At present, the market for new foods has gradually increased, the spot price of corn has been continuously adjusted, and the purchase price of enterprises has fallen sharply. At the same time, the stock of live pigs and able sows continued to fall, and the overall negative corn feed consumption.
Dalian corn 1905 contract price began to sharply adjust after hitting the high point of 2028 on November 12, as of December 17, the 1905 contract closed at 1861 points, down 67 points from the high point of the year, down 3.30%. How will the future corn future price be interpreted?
Enterprises continuously cut corn purchase price
According to the latest data from the National Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, as of December 10, the main producing areas have acquired a total of 31.03 million tons of corn, a year-on-year decrease of 9.44 million tons. In terms of absolute quantity, this year's North corn purchases are less than the previous two years, but from the trend point of view, the acquisition of small peaks is gradually coming. The spot price of corn has recently been continuously adjusted. As of December 14, the northern new corn flat price fell further to 1,930 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton from last week, compared with 2030 yuan / ton on December 3, 100 yuan / ton; new corn prices in the southern port At 2060-2080 yuan / ton, Chen Liang fell 20-40 yuan / ton compared with the previous high. The deep processing enterprises in the northeast region have sharply lowered the purchase price of corn. Taking Cargill Biochemical as an example, as of December 14, its listing price has dropped to 1,790 yuan/ton, down by 50 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the cumulative high has dropped by 110 yuan/ton. .
The processing rate of deep processing enterprises is relatively high
In November, the number of live pigs fell, and the number of sows in the sows decreased. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the pig stocks in November decreased by 0.7% from the previous month and decreased by 2.9% compared with the same period last year. The number of able sows decreased by 1.3% from the previous month and decreased by 6.9% compared with the same period last year. Farming profits increased from the previous month. On December 14, 2018, the average profit per self-supporting farming was 123.75 yuan per head, an increase of 12.45% from the previous month, and the average profit per piglet purchased was 178.73 yuan, an increase of 11.78%. The monthly production of feed decreased from the previous month. In October, statistics from 180 feed companies tracked by the Feed Industry Association showed that total feed production fell by 3.0% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year. It is expected that the stock of pigs will remain at a low level in the later period, and it is difficult to significantly improve the feed demand for corn.
The operating rate of the deep processing industry has remained relatively high, and processing profits have been differentiated. According to a sample survey of 42 domestic corn alcohol enterprises in the world, the estimated operating rate of the industry is about 71.79%, down 0.28 percentage points from last week. According to a sample survey of 81 domestic starch companies, the starch industry operating rate is 75.8%. Last week, 75.4% rebounded by 0.4 percentage points, both at relatively high levels. According to relevant data, the theoretical profit per ton of corn starch produced by Jilin enterprises increased slightly to 190 yuan in the 50th week, the theoretical loss per ton of corn starch produced by Shandong enterprises was 9 yuan, and the theoretical loss per ton of corn alcohol produced in western Heilongjiang expanded to 200 yuan. .
Alternative cereal imports increase expected short-term market
After the G20 summit, Sino-US trade friction has eased, and the market generally expects a large increase in the replacement grain imports in the future. In terms of news, the early market rumors that a large number of imported Ukrainian corn was landed in Shandong. Last week, the relevant map of 150,000 tons of imported Ukrainian corn in Rizhao Port once attracted the attention of the market. At the same time, on December 14, it was reported that China is preparing to restart in January next year. US corn imports may purchase at least 3 million tons. Future imports of cereals (corn, sorghum, barley, DDGS, etc.) will be expected to increase, and the domestic corn market will be negative.
In short, on the supply side, the amount of new grain listed has gradually increased in late December, and the spot price has been continuously adjusted. On the demand side, the stocks of live pigs and able-bodied sows continued to fall, and the overall negative corn feed consumption; the processing rate of deep-processing enterprises was at a relatively high level, but the processing profits were divided, and the processing profit of alcohol enterprises was seriously reduced. In terms of substitution of grain imports, Sino-US trade friction has eased, and alternative grain imports are expected to increase the bearish market.