From the point of new year supply and demand, center of national grain oily information predicted corn sowed an area to be 42.3 million hectare 2018 November, decrease a 0.23% ; Predicting corn crop is 259.2 million tons, amplitude 0.05% . Total consumption of year of corn of 2018/19 year our country is 293 million tons, than going up year increases 15.03 million tons, amplitude 5.4% . Corn crop keeps balance to be added slightly, consumptive demand continues to increase, market of corn of predicting 2018/19 year loses balance to continue to expand, in those days balance is - 30.72 million tons, negative balance relatively on year enlarge 15.36 million tons. Old grain respect, faced accumulative total of Chu Yu rice to clinch a deal 2018 the quantity amounts to 100 million tons, predict to face quantity of carry forward of Chu Yu rice to amount to many tons 4000, of huge amount face store inventory turns into but current inventory, many carry forward mixes the demand space of extruding new food the price of later period. Go inventory is accelerated stage by stage, pattern of supply and demand is improved continuously, this year is supplied overall and abundant, change of achieve of Dan Bo Duan Jie is bigger, amplitude is apparent prep above last year.
The element such as cost allowance brings mood of intense cherish carry out
Above all, we time axis forth rub one's palm along smooth out with the fingers one rub one's palm along smooth out with the fingers. Before corn sows this year, be the cost that lease the land above all by of attention climb considerably litre, main as a result of corn price rise considerably, difference of the northeast cost that lease the land goes up do not be in more 30% the left and right sides, add chemical fertilizer to wait farming endowment also have bigger, conservative in light of, those who grow cost rise will make corn cost rises 0.1 yuan / jin. From the back, suffer trade problem effect, the country is urgent the policy that publishs enlarge big soja to grow corn, corn allowance falls 100 yuan / or so mus, soja allowance raises 200 yuan / mu, cause the market from this to corn acreage considerably reductive anticipates, survey discovers later, spring ploughing of the equipment when coming out as a result of policy already ended, grow corn profit taller, the area of replant soja is actual not quite. But subsequently as a result of advocate produce an area to encounter one after another spring influence of drought, high temperature, per unit area yield drops anticipate thicker, area and per unit area yield all drop a hype that caused the market. From the graph 1 can see, since this year March, jilin western, ministry of Liaoning northwest ministry, southwest of Heilongjiang pine tender Campagna, Inner Mongolia promotes precipitation of An Mengdong south to slant little 3 ～ 8 into. As a result of spring drought brings about spring sowing suffocate suffocate to sow evening, the part already sowed Tian Kuai to be short of a seedling to break ridge in a field, emergence rate is low, circumstance of later period fill the gaps with seedlings is more, the result that brings about finally is corn is reaped defer apparently, in autumn survey, ministry of southwest of loose tender Campagna suffers really spring drought impact is bigger, survey dot slants generally evening arrives 10 days half month. Before results, the market is adverse to area and weather brought reduction in production anticipates thicker, but later period the development as survey, reduction of output is affected under anticipate, countrywide crop is main relatively kept balance to be added slightly even last year, but amplitude is finite, main profit from advocate produce a division especially of Heilongjiang area increase. But actually the reaction in farmer is, per unit area yield of northeast not little section sufferred weather to decrease really, take no account of area circumstance to fall, brought straight impressions suffers is reduction of output, overlay cultivates cost to rise, sentiment of cherish carry out is stronger. And results slants to be brought about late this year on the volume is slow at anticipating, fault of level sex supply and demand deserves to make deep treatment company ceaseless rise buy the amount on valence stimulation, close late those who bring rose in price to accentuate actually the judgement of reduction of output, increased sentiment of cherish carry out. After that allowance of face Heilongjiang corn 25 yuan / mu (last year 133.46 yuan / mu) , allowance relatively low last year 100 multivariate, allowance decreases be equivalent to accrual reducing about 0.1 yuan / jin, of allowance lower the price in the heart that increased mood of farmer cherish carry out to also raise carry out food further, rough calculation, cost rises 0.1 yuan / jin, allowance reduces 0.1 yuan / jin, this is equivalent to carry out grain must be being compared 0.2 yuan tall last year / jin, also namely 400 yuan / ton, ability is obtained and similar last year gains. If change green ridge Long Feng in order to peaceful last year low 1400 yuan / ton in light of, sell grain to achieve 1800 yuan this year / ton or will mix price level is about the same last year, the farmer that before this is mixed, understands 0.9 yuan / jin psychological price is relatively adjacent, see Long Feng buy price at present or still have particular rise space. And this price convert predicts to be in 1950 yuan to the price of boreal harbor / ton up and down, whether this price meets later period is level sex high point is worth to pay close attention to.
