Good performance, black, full line rebound, continuity is ye

  • Jan, 11th 2019

Today (January 3), the domestic black department changed its yesterday's haze posture, and went out of a wave of rapid rebound. The spot market sentiment improved, but the overall increase was limited. The merchants kept the quotation, steel strip, billet and plate. A small rebound, other varieties based on steady adjustment.

The overall transaction situation is better than yesterday, the long-term low-price transaction is better, and individual steel mills can't seal the goods. Puyang, Handan Iron and Steel, Jinding, Yuanbaoshan, Jingye, Tang Wenfeng, Tang Zhonghou and Tiangang Medium Plate Plant received 45,000 tons, a significant increase of 38,500 tons compared with yesterday. Other varieties perform in general.

The following important news on the news today:

First, Langfang in Hebei Province launched a secondary emergency response. At the same time, Tangshan City implemented air pollution intensification measures: from today to January 20th at 24 o'clock on steel enterprises: in addition to the heating machine to ensure the heating of the steel enterprises, all the sintering machines are shut down, to ensure the heating of the steel enterprises to calculate the sintering machine to ensure the minimum production of heating Load, maximize the measures to stop production, increase the efficiency of pollution control facilities, and minimize pollutant emissions. Considering that the blast furnace is not limited, and most of the steel mills keep the inventory for a week or so, the sintering limit production has little effect on the actual production during this time.

Second, the infrastructure is exerted. According to the latest data, 26 new projects were started in 2018, with an investment of 338.2 billion yuan; a new line of 4,683 kilometers, of which 4,100 kilometers are high-speed rail. In the central and western regions, the investment in railway infrastructure was 371.4 billion yuan, accounting for 66.7% of the national railways; 16 new projects were started, with an investment scale of 167.6 billion yuan. In 2019, 6,800 kilometers of new lines will be put into operation, including 3,200 kilometers of high-speed rail. By the end of 2018, the national railway operating mileage reached more than 131,000 kilometers, of which high-speed rail was more than 29,000 kilometers. The investment in railways in 2019 is expected to reach 850 billion yuan, which may set a record for the annual investment of China Railway. Boost market confidence and expectations.

Third, the central bank expanded the scope of targeted RRR reduction, and it is expected to release 700 billion liquidity, and the overall RRR reduction is expected. The central bank released water in disguise and released liquidity, which eased market capital shortages, especially for small and micro enterprises to boost the market confidence.

In addition, before the holidays, the market cautiously dominated, steel traders and terminal replenishment were not much, and they were released after holidays.. In the past year, there was also the habit of replenishing the library before the Spring Festival. This year's Spring Festival is ahead of previous years, and it is supported by the conditions of stocking for certain purchases. Today's feedback terminal procurement has begun to increase, but the willingness of steel traders to winter storage is still not strong. The overall situation is in the wait-and-see stage, and the demand for winter storage has not been effectively stimulated. While the north enters the low season of demand, the construction site is basically in a state of stagnation, and there is still some resilience in the south. With the concentrated release of terminal demand after the holiday, the persistence of the latter is still to be observed, which is one of the important factors in the future price trend.

For the time being, this wave is still not strong, and there is a component of news hype. As the benefits are gradually digested, the price may return to the fundamentals of supply and demand.

From the perspective of inventory performance, market inventories increased significantly after the holidays, and the accumulated warehouse speed was basically the same as last year, but the overall demand was slightly better than the same period last year. If the accumulated speed is lower than expected, the price is still likely to rise, but it is limited by the willingness of the winter storage and the space above is limited. If the speed of the accumulated library is higher than expected and the demand continues to weaken, the rebound will last for a long time, and there is a possibility that the recovery will fall. Overall, the conditions for sharp adjustments before the year are not yet sufficient.

In terms of price, according to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, today, the average price of Ф25mm third-grade rebar in key cities in China is 3838 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is 4 yuan lower than yesterday; domestic key The average price of the city's 6.5mm high line was 4,072 yuan, down 2 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coil in key cities in China was 3,699 yuan, down 9 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in domestic key central cities It was 4,269 yuan, down 8 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in domestic key cities was 3,795 yuan, up 7 yuan from yesterday.

In terms of raw materials, today, Tangshan area Changli 150*150 ordinary carbon billet 3280 yuan, up 20 yuan compared with yesterday; Jingtang port 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 558 yuan, up 2 yesterday Yuan; Tangshan area of ​​the first-class metallurgical coke including the tax to the factory price of 2,150 yuan, unchanged from yesterday.