rise.
This changed the structure of rich play chess between commerce, make a case complex this year, variable is much.
Of farmer hold out valence to let produce area and port area price to be hanged, trafficker not dare rushed store up grain. Although deep treatment company still does not receive food at high price.
In the in-house Bo Yizhong of China north, manufacturer buys valence to had carried do not have advantageous embellish quickly, because northeast company profit is sufficient, cannot be opposite downstream shift cost. Capacity of stock of China north company is insufficient, adscititious do not close to go up grain, the auction grain before can leaning only keeps production, have 7-10 day stock generally only, cannot add valence to receive corn considerably again, can be forced to reduce start working to lead only. So China north buys valence and port area price because of the callback when start working ratio is short exalted concussion goes low now.
Case of northeast built-in gain play chess is similar, degree is more acuteness. Deep treatment manufacturer with the price was being moved one round on classics, new food still is equal to be measured at doing not have at present. Because trafficker produces area port area to be hanged, dare not store up grain at high price, more than 9 Chengdu are in new food farming on a famous player.
Northeastern look with the Bo Yilai between China north market, northeast company stock is enough, especially the stock of large company is enough, have 2-3 auction grain of the month is usable, do not wish to rise again before inventory is used up buy price. And stock of China north company is in an emergency. If be in,China north start working led the last ten-day of a month in December glide serious, may force accept downstream rise in price, carry sublimate north start working to lead thereby, and northeast price receiving food. But before accepting desire apparently to rising in price downstream, northeast enterprise carries generally hard litre buy price, this squelched again of corn price and new food buy an amount, hit thereby control rate of China north start working.
Between these two area with all possible means rich play chess is in at present stalemate, among them farmer end is most strong, downstream enterprise still has profit because of northeast area, bargain capability is relatively strong also; Northeast enterprise still has active right amply because of inventory, china north enterprise is most passive. Trafficker has normal commerce portfolio only because of avoid risk, not large-scale participate in store up goods, be eliminated basically to be besides rich play chess. The inventory that auctions grain as northeast enterprise is used up gradually, those who estimate two areas buy valence to still can raise price again, force port area is mixed thereby accept downstream rise in price.
3, the pessimism of corn demand anticipates feed to affect forward contract premium through the mood
Still be this piece of graph, will see south sell the case of the area again.
Because corn is put in what rise in price to anticipate, the average stock of southern feed business is compared the corresponding period is a few higher last year. And inventory of south port area lies the position with the most exalted history, reaction gives southern demand low confuse the possibility that shifts to an earlier date with stock up rhythm.
In actual consumptive end, of swine fever spread although the influence of pair of instantly feed demand is not big, but the glides to anticipate to long-dated demand considerably effect that next year amount of livestock on hand measures is more serious still. These days 09 agreement are gotten drop corn dish face, also from flank confirm of the market be anxious.
Dish on the face, if the mood is pessimistic overlay 09 agreement dish the face stops caustic, limiting value may hit difference of 5-9 contract price to approach smooth water. And when arriving, long-dated price drops to be able to let the market affirm the pessimistic logic of swine fever is correct conversely again, squelch thereby long-dated premium range.
Below the premise after carry out grain is pushed considerably this year, 4-5 month is likely overlay new food and face store the supply height of grain, cause boundless to rise to drop quickly to exalted spot price. When arriving, had taken weak forward contract originally, whether can affect the state of mind of grain of carry out of name of next year farming, help price of grain of low carry out in 4-5 month thereby, hit further through close month agreement conversely control far month price, this also is a variable of prices rhythm, remain to observe.
As a whole, because merchandise on hand goes up first before big probability Spring Festival, drop after Spring Festival hind, predict 01 agreement are the strongest, delay goes up or keep balance all the time complete a business transaction. After 05 agreement go up first, drop, but rise because of merchandise on hand boundless, existed again in April bigger drop anticipate, rise extent and premium range are restricted possibly. And the premium circumstance of 09 agreement, can be in again long-dated supply breach and feed consumption pessimism to anticipate between swing, aggravate is not stable.
What rise in price in whole this year corn is various Bo Yizhong, of the high premium of futures is corresponding new food tall buy price, the spec just just is done not have with the industry too golden eggs, acquire an interest the biggest is a farmer. This circumstance altered prices rhythm, squashed prices space and industrial profit, but the value that achieved futures discovers a function, letting benefit give a peasant also is should.
The individual is politic:
Because do, is much breed, basically seek space of tall safe limit, strong trend, big prices, so the strategy of corn is awaiting next year surely the merchandise on hand in year answers the opportunity with not high premium of backward, forward contract to do much. Prices space compared to the same period end merchandise on hand went 2017 situation, look 300 a little bit first.
Breach of supply and demand of next year second half of the year draws near when exposing, when does merchandise on hand open those who go up to observe the market carries requirement to feed even to anticipate, with the stock up state of mind of trafficker and deep treatment company. And the market expresses existence evenly to the supply and demand of corn very big difference, breach of true supply and demand has after all how old, still need to get affirming finally on spot market. The directest dog index is to face store on sale clinchs a deal rate. Of next year clinch a deal once rate is in a certain when the dot appears the perch of 100% and keep period of time, big probability merchandise on hand can begin to enter rise in price periodic. When arriving, if the premium of far month agreement is affected to squelch by swine fever, will be superexcellent make point of a long time.
Analyse here first to the judgement of rhythm, if next year second half of the year has make machine of a long time suitably, will see demand be replaced how to decide prices coping again.
If follow-up circumstance has metabolic readjust.