And end weekend, because Shandong is deep,odd car number already fell to inferior level, shandong enterprise buys price again large area carries valence to attract arrive, northeast arrives likewise insufficient, the price also is to go strong ceaselessly. Short-term produce an area to rise in price impetus drops hard, or further stimulation sells drop not to sell the mood that go up, the pressure of food of a carry out before anticipating medium new year's day is in for cost, crop and policy respect push the cherish that rise to carry out mood falls or will become not apparent this year, did not sell before New Year after all after still forring years, need continues from the back circumstance of the quantity on observation. But still have considering next year cast store anticipate, if still be mixed time is same this year, next year around may have in March cast store anticipate those who bring depreciate anticipate, if sell before New Year,press not quite, after year actually assemble more pressure, and gain profit the space is not large also, in January around or nod high to level sex in the future, more risk of in the future also is gathering. At present actually so price has compared respect of merchandise on hand appropriate cent batch sells stage by stage piece. Be in after all at present new food keeps balance, carry forward quantity is supplied below the circumstance greatly overall and abundant, breed downstream and stock of northeast deep treatment is relatively enough also, face store the normalization that retreats be sent on a diplomatic mission to get social expensive stock stage by stage, at present so many carry forward did not bring the concussion in anticipating, of apiration of goods of downstream store up increase force at present the price slants is strong move. On the other hand, from on the graph saves knot surplus to be able to see each, companion is produced as deep treatment can outspread, other area gap is bigger and bigger, northeast corn offers the throughout the country, focus of countrywide corn price will heighten after northeast rises in price. From Heilongjiang and Shandong deep treatment buys price difference to look, short-term shrink somewhat narrow, than last year the corresponding period is inferior also, main as a result of northeast rise continuously narrowed valence needs a space, trade margin is narrow block up northeast grain arrives, also can seal the callback space of China north at the same time, of course the mood of cherish carry out of dense of China north place also makes the price has bigger callback hard. Below influence of mood of cherish carry out, the price year ago predicts to will still slant strong move.
Swine fever and trade policy are caused long-dated and anxious, starch of the end of the year or have rebound
Early days suffers swine fever effect, countrywide live pig allocates and transport get great influence, current suffer be restricted to bring about appropriate live pig giving column to press column, especially v province, it is good to have certain interest to feed consumption so. The range is affected as swine fever from the back bigger and bigger, partial area publishs big pig to give column allowance, breed end to worry about a mood to warm up, give column to increase, a column of big pig increasing what consume to feed to decrease is get effect instantly, pig makings already had in November glide, live pig of drawing near of the end of the year gives column to also will increase. On the other hand, swine fever brings about young pig to decrease, long-dated demand will get bigger impact.
Import side near future often also has hearsay to pour out of, actually of more reaction is anxious to what long-dated entrance increases. What the near future causes attention is to Australia barley is turned over dumping and with Kazakstan Si Tan signs corn, barley to be defeated China quarantine requirement protocol. Add up to of barley of 2017/18 year home imports 8.13 million tons, australia barley imports 5.13 million tons, occupy than 63% . Entrance barley has about 3 million tons of beer to just needed, eliminate beer just needed (occupy than 3/8) conversion, year imports Australia raise to replace corn demand to make an appointment with 3.2 million tons with barley on, namely Australia does not import addition corn requirement to be in 3.2 million tons entirely (actual Australia raise is worth under this with barley scale) , this photograph that measure level is finite to be being affected in light of corn annual dosage. More important is corn and barley for cost difference looks, barley had not replaced an advantage, replace an influence finite. And Si Tanyu rice can export Kazakstan the volume is main negligible, barley can speak a volume entirely 2 million tons, the bay wheat that counters dumping impact to rushing to suffer hard is exported 5 million tons. This year entrance imports quota to had been released, later period can cause impact more see custom duty and price difference. Corn reachs substitute side or basically pay close attention to the United States, the main entrance country such as Australia policy changes. Additionally the near future is trade policy sensitive period, breed imports policy change circumstance related attention corn.
Deep treatment just switchs on the mobile phone before appearance rate is higher, starch comes basically to perch, alcohol switchs on the mobile phone to still have certain ascendant space, short-term change is not big, deep treatment is in more exuberant phase to corn demand. But will look with respect to starch, switch on the mobile phone ascendant space is not large, begin as season of China north heating, later period environmental protection or will switch on the mobile phone to starch cause certain effect. Additionally the last ten-day of a month in December also will start stock up of the end of the year downstream, such starch supply pressure in the last ten-day of a month in December or will reduce, demand increases. If be like in front pressure of saying food of the carry out year ago is not apparent, so continue to be propped up by force in cost of raw material of north of near future China, if can be received,go up the hype of later period environmental protection and stock up, amylaceous or it is certain to will have rebound space.
Overall and character, because cost is added, per unit area yield is decreased, the sentiment of bring about cherish carry out that results evening, allowance reduces or will continue to continue, the price that Shandong small stock brings is carried go up nonsked consolidated cherish makes work mood, and northeast rises in price heightened countrywide price focus, sell before New Year those who press is unidentified show or will make corn merchandise on hand will still be maintained strong, period price slants powerful pattern stuff will continue, what far month imports to wanting sue for peace is anxious, make period price performance is close strong far weak, because be made newly,add overlay carry forward slightly bigger, overall supply abundant, short-term it is certain to have merchandise on hand rises in price again or bring about period price to have rebound. Those who supply is abundant with lower part cost props up stronger Chen Liang, before casting Chu Zhi, in C1905 predict for a long time will give priority to around 1950-2030 interval oscillation. Amylaceous respect pays close attention to environmental protection and stock up circumstance, see cost of near future raw material rise again whether drive starch one rebounds, fluctuant interval predicts to be between 2380-2480. The influence of the G20 conference that the near future still needs to pay close attention to commodity whole weak force and lunar base.
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